The Climate analogues and its online platform

• Compare locations based on similarities in precipitation and temperature but designed to identify analogues based on other features data (soil, social and economic conditions)

• Williams et al. (2007) state that there is likely to be 30% novel climates under climate change That means that there are 70% of already existing climates projected to 2100 for sites!

• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds– GCM projections– Crop models, household models, farming system

models

The Climate Analogue Concept

• Still large uncertainties remain regarding future projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on farming systems, especially at the local level.

• Until now, the adaptive capacity of communities is a factor rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on which policy makers often rely

• The use of climate analogues for locating future climates today can ground models in field-based realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate interventions.

Benefits of an analogue approach

Possible analogues

BACKWARDAdaptation options

• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?

MY SITE(future)

OTHER SITE (s)(current)

Possible analogues

FORWARDAdaptation options

• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the future?

MY SITE(current)

OTHER SITE (s)(future)

Possible analogues

NONEAdaptation options

• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the world currently?

MY SITE(current)

OTHER SITE (s)(current)

The analogues online interface

Built upon stable platforms

• Our analogues R package• And powered by

• Works under Firefox, Google Chrome and IE

ESRI

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues

1. DEFINE SITE AND CLIMATIC DATA ZONE

2. DEFINE DIRECTION, METHOD, GS, LAG,NORM, THRESHOLD

3. DEFINE SCENARIO, GCMs, VARIABLES, WEIGHTS

4.

Depending on the settings… calculation time is between 2 min and …

You can then…

• Continue by running a new analysis• Download report & results• Get a PNG file for your report, or

presentation• Get the actual R code used• … visually manipulate results

Let’s see an example onlinehttp://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues Reference site: Kagera Bassin, Uganda

Watch the videoThe CCAFS climate analogue tool - new version

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlWznCElKME