LTC, Annual Forum, Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California, 05/22/2009, Jon Harrison

Role of GIS in SB375 Implementation Strategies

Greener California: Impacts of Senate Bill 375 and Winning Strategies for Southern California

Leonard Transportation Center Forum

May 22, 2009

Jon HarrisonESRI

Topics

• SB375’s niche in the climate change response• Where does GIS fit?• Example applications

SB 375’s Nichereduce VMT through coordinated land use / transportation planning

• AB 32• ARB’s Scoping Plan• SB 375 focus on VMT

reduction

Cleaner fuels and better mileage will not be enough…

ARB Emissions Inventory

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2000 2004 2020 2050Year

Mill

ion

Met

ric

Tons

(CO

2 Equ

ival

ent)

1990 Emission Baseline

~173 MMT CO2e Reduction

80% Reduction

~341 MMT CO2e

Carbon Dioxide Reduction Targets – AB32 Scoping Plan

• Defines programs for achieving 2020 target

– 63 MMT via various vehicle related programs• Only 5 MMT through VMT reduction (SB375)

– 49 MMT via various Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency programs

– 61 MMT via other programs, some TBD

Goals of SB 375

• Use the regional transportation planning process to help achieve AB 32 Greenhouse Gas (GhG) reduction targets

• Use CEQA streamlining as an incentive to encourage infill projects

• Coordinate the regional housing needs allocation process with the regional transportation planning process.

Better coordination of land use, transportation and evironmental planning may be the greatest benefit of SB375

SB 375 Information Flow

Source: Center for Geographic Information Science Research, Cal Poly Pomona

Challenges for Meeting Goals

• Data – many sources and formats

• Modeling tools – multiple interrelated transportation, landuse and environmental factors

• Verification – the plans for regional VMT reduction are subject to ARB approval

• Monitoring of progress – localities, regions and ARB will need to track progress during 8 year cycle

Different stakeholders have different interests

Role of GIS in Implementing SB 375

Provide an enterprise approach:

• Data Model – Manage land use, transportation, environmental, other data

• Spatial Analysis Tools – Facilitate better planning, analysis, verification, monitoring

• Web-based Modeling – Integrate multiple models from multiple sources based on geography

• Visuallize Results – Provide comprehensive view and site specific views from the same data resources

GIS is used to address common organizational challenges

GIS Organizes and Manages Geographic Knowledge

Into components that are easy to understand, share and reuse

Workflows

Geographic Data

GeoprocessingModels

Maps & Visualization

Metadata

Data Models . . . in a Geodatabase

Many GIS Components for Climate Change Exist

• Components:– Data model– Workflows– Geoprocessing models and applications– Interface to other models

. . . Provide the information and science

API

Transportation Models are Part of GIS Workflow

Web as Platform for SB375 Solutions

GeoWeb. . . An Agile Framework for Collaboration & Integration of Systems

Supporting• Collaborative Computing• Service Integration (Mashups)• User Contributed Content• Distributed Data Management

Many Participants• Interconnected• Interoperable• Integrative• Dynamic

DistributedCollaboration

Map Services

Web 2.0

Web 1.0

GIS supports information integration for stakeholders

GIS Software and models

City / County MPO ARB

• General Plan• Climate Action Plan• CEQA compliance• CEQA Incentives• RHNA goals

• Develop SCS• Develop APS• Public Hearings• Monitor Progress

• Set Regional Targets• Approve SCS/APS• Overall AB 32

implementation

Integrate GIS from many sources

Integrate to statewide level

Local GIS

Development Community / Public

Examples of Applying GIS to range of SB375 Needs

SACOG BluePrint Project

• Started with a Long Range VisioningProject

• Alternatives were defined aroundLand Use, Transportation, OpenSpace, Quality of Life Issues

• Participants worked with Maps,Statistics and Models run by staff

• Workshops held in Each City,County, and then a Regional Workshop

SACOG BluePrint Project: Models

GIS Databases:

•Parcel Level Land Use / General Plans

•Parcel Level Employment

•Parcel Specific Rents and Land Prices

Travel Demand Model

Land Use Model (F)

Energy Use Model

Performance Measures

ROI Model

Fiscal Impact

CO2 Model (F)Water

Demand Model

Public Health Model (F)

Public Input:

•Land Use Changes

•Housing Densities

•TOD

SACOG PLACE3S MODEL

SACOG BluePrint Project

Participation: 3,000 in 3 Different Sites

SANDAG Climate Action Planning (CAP)

• Contract with the California Energy Commission (CEC)

• Pilot project for developing a greenhouse gas reduction strategy

Beth Jarosz, Analyst

Land Use andTransportation

Policies

Demographic and EconomicForecasting Model

(DEFM)

InterregionalCommuting Model

(IRCM)

Cities/County Forecast(UDM)

Transportation Forecasting Model(TRANSCAD)

Land Use and Transportation Forecasting Process

• Stored in Landcore geodatabase• Assigns current and planned land use and

“capacity” (maximum number of housing units and/or jobs) to each parcel of land

Land Use andTransportation

Policies Used ArcGIS to• Develop model inputs:

Land useTransportation

• Review the output• Display the output for policy-makers


GIS input: Developing Alternative Land Use Scenarios

• Used ArcMap to select transit stations with high “production” and “attraction”


GIS input: Developing Alternative Land Use Scenarios

• ½ mile buffer around selected transit stations

• Selected all parcels within buffer that were not cut off from station by a “walk barrier”

• Changed planned land use mix and increased density in these target areas


GIS Output: Base-Case Growth Projections:


Housing Change 2010-2030

Jobs Change 2010-2030

GIS output: “Smart Growth” Alternative:Housing Change 2010-2030


GIS output: “Low Carbon” Alternative:


Job Change 2010-2030

Housing Change 2010-2030

Preliminary Results for Land Use and Transportation Scenario

Strategy GHG Emission ReductionBusiness as usual N/ASmart Growth Land Use 1.4%Enhanced Transit 2.4%TDM Measures 16.5%

Telecommuting 4.3%Zonal Parking Fees 11.8%Other Measures 1.8%


Center for Neighborhood Technology

Land use and Transportation • True Cost of Home Ownership• Reduced Vehicle Miles Traveled

Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology

“Micro Scale” Applications of GIS to Climate Action Planning

• Evaluate inclusion of a 4-Ds modeling component into transportation modeling

– Density of development

– Diversity of uses (e.g. mix of housing, commercial, office, etc..)

– Distance to transit– Design for walk/bike

(e.g. intersection density, sidewalk completeness)


INTEGRATED vs. Isolated• Whole Systems View – multi-

disciplinary analysis & representation of a complex world (science based modeling)

• Integration of multiple technologies –the Web with GIS, Spreadsheets with Databases, Hand Drawings with CAD/GIS – Digital Design

• 2D and 3D integration, Multiple Representations and means of communication; Local to Regional to Global scale Integration

Themes in the New Generation of “4D” Tools

EDAW / AECOM

ACCESSIBLE to a Broad Range of Users

• Tools directly in the hands of decision makers, stakeholders and planners within a framework that brings together a range of experts

• User friendly interfaces that are workflow based ; use of objects/processes increasingly similar to the real world

Themes in New Generation of “4D” Tools

EDAW / AECOM

CTG’s Sustainable Communities Model (SCM ™)

www.ctg-net.com

Community Viz ®http://www.communityviz.com

Criterion’s INDEX PlanBuilder®

What If?™ Software

CLIMATE CHANGE GENERAL PLANNING

EDAW’s SSIM

http://www.edaw.com

EDAW’s GHG Mitigation Tool

URBEMIS

IPLACE3S

ICLEI’s CACP

MetroQuest

www.envisiontools.com

MODELS/CalculatorsSupporting

Scenario-based, Multi-disciplinary Integrated Planning Decision Support Tools

Criterion’s INDEX PlanBuilder®www.criterion.com

UrbanSIM™

Examples of 4D – Sustainable Development Tools

EDAW / AECOM

UC Davis”UPLAN

What is SSIM?SSIM is an integrated set of tools that can be used to :

– Assess Sustainability levels using Indicators for a development

– Take a Comprehensive view of Sustainability by addressing all relevant themes such as built environments, ecology & ecosystem services, socio-economics, transportation and water systems

– Use Integrated whole systems modeling incorporating interactions between themes, and cost-benefit analysis

– Select and Evaluate various measures and packages for their performance in improving sustainability benchmarks

– Create Programs that are a combination of various packages and compare alternative programs

– Generate easy to use Dashboards to compare and present sustainability information

Sustainable Systems Integration Method (SSIM)

EDAW / AECOM

SSIM includes Workflow Based Interactive Dashboards with a variety of tables, charts, dials and menus to present analysis results, and allow interactive gaming of sustainability options.

Key Feature – Interactive Dashboard

EDAW / AECOM

4D Applications: Ability to Launch Models from Web Browsers

• Fast• Intuitive• Web Centric

. . . Accesses Maps, Models and Globe ServicesArcGIS Online

ArcGIS Server

Visualization

Mapping

Analysis Tasks

4D Applications :Urban Planning Solutions

• Increased education to the public

• Engage the public• Common methodology for

3D simulations across agencies

• Tool to assist in the communication of redevelopment projects

• Ease the management and distribution of large data sets

Transportation Models -Traditional Approach

Travel DemandModel VMT Estimates Emissions

Estimates

This approach is what is typically done for an RTP or a General Plan.The travel model is usually run, perhaps with some modifications. VMT values are obtained, which produce emissions estimates. Typically, thereis little to no feedback.

Source: Christopher Gray, Fehr & Peers

Transportation Models – Refined Input

Parcel Based Land Use Model Updated Land

Use Data

Improved Travel Demand

ModelVMT Estimates

Emissions Estimates

Alternative Testing

This approach would want to apply GIS-based land use models to provide refined land use data input into a travel model. The travel model would provide VMT estimates. There would be extensive alternative testing.

Modify Model-Replicate Speeds

-Smart Growth

Non-Model Adjustments

-Transit -TDM


Transportation Models – Refined VMT Generation Inputs

Parcel Based Land Use Model

(ESRI)

Household and

employee VMT factors

VMT EstimatesFor City only

Emissions Estimates

Travel modelVMT estimates

for regional travelonly

Alternative Testing

This approach would still use a travel model to get VMT estimates for regional travel. Local VMT would be developed using household and employee VMT factors to determine VMT within the City itself.


Conclusion: GIS Supports Collaborative Decision Making for SB375

• Many different stages, and processes involved in SB 375 land use/transportation planning

• Different participants and different tools at each stage

• GIS provides tools and technologies that support and integrate all of these processes

Community Visioning RTIP Planning ProcessPublic / CARB Review & Approaval EIR Analysis

Thank You

[email protected]

www.esri.com

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.esri.com/