ITU Telecom 2013 Workshop: New Telecom Opportunities in Voice and Messaging

New Opportunities

in Voice and Messaging

ITU Telecom World 2013, BangkokDean Bubley & Martin Geddes

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About Disruptive Analysis

London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm

Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent

Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007

Critic of RCS since 2008

Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012

Report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Nov 2013

Workshops on WebRTC, Future of Voice & TelcoOTT

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and

Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013November 2013

https://twitter.com/disruptivedean

http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/

About Martin Geddes Consulting

Strategy consulting on broadband, voice and cloud services

Industry thought leader – Sprint, BT, Telco 2.0

Focus on network performance and next-gen voice services

Blogging and speaking on OTT and Future of Voice since 2003

Co-founder and Executive Director of Hypervoice Consortium

Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT

Twitter @martingeddes Free newsletter: martingeddes.com



https://twitter.com/martingeddes

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Declaration of relevant business interests

Martin:

Board member: Voxygen

Client: HarQen

Advisory board: VoiceSage

Business advisor: Predictable Network Solutions

Paid by Hypervoice Consortium members

Many other consulting clients

Dean:

Many research and consulting clients across telecoms ecosystem

(too many to list them all here!)

Advisor: Voxygen, Temasys, Movirtu



A map of the „new world‟ of voice



Agenda

Overview of the Future of Voice (Martin)

The Death of Ubiquity (Dean)

Beyond telephony: Value-added voice & Hypervoice (Martin)

Beyond telephony: WebRTC (Dean)

So what and what next for telcos?



Overview of the

Future of Voice

Telephony is like a Marks & Spencer sandwich

Perishable product

Beautiful packaging

Own-branded only

No personalisation

“Hold the mayo…”

The highest quality…

…but at a high price

November 2013

Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating



2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

“Telepocalypse”




2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

Slow growth of OTTs & UC

Slow shift of TDM to IP for voice

Lots of good ideas, hard to implement

Broadband and smartphone explosion…

…but no change to core telephony offer




2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

First

Future of Voice

Workshop




2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

Today


Two years ago

Predicting

“peak telephony”

Now

Volume & value

declines in

mature markets




Two years ago

Risk of voice

over-supply

Now

Risk of voice

under-demand




Two years ago

OTT =

threat

Now

OTT =

opportunity




Two years ago

Voice-in-apps

as concept

Now

APIs, WebRTC &

cloud telephony




Two years ago

4G voice &

messaging

doubts

Now

VoLTE and RCS

problems real



Mainstream opinion is finally catching up…

“After decades of stagnation, the voice landscape is undergoing

a seismic shift. Migration is in full swing to richer IP-based

communication, and Web real-time communication is expected

to significantly disrupt the value chain.

CSPs should reassess their strategy

to avoid being disenfranchised.”

“The Future Evolution of CSP Voice Services”

Gyanee Dewnarain, Research Director, Gartner

14 November 2013



Voice is suddenly changing fast



2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

?

Voice gets “app stored”

Demand-driven future

No two users have the exact same

needs

Hyper-personalised

There is no “one-size-fits-all”

voice solution

Supply-centric outlook = death



From ubiquity to Hi-Lo mix of communications

Jacket: $1000

Leggings: $10

Sunglasses: $100

Uniform: $150



Your fate if you don‟t adapt to changing context!

Marks & Spencer has revealed a 9.1% fall in half-year profits as

underlying sales of clothing and homewares

slipped back for the ninth consecutive quarter.



Tuesday 5 November 2013

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newsletter

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For IP

Communications, Ubiquity is

Dead


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Neuroscience explains reluctance to change

Predictable irrationality

Endowment effect

Optimism bias

Confirmation bias

Defence of belief systems



Convergence

& standards

Fragmentation & differentiation

Telephony & SMS will continue to exist,

but there will be

NO more standard, interoperable services

Comforting myths about demand


Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

Good quality is critical

Interoperability is essential

Minutes / messages = value

“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls

November 2013

Uncomfortable demand reality


Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013October 2013

Good quality is only sometimes critical

Interoperability is essential

for basic lowest-common

denominator services only

Intention & outcomes = value

Phone calls are

becoming less useful

Essential supply consequences



Range of levels of network quality and cost…

…from unmanaged to assured

Shift focus to embedded voice

Need new demand-driven

services model

Need personalisation and

contextualisation capabilities

November 2013

In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”

Near voice

November 2013



Old distant voice [Tele-phone]

>100 years ago

Pretty good for the 19th century...

November 2013



“Hegemony

of the

caller”

... but really not good enough for 21st century

Fragmentation of communications models

Standalone calls

Non-call comms

Embedded app/web

calls



CircuitIP

Good to have “lowest

common denominator”

Ubiquity no/negative

benefit

Maybe ubiquitous

in a niche

November 2013

Intent & context....



Why do people make

phone calls (or send

messages, share media

or use video), anyway?

November 2013

The chart you‟ll never see…

Calls by purpose

Gossip

Meeting up

Flirting

Spam

Showing off

Work

Wasting time



Different contexts



Living room

Board room

Airline loungeBar

Public transport

Out walking

At work

November 2013

1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS”

SERVICES CANNOT

FULFILL ALL THESE

PURPOSES WELL



Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones



SMS

November 2013

So how important is quality?

Must have

Nice to have

Meh. I want free

I'll call back

% calls



Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model

We don‟t pay for movies or flights by the minute

Short calls often more valuable than long

Minutes = easy to count (and must be counted)

Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model

Regulator mindset needs to shift too



Service

Product

Feature

Function



Ubiquity is dead. And that‟s a good thing.



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Voice Value-added Services


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Voice VAS



Standard feature set

(caller ID, voicemail,

forwarding, etc.)

Audio conferencing

Premium voice

Ringback tones

Centrex

Translation

Voice, video and

messaging

Call recording

Visual call control

Source tracking

Next-generation

conference calling

Standard fixed +

mobile feature set

Next-gen

“mobile, social,

cloud” feature set

“Hypervoice”

November 2013

Singtel – concierge-type services

“Next-generation Yellow Pages + search, for voice”

More than 150,000 local businesses and 7,000 hawker locations

Singapore English and local terms

Mobile-app based



Yes, you can compete with Google (and win!)

“We have spent a lot of effort to ensure the

app is able to understand the way

Singaporeans speak English,

and this sets deF!ND apart from other

voice recognition apps that have been

developed abroad”



If you can‟t beat them…



Nigeria

+Philippines

+

November 2013

DoCoMo - automatic voice translation service

World‟s first commercial mobile service for translation of

conversations between people speaking Japanese and other

languages.

Hanashite Hon‟yaku provides translations between Japanese and the

receiver‟s language.

Translations are provided both as screen text and voice readouts.

Dial the other party using an Android app for DOCOMO

smartphones and tablets running Android 2.2 or higher.



Tropo Ameche – telco-centric “voice apps store”

Integrated with telco core network

Wide range of capabilities (e.g. voice whisper)



CallTrunk – consumer call recording



Capture Cloud

integration

Search

and analyse

November 2013

VoiceBase – enterprise call search



Cloud/SaaS integration is important



Op3nVoice - Call recording seems to be „hot‟



C2B Inbound call source/lead tracking

Optimise the ROI of your marketing campaigns

Compare response rates of different marketing channels with

unique trackable phone numbers



SME: Telefonica Azul - Rich visual call control



1:1 call

Group or

conference call

November 2013

Adds mute, earmuff, kick participants

or put them on hold.

B2B: Next-generation conference calling

“Links what

you say to

what you

do.”

How?

Not just traditional “network services” and call control

New architectures expose or defer call control

Many value-added integration points (Hosting, security, etc.)

Multiple commercial options: Build, partner, re-sell

E.g. Vodafone OneNet vs Cisco UC + SingTel UCaaS

Enterprise segment tends to lead

Long history of making money from reselling 3rd party applications and

services and supplying appropriate connectivity

Used to re-selling PBX, video conferencing + service wrapper

“OTT” – has always been that way in the enterprise world!



WHERE NEXT?



What is hypervoice?

Voice as 2-way audio Voice as

information

November 2013



Problems we are solving

Voice has value beyond

a single instant

Voice has value at a

single instant

November 2013



Activity stream

Recordable

Shareable

Workflow integration

Searchable

Rich UI

Defining characteristics

Web 1.0 Web 2.0 Web 3.0

?

HypermessagingHypertext Hypervoice

November 2013



Summary

Hypervoice conversations are the

„social‟ version of telephony

and unified communications.

November 2013



To learn more…



White paper, newsletter, blog at www.hypervoice.org

MORE

http://www.hypervoice.org/

WebRTC Market

Status & Opportunities


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The vision: voice & video everywhere



Talked about for years, but hard to achieve



• Expensive

• Inflexible

• Poor developer support

• Limited use-cases

• Reliance on “call” model

• Poor audio/video

• Hard to integrate

= Patchy adoption & little

developer enthusiasm / buzz

But now….



WebRTC – what is it?

An easy way to put voice & video into web browsers…

… and also apps, and devices and more

High quality, network-intelligent (eg firewalls)

Also with “context”, realtime data & encryption

Developer-friendly & user-friendly

Excitement, buzz & “cool factor”

“Democratises” voice & video. Cheap, easy innovation

More than just a tech standard. A “movement”.

Huge disruption potential for telcos & others



When?



NOW

Already being commercialised & monetised…

…before it is standardised

Who‟s involved?



& 200+ startups & 1000’s of developers

Original 3-way support for WebRTC expanding

WebRTC

Enterprise

TelcoConsumer Web

November 2013

DevicesNetwork

tools

TV &

gaming

WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”



WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016

Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013

November 2013

View Oct‟13: lead WebRTC use-cases

Early enterprise adoption

Initial consumer web apps/devices

Live &

commercial

Verticals & corporatePilots / pre-

commercial

Trials &

demos

Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…

November 2013



For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst

Now

With WebRTC

Bigger opportunities

Worse threats

Faster speedCopyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and


Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?

Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7

Turbocharge Telco-OTT

apps

Sell packaged WebRTC

services to subscriber

Enhance developer platform

TV, entertainment &

digital services

Strengthen enterprise &

verticals

October 2013

Also: invest / incubate

Improve own CRM & systems

Maybe M2M, devices etc

IMS should be <30% total

WebRTC effort &

investment

Policy impact of WebRTC

?(but urgent)



Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013October 2013

For WebRTC report & quarterly update

details see:

http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Or email information@disruptive-

analysis.com

What next?


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[email protected]

Which way do you want to go?


Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013Oct 2013

Operators

Milk the cash cow…

Re-think credit control

More bundling with new VAS

Refine segmentation

Customers, not devices

New payment models

…and recognise and engage with

inevitable change

Can‟t limit user behaviour

“Don‟t fight demand”

Lots of opportunity so accept change

November 2013

Operators should do these five things now!

1. Build off-net (TelcoOTT) service capability

2. Measure and manage on-net OTT voice quality

3. Create a value-added voice strategy

Integrated with core voice offer only where appropriate

4. Re-examine responsibility for voice

5. Engage regulator in pro-active dialogue

November 2013



Regulatory and policy considerations

This is good for consumers!

Service innovation and competition

Treat like the rest of the web – progress & diversity is good

Potential huge area for digital economy + R&D

Will increase pressure on telcos in some cases

Protecting „national champion‟ incumbent players may backfire

Regulation is going to get more complex

„Voice‟ is becoming 1000‟s of apps, not just “calls”?

Revisit rules & laws to reflect new world of voice/video

Difficult issues around privacy, security, encryption



Also available…



Workshops, Briefings, Consultancy

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ITU Telecom 2013 Workshop: New Telecom Opportunities in Voice and Messaging