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“I LIVE IN THE FUTURE & HERE’S HOW IT WORKS”*
Mick Fleming, President
Spring 2012
* Nick Bilton’s new book
SEALs New Planning Model
Today’s Grand Observations
(and Gross Generalizations)
The ContextThe WorkThe Life
MEGA TRENDS – THE CONTEXT
Government In the Economy Governments (quasi) as largest
employers, customer, developers Selecting winners and losers through
TARP, but also every day (green, BRAC, disasters…)
The Context
International Influence
Brazilians buying Miami Arab spring to European spring Japanese retirees NFL & NBA Negotiations Global ownership & investment
The Context
Demographics
Pyramids and rectangles Millennials issues Minority-Majority nation 2037 Boomers aren’t going away Cruelty of migrations “Anglo” Chamber???
The Context
Impact of Recession???
Intuition about impact may be wrong Data indicates remarkable stability Your performance better than your
community’s The work is harder, but you figured it
out
The Context
“It’s the [next]economy, stupid”
Sector transformations Talent specialization over “available”
workers Wild fluctuations in markets &
preferences Impact of complete mobile
connectivity
The Context
IS THERE A “BUSINESS COMMUNITY”
ANYMORE?
MEGA TRENDS – THE WORK
Membership Renewal rates back to 2008 levels (84%) Member count not yet back to pre-recession Penetration down Dues = 55% of small CCs, but only 24% for
bigs Average dues unchanged for 4 years Gross revenue per member actually up
The Work
Other Ops & Finance
Huge ranges of net income and net assets No investment in policy or membership
growth Boards are huge – especially with ex
officios Vast majority of chambers are “just”
chambers The Work
Policy Field of Play Demise of civil discourse –
“fundamental divide” Every Issue Viewed Thru COG Lens Employer-Employee Relationship Corporate Indecision?
The Work
Politics & Policy Can you afford to play? Can you afford not to? The safety and power of coalition
positions Read the book
Your possible political play (and the price)
The Work
THE LONG TAIL
Communications Revolution
FALSEFAILURE
Communications Revolution
Mass Personalization ‘SEND ALL’ button of questionable
value Mobile EVERYTHING Velvet Rope Model dying??? Social media – As a profession . . .
We suck
The Work
How People Learn & Acquire Info Need it? Go get it. JIT knowledge Risks of the “send all” button Can’t assume any “clip” ever goes
away Influencing the influentials Lists disguised as wisdom Questioning the value of in-person
meetings
Community Advancement &Economic Development
Three I’s Three P’s –
The Work
MEGA TRENDS – THE LIFE
The Life
The two biggest fictions in chamber work
1. The CEO’s to-do list/calendar
2. The staffer’s job description
The Life
Impatience At All Levels
Members impatient for impact Boards impatient with pace of
progress Staffs impatient with lack of
opportunities Pols impatient with slow chamber
consensus Sponsors impatient with slow ROI
The Life
The Life
The Life
Turnover rate and tenure. . .the same in large chambers and small
PLATO’S REPUBLIC?
SO WHAT? NOW WHAT?
- LOOK PAST THE NEXT WHATEVER
- NIMBLEOSITY (KAPS)
- YOUNG AT HEART
- PERSONALIZE THE EXPERIENCE
The Legacy:
Wherever there’s a guy . . .
I LIVE IN THE FUTURE & HERE’S HOW IT WORKS
Mick Fleming, PresidentAmerican Chamber of Commerce Executives
[email protected] 703/998-3553