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Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values
Technology
Samuel Butler published 1859
a letter to the editor of the Press
in New Zealand, called
“Darwin among the Machines”
Kingdom of the machines
IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR
IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz
2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz
30 years of product improvements
iPad2asfastasCray2supercomputer,fractionofthesize
Readmore:http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011
30 years of product improvements
The total amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains
460 billion tons
Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm
Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation
The Long Nose of Innovation
Growth ofTechnology
Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage.
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress (at today's rate).”
- Ray Kurzweil
The S-curveBased on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle
Improvements in performance varies
throughout the life of the technology
The S-curve Improvements in performance varies
throughout the life of the technology
Problem is that people in the R&D phase may
not be right in the growth phase
Technology Life Cycle
The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
In the early days
The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market
In the later days
The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
Technology Life Cycle
DISRUPTIVE STRESS
TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS
DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY
NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE