Component A3 –

Capacity Assessment and Awareness Raising on Climate Change in Tajikistan Livia Bizikova (IISD) 

What is the Participatory Scenario Development ?

A structured process used to identify future trends based on information and perception.

Includes diverse stakeholders and sources of information.

Result in a Scenario / Context (current / future)Can develop policies, validate sectorial plan,

identify needs of diverse stakeholders groups.

Objectives of the PSD

Build capacity on climate change impacts of key stakeholders.

Discuss the consequences of the CC Impacts.What are the adaptation needs.Validate the priority areas in the SPCR, to

ensure that the identified priorities are aligned needs of the communities.

Complement the priorities areas of the SPCR with community adaption needs.

Including the SPRC activities SPCR priority

GBAO Khatlon Sughd RRS1.Build institutional capacity and awareness of climate change among stakeholder groups

X X X X

2. Improve the national hydro-meteorological monitoring system to provide timely warnings of dangerous events and support water management

X X X X

3. Implement a climate science and modelling program*4. Replicate and scale up existing effective land management practices

X X

5. Rehabilitate the Kairakkum HPP as a pilot X X

6. Implement climate-proofing measures … Khatlon target area and Pyanj tributaries X

5

Ключевые элементы семинара ПСУ

Affiliations of workshop participants

Example of outcomes and participation

Photoa: Rayhon Jonbekova and Livia Bizikova

Capacity to Adapt

The participants perceived: Communities have low adaptive capacity (limited experience

and resources) Lack of capacity to (re)act. Vulnerable impacted most. (Loss of assets during disasters) Reoccurring impacts undermine their coping capacity. Limited capacity to rebuild their livelihood in either the original

area or a resettled area. While all these current and potential future impacts require

adaptation measures, in the case of Tajikistan, it is important to link adaptations with investments in development so that the two work in synergy to improve resilience.

Cascading Impacts e.g. Droughts

Increased migration Conflicts

Increased poverty among vulnerable people

Limited development

Increased migration Conflicts

Increased poverty among vulnerable people

Limited development

Long-term land degradationSalinization of land

Degradation of forest and pastures

Increased mortality of wild animals, cattle and bees

Long-term land degradationSalinization of land

Degradation of forest and pastures

Increased mortality of wild animals, cattle and bees

Reduced yields/income

Food deficit Increased rates of diseaseProblems with hydropower

Reduced yields/incomeFood deficit

Increased rates of diseaseProblems with hydropower

Drought

Reduced water stockReduced river runoffReduced irrigation

Drought

Reduced water stockReduced river runoffReduced irrigation

Social

consequences

Environmental

consequences

Economic

consequences

Adaptations - DroughtAdaptation  

GBAO Khatlon Sughd RRS

InfrastructureAddress distribution of land resources X X X XCreate additional water reservoirs X     XCreate small-scale or settlement-based water storage   X X XConduct vaccinations X X X  Improve access to and use of climate-resistant seeds     X XProvide public pipes and access to clean drinking water   X    Ecosystem-basedPlant forests to hold moisture X X X XPromote cultivation of drought-resistant cultures X X X XPlant forests in sensitive areas     X XEncourage agroforestry to produce food or fodder   X X  Use mountain torrents, glaciers or snowfields in dry years   X   XInstitutions, strategy and capacity Analyze the reasons for droughts and their cycles X X X XIncrease capacity through education (practical trainings) X X X XDraft development strategies X   X XDevelop a viable emergency strategy for infectious diseases X X X  Provide support to farmers (financing) X   X XEstablish centres to grow climate-resistant cultures X X   XInform farmers about weather changes such as hail   X   XConduct local monitoring X   X  

Link SPCR / PSD Outcomes

To improve adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Infrastructure development (e.g. Water supply) Ecosystem-based actions (e.g. Agroforestry) National Adaptation Develop Strategy Strengthen institutions (e.g. Public and Private) Capacity-development activities (e.g. sector,

stakeholders.)

Many of these identified adaptations and development goals are closely linked to the planned SPCR investments and actions.

**However larger-scale and more actions are needed

Principles for SPRC success.

Align SPRC outcomes with local people’s needs and capacities

Strong collaboration at the local and regional level.

Strong coordination with Jamoats and other agencies

Integration capacity building activities Consider synergies between actions (i.e.

focus on outcomes)

Capacity Building - Example

Future considerations...

Increase assessments of climate change impacts on water resources, key agricultural crops (commercial and food), and natural ecosystems.

Develop vulnerability maps for hazards and capacities and identify hot spots - areas with high levels of hazards or low capacities. Provide this information to the public and stakeholder groups and ensure that projects for relevant adaptations are being implemented in these areas.

Development project screening for their ability to contribute to adaptation.

Assess vulnerabilities and needed adaptation measures in health care and identify current public health challenges as well as future trends and adaptation needs.

Develop a key set of priority adaptations that could be progressively implemented over next 10 to 20 years .

Thank you for your attention