Geographic Information Systems to assess climate change impacts on

crop biodiversityJulián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis

International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)

• Climate change: why? where? when?

• Impacts on crop management and suitability

• Impacts on major threats of crops (P/D)

• Impacts on wild plant species

• Challenges and opportunities

Contents

Climate change: why? where? When?

• When will climate begin changing?

…It already began

Climate change: why? where? When?

• Why?: – Population growth– Expansion of

agriculture and industries

– Non environmentally friendly technologies

Greenhouse gases

outbreaks

RESULTED IN

Climate change: why? where? When?

• So, how do we know what WILL happen?– Global Climate Models (GCMs) use cell based

atmospheric algorithms to simulate earth processes

… and produce future predictions based on historical measurements…

Climate change: why? where? When?

• However, predictions involve uncertainty– Emission scenarios - Different models

Climate change: why? where? When?

– The 21 models show different pictures though

Climate characteristic

Climate Seasonality

General climate change description

General climate

characteristics

The rainfall increases from 701 millimeters to 861.66 millimeters in 2050 passing through 714.42 in 2020Temperatures increase and the average increment in 2050 equals to 8.41 ºC passing through an increment of 1.57 ºC in 2020The mean daily temperature range increases from 11.19 ºC to 12.24 ºC in 2050The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 10 months

Average Global Trends of Climate Change

Extreme conditions

The maximum temperature of the year increases from 25.91 ºC to 33.09 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 6.39 ºC in 2050The minimum temperature of the year increases from -9.07 ºC to 0.68 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 10.17 ºC in 2050The wettest month gets wetter with 151.26 millimeters instead of 116.42 millimeters while the quarter gets wetter by 71.75 mm in 2050The driest month gets drier with 20.51 millimeters instead of 20.6 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 14.5 mm in 2050

These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 18 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information

Overall this climate becomes less seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and more seasonal in precipitation

Variability between models

The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 13.67%Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detectedThe coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 6.98%Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected

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Month

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Current precipitation

Precipitation 2050

Precipitation 2020Mean temperature 2020

Mean temperature 2050

Current mean temperature

Maximum temperature 2020Maximum temperature 2050

Current maximum temperature

Minimum temperature 2020

Minimum temperature 2050Current minimum temperature

Climate change: why? where? When?

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1.0

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-200.0 -100.0 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0

Precipitation

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India Myanmar Burma Mexico Dominican Republic Rwanda Brazil Uganda Korea Guatemala United States Colombia

1870 Baseline

• Where? Well… changes depend on geography• Everywhere warmer… but not necessarily drier

Climate change impacts on crop suitability

Banana niche modeling (EcoCrop)

2020

Climate change impacts on crop suitability

• Are there winners and losers?

Cassava

Maize

2050

Winners those who adapt

quickest and most effectively

Suitability in Cauca (Colombia)

• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050

• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

Mid-altitudezones

Site-specific agriculture is required for different zones (each zone could be a special case)

Climate change impacts on crop suitability

• Altitudinal shifts

Coffee in Colombia

Beans in Africa

Rice in Asia

Tetraploidbananas

Climate change impacts on crop suitability

Triploid

bananas

Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases

• Insects become indicators of climatic changes (migration-adaptation)– Moth in mount Kinabalu (Borneo) have moved upwards

trying to “follow” their climates

(I-Ching Chen et al, 2009)

Evidence of migration due to climatic changes

Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases

• Two cases– ONE: Black Sigatoka and banana

Climatic

likelihood

Impacts on major threats of crops: pests and diseases

• TWO: Cassava pests (niche modeling)

Green Mite

Whitefly

Impacts on wild plant species

Impacts on wild plant species

SpeciesCurrent

suitabilityFuture

suitabilityChange in suitability

V. angivensis 80.538 67.949 -12.589V. antunesii 76.352 35.958 -40.394V. bequaertii 79.832 67.406 -12.426V. bosseri 82.059 73.734 -8.325V. debanensis 79.933 72.655 -7.278V. decipiens 75.975 55.087 -20.888V. desmodioides 73.845 77.540 3.695V. dolomitica 78.444 72.228 -6.215V. gazensis 78.622 66.727 -11.894V. haumaniana 75.494 49.858 -25.636V. hosei 80.250 80.241 -0.008V. juncea 77.745 65.347 -12.398V. juruana 81.014 70.671 -10.343V. keraudrenii 82.710 62.011 -20.699V. kok ii 79.517 65.286 -14.230V. laurentii 76.191 69.454 -6.737V. longifolia 82.900 95.013 12.112V. longissima 79.393 41.335 -38.058V. monantha 79.678 72.391 -7.287V. mudenia 78.695 62.126 -16.569V. mungo 78.743 71.590 -7.153V. nuda 77.000 55.481 -21.519V. phoenix 77.600 54.062 -23.539V. procera 76.311 31.000 -45.310V. pygmaea 79.001 56.281 -22.720V. richardsiae 80.586 60.352 -20.234V. stenophylla 79.432 88.587 9.155V. umbellata 72.416 81.737 9.321V. venulosa 82.833 47.650 -35.183V. virescens 77.246 83.864 6.618

Not threatenedPartially threatenedHighly threatened

SpeciesChange in area

of distribution (%)Predicted state

in 2055

batizocoi -100 Extinctcardenasii -100 Extinctcorrentina -100 Extinctdecora -100 Extinctdiogoi -100 Extinctduranensis -91 Threatenedglandulifera -17 Stablehelodes -100 Extincthoehnii -100 Extinctkempff-mercadoi -69 Near-Threatenedkuhlmannii -100 Extinctmagna -100 Extinctmicrosperma -100 Extinctpalustris -100 Extinctpraecox -100 Extinctstenosperma -86 Threatenedvillosa -51 Near-Threatened

Arachis Vigna

Conservation needs

Impacts on wild plant species – in-situ or ex-situ conservation?

Migration of species

Decadal climate change 2000 – 2100, one GCM

Trajectories of wild populations to “follow” their climate

Two parameters:

Max. migration rate

Plasticity

Impacts on wild plant species• Migrations: visualization for worldwide users

– When each of the specimens die?– How much does each specimen need to move to survive?

Challenges and opportunities• Now we know that climate is changing, and hence

will depend on us to develop adaptations

• Wild relatives to become endangered, however, novel traits may become available for crop breeding

Millets

Potato

Wheat

Potential in dry areas Potential in specific altitude zones Low evidence of traits

Challenges and opportunities

• Greater interdependence for agricultural biodiversity

• Adapt technologies to different areas and right decisions at the right time are needed: migration, management, crop shifts

• Agro-ecosystems need to be resilient to changes

• Cover the whole picture and not only a part of it

• Crop breeding is a fundamental issue to be addressed (priorities by crop and zone)

THANKS!!!

Contact: j.r.villegas@cgiar.org

a.jarvis@cgiar.org