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LECTURE L04ADJECENT POSSIBLE
Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
The S-curve
Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the
technology
Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law
The Law of Accelerating ReturnsEvolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to
create the next stage
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time
Complexity of Technology
Local and linear
Global and Exponential
Combinatorial
Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology becomes a source for new
innovations
Web of Technology
Products are made using different parts using many technologies -
confection of ideas
Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from simpler system that worked
“I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read
Toaster
Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project
"Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster. He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it." Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992
“And that was something that reoccurred throughout the project, was, the smaller the scale you want to work on, the further back
in time you have to go” - Thomas Thwaites
Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by layer, from simple to complex
technologies
Combinatory Process
New technology is created by combining other existing
technology in new ways
The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is mastered, it will “disappear” as
something obvious and trivial, and other more useful things that are
built on top of it
The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things thatshould “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance
Adjacent Possible
Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson
Ideas usually come at similar timeWho invented the telephone?
Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used to build new technologies
Why was the computer invented in the 1940s and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!
Charles Babbage worked on his difference engine and later analytical engine In 1822-1871
Ada Lovelace influenced or even conceived the concept ot programmable computer
Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the components that exist in
his environmentSteven Johnson
Image source: http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes were used to build computers
The Second Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914 shaw innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries
Nikolai Kondratiev
Kondratiev waves are supposedly cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy
Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Kontrativ Wave
Source: Wikipedia, Kondratiev Wave
Wave Years
1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842
2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897
3 Age of steel, electricity and internal combustion 1897–1939
4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982
5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??
Kontrativ Wave
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current and dominant technology will highly influence and restrict new innovations
Technology Cramming
Technology Cramming
Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product is restricted by the
prevailing technology, but in the second, there is
something new
Timeline
Each wave creates number of new inventions
Timeline
Let’s play a game
Timeline when?
Submarine Navigation The Safe Cork Rubber eraser The brick
-10.000 TODAY
The brick -7000
Navigation -4000
Cork 1695
The Safe 1844
Submarine 1775
Rubber eraser 1770
1000
The brick
The safe
Submarine
Rubber eraser
Navigation
Cork
slide rule 1624
Telescope
Ceramics
hourglass
Violin
Typewriter
Barbed wire
Telescope 1668
Violin 1548
Typewriter 1873
Barbed wire 1874
Hourglass 900
Ceramics -6000
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L05 Innovation
