Modeling the water-energy-food nexus in the Indus River

of Pakistan

Y. C. Ethan Yang, Casey Brown, Claudia Ringler and Ghazi Alam

GWSP Conference May 2013

This study is supported by the Pakistan Strategy Support Program (PSSP)funded by USAID (pssp.ifpri.info)

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Background

The annual energy deficit is about 4,500 MW in Pakistan (MoWP, 2011)

The feasible 800 sites on the Indus River have a potential of 59,794 MW for hydropower generation. However, only 6,720 MW (11% of the total) has been developed (Siddiqi et al, 2012)

In order to understand the impact of increased hydropower generation on agricultural water use and food production, a modeling approach has been used in this study

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Daily Power Outages

9

10

10

38

27

72

42

35

39

16

49

18

24

3

9

0 20 40 60 80 100

Overall

Punjab

Sindh

KPK

Percentage of Households

0-6 Hours

7-12 Hours

13-18 Hours

18+ Hours

Source: IFPRI-IDS Household survey

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Model The Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR), a flow-

network model coded in GAMS-- has been modified into a multi-year version–Indus Basin Model Multi-Year (IBMY) to evaluate the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Indus Basin of Pakistan

The basin irrigates approximately 18 million ha in four provinces; most irrigation is d/s of HP in the basin; officially irrigation has precedence over energy use

The model includes the 3 major hydropower reservoirs: Mangla (1000 MW), Tarbela (3478 MW) and Chashma (184 MW); and one major run-of-the-river station: Ghazi-Barotha (1450 MW)

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Model

The node-link river basin model

6/13Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

IBMR - Modeling structureTarbela

Mangla

Ghazi-Barotha

Chashma

Potential reservoir

Potential reservoir

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Model

Objective function

Newly added

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Model--Hydropower Baseline Setting:

• Inflow: 1961-2010 monthly flow from 9 tributaries• Reservoir storage and groundwater tables are carried on

to the next year• Crop price: 2008-09 average price• Electricity price: 10 Rs. per KWH

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Model--Irrigation

Agriculture partCrop production in Punjab Crop production in Sindh

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Alternative Scenarios• Alternative energy and irrigation policies

– Baseline run– Maximum agricultural production– Maximum hydropower generation

• Investment in New HP Storage/Production– Current storage – New storage (~12 MAF, 7,300 MW)

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Results Tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower

exist

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Current system With new storage

Agricultural profit (billion Rs.)

Hydro

pow

er

pro

fit

(billion R

s.)

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000470

480

490

500

510

520

530With new storage

Agricultural profit (billion Rs.)

Hyd

rop

ow

er

pro

fit

(billion

R

s.)

2400 2450 2500 2550 2600 2650240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310Current system

Agricultural profit (billion Rs.)

Hyd

rop

ow

er

pro

fit

(billion

Rs.)

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Results

Maximum agricultural profit

KPK PUNJAB SIND BLCH INDUS0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Current New storage

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral p

rofi

t (b

illion

Rs.)

MAN

GLA-R

BASHA-R

TARBEL

A-R

GHAZI-R

KALABA...

CHASM

A-R

INDUS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Current New storage

Hyd

roele

cti

rc p

rofi

t (b

illion

Rs.)

Agricultural profit Hydroelectric profit

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Results

Maximum hydroelectric profit

KPK PUNJAB SIND BLCH INDUS0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Current New storage

Ag

ricu

ltu

ral

pro

fit

(bil

lio

n R

s.)

MAN

GLA-R

BASHA-R

TARBEL

A-R

GHAZI

-R

KALABAGH

-R

CHASM

A-R

INDUS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Current New storage

Hyd

roele

ctir

c p

rofi

t (b

illi

on

Rs.

)

Agricultural profit Hydroelectric profit

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Conclusion

Baseline result is close to maximum agricultural profit which reflects the water allocation rules in the basin

Even under current relatively low storage/HP development and u/s location of HP & d/s location of irrigation, tradeoffs exist; new storage could significantly increase tradeoffs

To increase hydropower production without jeopardizing irrigation, adding new storage under the current water allocation scheme is the most recommended approach

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Conclusion

Model limitations• We did not model the entire energy market• We maximized annual hydropower production;

maximizing winter production, where the deficit is largest, would result in a larger tradeoffs

• While we maximized HP or IRR, we left the rule curve unchanged. Changes in the rule curve in favor of HP would change final outcomes

Future studies• Changes in HP rule curves• Climate change impact• Impact of change in water sharing policies