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The climate analogues approach

Concepts and application

Bonn Contact Point Meeting June 2011

CCAFS: Theme 1 overview

Andy JarvisTheme 1 Leader

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The Challenge

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Problems/Opportunities

Problem: 60-70% more food to support a growing population….

…..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate

Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it?

Opportunity: Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level

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0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1

Exacerbating the yield gap

From Licker et al, 2010

Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

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Exacerbating the yield gap

Climate change will likely increase difficulties for resource-poor farmers, thereby increasing the yield gap

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Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

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Input Providers Consumer

Other Crops

Structural Adaptation

Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.

Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.

Adaptive Adjustments

Action:a) Shadingb) Changing varietalsc) Changing inputs

Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.

Wholesale/Retail

C4

Coffee FederationCoffee Producers

a) Shading

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Coffee Producers

Transformational Adaptation

Action: Migrate to keep farmingChange farming systems (agricultural)Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)

Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.

10 • 3/21/11Theme 1 Strategy

Problem definition: DIAGNOSTICBIO/

ENV DATA

SOCIO/ECO DATA

MODELS

CAP. BUILDING

EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND

TECHNOLOGIES

(2012)

(2013- 2014)

1.2 RESEARCH Strategies (breeding) -> CRPs1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national

1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES

SCIENCE BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

OBJECTIVES

Syst

em

or

crop level

adapta

tion

stra

tegie

s

(2013- 2015)

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Approaches and impact pathways

Data and evidence based strategies and solutions

Climate scienceAgricultural modelling

Observation using climate variabilityAnalysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation

Village to national levelSetting priorities

Develo

pm

en

t p

art

ners

, Pri

vate

Sect

or,

Polic

y

Outr

each

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TPE analysis

Future systems

Knowledge &

intuition

Ideotype concept

Gene/alleledisc

overy

Intelligent

phenotyping

designs

Marker develop

mt.

Modeling

Marker validatio

n,Integrati

on,G x E x M

Molecular

breeding

Intelligent choice

of populatio

ns

Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment

CHANGE

Con-vention

al breedin

g

Application

Methodology

Search

Function, regulatio

n,phénotyp

e

Strategic choices

DiversityPanels

BiparentalPops

CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2:

Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon

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Current Climatic Suitability

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Current Climatic Constraints

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Future Suitability

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Benefits of breeding options

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>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

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• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)

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Importance & Potential • Collating input climate and

agricultural data• Design of experiments• Calibration, validation and crop

model runs• Exploration of adaptation options

– Genetic improvement– On-farm management practices

• Test them via modelling• Build “adaptation packages”• Assess technology transfer options

(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)

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>> Example for beans

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Next steps with Agtrials

• Continue to develop the infrastructure for sharing trial and evaluation data

• Analyse data in agtrials: GxE analyses at crop and variety level

• Continue to populate with data – the more data, the better our understanding of varietal level adaptation, GxE etc.

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Farmers’ Network for Participatory Evaluation

Goal: To improve farmers’ access to knowledge and genetic materials; and build their experimentation skills– More than 70 farmers’

field trials at 4 project sites in IGP

– Farmers selected varieties based on their perspective

23

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This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of SROI and to outline howSOCIAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT

COMMUNITY BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTING

This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of Social Return on Investment (SROI) and to outline the pilot framework as applied in Kisumu Kenya in July of 2011.

JUSTIFICATION | WHAT IS SROI? | WORKSHOP | SROI INTERVIEWS | ANALYSIS

CONTENT BAR:

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SROI - Kochiel, Kenya – July 2011 (All photos by Anna Wikman)

RESOURCESThe SROI Network: http://www.thesroinetwork.org/The SROI Network: http://www.thesroinetwork.org/

Adobe Acrobat Document

>> The publication, “A guide to Social Return on Investment", hasserved as the guiding resource in developing this pilot series. The document has been embedded in this PPT for reference.

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

Why is it useful?

The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.

What CCAFS output?

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up

Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture

What CCAFS output?

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Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future

The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

What CCAFS output?

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Why is it useful?

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The Analogue Concept

• We heavily rely on models to tell us what the future holds– GCM/RCM projections– Crop models, household models,

farming system models

• Few take into account human adaptive capacity, and social and cultural factors that contribute to decision making

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Novel climates• Williams et al. (2007) state that

there is likely to be 30% novel climates under climate change

• That means that there are 70% of already existing climates projected to 2100 for sites!

• Analogues: Use spatial variability in climate as a means of having a real experiment of what the future holds for a site

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Benefits of an analogue approach

• Large uncertainties remain regarding future projections of climate, and their resultant impacts on farming systems, especially at the local level.

• The adaptive capacity of communities is a factor rarely taken into account in the global/regional models on which policy makers often rely

• The use of climate analogues for locating future climates today can ground models in field-based realities, significantly enhancing our knowledge of adaptation capacity and supporting the identification of appropriate interventions.

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Analogue options

Where can I find sites that…

are at present were in the past

(x year) are projected to

be in the future (y year)

… analogous to my selected site…

at present? in the past (z

year)? in the future

(projected n year)?

Spatial analogues

Temporal analogues

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• Rainy season from June to September

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Why we think this an important approach

• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchange of knowledge

• Permitting validation of computational models and trialing of new technologies/techniques

• Learning from history

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AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE ANALOGUE APPROACH TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

36 • 3/21/11 Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal

- CCAFS site- 600 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 14.8°C - Max. Temp. 39.1°C

- Main crops:- Millet- Maize- Peanuts- Sorghum- Sesame

-Climate Change threats:

Erratic Rainfall

-Socio-economic constraints:

-High poverty level - Low access to capital - No attractive market

Kaffrine, Senegal (x:-15.54, y:14.106)

37 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal

Average Climate Change Trends:- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C

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The Model: EcoCrop

It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation…

…and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

• So, how does it work?

39 • 3/21/11 Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal

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- Mean of the dissimilarity index of 24 GCMs between the starting site Kaffrine, Senegal with the entire world

- Climate parameters:-Monthly temperature - Monthly rainfall

- Scenario A1B, 2030

High climate similarity

Where can we find a region with similar climatic conditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?

Climate similarity

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CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso

Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger

The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine

Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine

Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites

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- CCAFS site -500 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 15.7°C- Max. Temp. 41.3°C

- Main crops:- Millet- Beans- Leafy vegetables- Maize- Sorghum

- Climate Change threats:

Drought

- Socio-economic constraints:

- Low level of infrastructure - Limited access to market

Fakara, Niger (x:2.687, y:13.517)

Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger

43 • 3/21/11 Change in climate, 2020 – Fakara, Niger

Average Climate Change Trends:- Decrease in precipitation from 615 mm to 539.53 mm- Increase in main daily temperature range of 1.3°C

44 • 3/21/11 Comparison of current conditions

Current conditions Kaffrine, Senegal

Fakara, Niger = Future condition of

Kaffrine

ZoneTransition zone from the

Sahelien towards the Sudan Savannah zone

Within the Sahel

Altitude 15 m 225 mAnnual rainfall average

600 mm 500 mm

Minimum Temperatur

e 14.8 °C 15.7 °C

Maximum Temperatur

e39.1 °C 41.3 °C

Main crops

Millet Maize

PeanutsSorghum

Sesame

Millet Beans

Leafy vegetables Maize

SorghumLength of Growing period

130 days 95 days

Soil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soilSoil FAO

ClassFerric Luvisols Luvic Arenosols

Socio-economic

constraints

High poverty level Low access to capital

No attractive market

Low level of infrastructure Limited access

to market

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Kaffrine, Senegal

Fakara, Niger

Millet Maize

PeanutsSorghum

Sesame

Millet Beans Leafy

vegetables Maize

Sorghum

Comparison of main crops

46 • 3/21/11 Agtrial database - Application

Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.Sorghum yield data

Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N

(kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield

(t/ha)CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08

Yield data available in the Agtrials database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/

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Millet Yield dataVariety name Grain Yield (t/ha)Nyamkombo 0.87Okashana-2 1.09

PMV-2 0.78PMV-3 0.86

SDMV89003 0.88SDMV89007 0.82SDMV90031 1.16SDMV91018 0.91SDMV92033 0.75SDMV92038 0.82SDMV95032 1.03SDMV95033 0.93SDMV95045 1.13SDMV96075 0.89SDMV97007 0.87SDMV97011 0.87TSPM91018 0.69SDMV89005 0.90SDMV92035 0.51SDMV92037 1.01SDMV95009 0.77SDMV95014 0.68SDMV95025 0.73ZPMV92005 0.50ZPMV94001 0.60

Agtrial database - Application

Senegal

Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal

Yield data available in the Agtrial database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.

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Conclusions and a word of warning

• We believe the analogue approach as an interesting tool for analysing impacts and identifying and supporting adaptation strategies

• You are the first to see this, and there are still some glitches, plus we continue to improve methods based on calibration and validation

• We’re interested in feedback, suggestions for improvement, and working with you in the use of the tool to continue its improvement

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