Understanding Peak Enrollment Numbers

Examining peak enrollment data used by School Closure Task Force

Katonah-Lewisboro 10/16/2013

Peak vs. Projected Enrollment

• Included in 10 Year Demography report• Used in PowerPoint presentation for 10/8

public meeting. • Created by Statistical Forecasting, LLC.• Weighed Heavily In deliberations of School

Utilization committee.

http://klschooldistrict.org/Assets/School_Closure_Task_Force/katonah-lewisboro_report_with_10_year_projections.pdf?t=635131197728200000http://klschooldistrict.org/Assets/School_Closure_Task_Force/100813_School_Closure_Public_Hearing-1.pdf?t=6351685503220000

A closer look at 2 schools

ANY UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES?

Any Unique Circumstances?

The same kids are being counted in 2 schools

Before and after redistricting

At best, this is misleading

Adjustments

• Use less dramatic numbers• Use post redistricting numbers• Median enrollment for years 1999-2013• Average enrollment for 1999-2013

Peak Numbers = Misleading

  Peak # Used Median AverageIncrease Miller 629 384 421Katonah 518 500 483Lewisboro 537 463 454Meadow Pond 446 398 388