f low,

sense,

ONTROL,

emerge,

SEAMLESS AND INTELLIGENT DEVICE ENSEMBLES

WEAVING A WEB OF APPLICATIONS

PEOPLE AS PERIPHERALS

COMBINATORIAL FORECASTSINTUITIVE INTERFACES

TOTAL RECORDING AND TRANSCRIPTION

NEW OS FOR PERSONAL DATA

CYBERSECURITY: INOCULATING THE INTERNET

E3: ENERGY EFFICIENCY ENGINEERED

THE DIGITAL CONNECTOME

ALGORITHMIC ARMS RACE

CRITICAL TENSIONS

Glass Houses vs. Black Boxes

The Human Internet vs. The Machine Internet

The Cosmopolitan Internet vs. Internet Fragmentation

Augmentation vs. Dependency

f low

SENSE

EMERGE

CoNTRol

massive data storage and search | summ

arization and storification

mobile and embedded sensor nets | pow

er and battery design

dyna

mic

net

wor

k ar

chite

ctur

es |

obj

ect &

use

reco

gniti

on

cont

ext-

awar

e ap

ps &

ser

vice

s

objec

t & use

recogniti

on | open re

sources

conte

xt-aware apps & services

automated process optimization | wearable computers

machine learning | context-aware apps and services

high

-spe

ed d

ata

min

ing

and

mat

chin

g

pred

ictiv

e an

alyt

ics

| m

achi

ne le

arni

ng

multi-sensory interfaces | augmented reality | smart surfaces

cognitive computin

g

power and battery design

cloud supercomputing |

dynamic network

arch

itect

ures

cloud supercomputing | dynamic network architectures

high-speed data mining and matching | data surveillance

context-aware apps and services | open resources

multi-factor biometric authentication

multi-factor biom

etric authentication | data surveillance

Seam

leSS

and

Inte

llIg

ent

devI

ce e

nSem

bleS

Wea

vIng a

Web of applIcatIonS

people aS perIpheralSIntuItIve InterfaceS

total recordIng and tranScrIptIon

e3: energy effIcIency engIneered

the dIgItal connecto

me

algo

rIth

mIc

arm

S ra

ce

neW oS for perSonal data

cyberSecurIty: InoculatIng the Internet

ocus

pec.

com

tech

nologyr

eview

.com

lifelapse.com

wired.com

sec.gov

sec.gov

ibm.com

scientificamerican.com

greenlight.calit2.net

futurity.org

pitt

patt

.com

pittpat

t.com

databanker.com

bis.gov.uk

apple.com

technologyreview.com

webintents.org

ifttt.com

projects.csail.mit.edu

taskrabb

it.com

To

Tal

Re

co

Rd

ing

of

ch

ild

ho

od

Cognitive scientist D

eb

Roy installed 11 cam

eras and 14 microp

hones in his home b

efore

the birth of his son. He recorded a total of m

ore than 90,000 hours

of video over 3 years, more than 200 terab

ytes of data, com

pletely

documenting the process of his son’s language learning.

By 2022, people and organizations will have the ability to keep digital scrap

bo

oks

of all of their interactions and to be able to mine records of all past m

eetings fo

r

patterns and insights.

Voice, haptics, and gesture will dominate the next era of interface, but will soon be

joined by responsive and anticipatory systems that will leverage implicit intention

markers such as eye tracking, emotional signals, and other non-verbal cues.

Software initially developed for crowdsourcing and

social enterprise applications is now able to perform

task assignment and coordination roles traditionally

occupied by human managers and supervisors.

Met

a-se

rvic

es a

nd p

rogra

mm

atic constru

cts that

tran

sfor

m d

ispa

rate

applic

ation fu

nctionaliti

es into

real

-tim

e so

lutio

ns w

ill be

the connectiv

e tissue

of th

e in

tern

et, m

uch

as h

yperli

nks were to

the

early

web

.

an

inte

gra

ted

eco

syst

em o

f net

wor

ked

devi

ces

will

allo

w f

or

seam

less

co

nten

t, c

onte

xtua

l aw

aren

ess,

and

inte

llig

ent

assi

stan

ce b

ased

on

user

nee

ds.

wallets, rep

osito

ries, or clouds—

all served by intelligent digital agents.

searchable p

ersonal d

ata containers—vaults, banks, lockers, event netw

orks,

By 2022, m

uch of o

ur online interaction will be experienced through secure,

balance openness and security.

code-sniffi ng technologies, bio-authentication methods, and new iSP rules to

Pernicious code is increasingly infecting the internet, encouraging use of

technology (icT) energy effi ciency.

needs and to improve information and communication

developed and scaled to meet growing device power

cells, and biofuel for mobile devices are being rapidly

charging surfaces, solar and kinetic chargers, fuel

Universal power supplies, wireless charging, connectio

n pathways

ove

r oth

ers.

networks w

ith fo

rmatio

ns des

igne

d to

priv

ilege

cer

tain

netw

ork phenomena, such

as

wiri

ng to

geth

er

engineered to ta

ke adva

ntag

e of

neu

ral-l

ike

front

ier

networks arc

hitectu

re w

ill be

del

iber

atel

y

agai

nst o

ther

pre

dict

ive

algo

rith

ms.

as th

ey c

hang

e th

eir

own

code

s in

ord

er t

o c

om

pet

e

but w

ill a

lso

crea

te e

mer

gent

and

vo

lati

le p

rop

erti

es

mea

ning

ful p

atte

rns

of h

uman

and

mac

hine

beh

avio

r,

alg

orith

ms

will

har

ness

mas

sive

dat

a to

gen

erat

e

lifelaPSe Lifelapse is an iPhone application. Once the user puts

the phone in a special pocket, it automatically takes pictures every 30

seconds. These are then compiled as tim

e-lapse videos to be shared.

eMoTion-deTecTing SMaRTPhone Samsung is prototyping

new software that can infer a smartphone users’ mental state from

behaviors such as typing speed, use of backspaces and deletes,

and shaking.

ocUSPec This powerful, low-cost gesture recognition technology

works across platforms allowing it to be integrated into everything

from a TV to a laptop.TaSkRaBBiT Taskrabbit allows users to

offer payment to a crowd of screened helpers

for help with chores.

SoylenT Soylent, developed by Michael

Bernstein at MIT, embeds crowdsourced editing

and proofreading functions directly into MS Word,

allowing users to receive input from hundreds,

in real-time, while drafting a document.

WeB

inTe

nTS

Thi

s fra

mew

ork

lets

use

rs

enab

le th

eir I

nter

net a

pplic

atio

ns to

com

mun

icat

e w

ith a

nd is

sue

com

man

ds

to e

ach

othe

r, lik

e Tw

itter

or D

elic

ious

.

aiR

Pl

ay

MiR

Ro

Rin

g A

irpla

y M

irror

ing

le

ts y

ou w

irele

ssly

str

eam

from

one

or

mor

e

iPad

s or

iPho

nes

to y

our

HD

TV t

hrou

gh a

n

Ap

ple

TV.

Mid

aTa

Mid

aTa

is a voluntary program that the U

K G

overnment

Mid

aTa

Mid

ata is a voluntary program

that the UK

government is

undertaking w

ith industry, giving consum

ers increasing access

to their personal d

ata in a portab

le, electronic format.

daTa

Ba

nk

eR

The Facebook Privacy Informer App calculates risk

metrics based on how

an individual has conf gured Facebook privacy

settings and generates a f nal number that rates personal privacy risk.

PiTTPaTT PittPatt provides a facial recognition software develop-

ment kit (SDK) that allows anyone to integrate this capability more

easily into their products and services.

ScaVenging PoWeR fRoM The aiR

Georgia Tech researchers are developing

printable, f exible devices that can scavenge

ambient electromagnetic energy and convert

and store the power.

gReenlighT Calit2 researchers developed

a system of networking architectures,

sensors nets, quantitative software analysis,

server arrays, and visualization tools for greater

eff ciency and reduced carbon footprints.

UncoVeRing P

RoPeRTieS o

f

cogniTiVe neTW

oRkS Rec

ent r

esea

rch

suggests th

at the brain’s

neurons alig

n to fo

rm

a 3D grid.

cog

niTiV

e co

MPU

Tin

g I

BM is

curre

ntly

mod

eling

the

brai

n sy

stem

s of

com

plex

ani

mal

s as

a p

recu

rsor

to w

hat i

t is

callin

g “c

ogni

tive

com

putin

g,” o

r com

puta

tion

prop

ertie

s lev

erag

ed b

y th

e br

ain.

Po

lyW

oR

ld T

his

is o

ne o

f sev

eral

pla

tform

s

desi

gned

to c

reat

e an

env

ironm

ent f

or A

I to

evol

ve n

ew a

ppro

ache

s an

d ca

pabi

litie

s.

PR

ed

icT

iVe

So

fT

Wa

Re

diS

RU

PT

S

fin

an

cia

l M

aR

ke

TS

R

egul

ator

s ha

ve

foun

d au

tom

ated

tra

din

g so

ftw

are

to b

e

a ke

y fa

ctor

in s

ome

extr

eme

mar

ket

f uct

uatio

ns, i

nclu

din

g a

“f a

sh c

rash

” in

201

0.

digiTal anTS: STigMeRgic cyBeRSecURiTy Programs

wander through computers searching out and swarming viruses.They

leave “digital pheromones” when they sense a problematic behavior.

if T

hiS, T

hen ThaT T

his se

rvice allows u

sers

to cr

eate

”triggers

” across

platform

s, “I w

rite a

twee

t, post

it on Fac

ebook and th

en share th

e

“trigg

ers”

so fr

iends c

an use th

em too.”

Th

e S

aM

SU

ng

SM

aR

T W

ind

oW

The

Sam

sung

Sm

art W

indo

w is

a tr

ansp

aren

t LC

D

whi

ch tu

rns

a re

gula

r win

dow

in y

our h

ouse

into

a o

n-de

man

d to

uch-

scre

en in

terfa

ce.

lEGENdThis map highlights the technological changes occuring with the Internet and how they will transform the human Internet experience in the coming decade. It contains seven foundational technology forecasts and ten combinatorial forecasts. The foundational technology forecasts are divided into two clusters: platform and workload, located along either side of the fgure. The combinatorial forecasts are arrayed around the human fgure and divided into four functional potentials: f low, SENSE,

oNTRol and EMERGE.

f o u n d at I o n a l t e c h n o l o g y f o r e c a S t S

Fundamental changes are occurring in the way the Internet functions. Forecasts for the core computational and network architectures for mobile and embedded systems are shown in the platform clusters. New and powerful functionalities for networked computing systems are forecasted in the workload clusters.

c o m b I n at o r I a l f o r e c a S t S

In a messy and complex world where accelerating change creates technological disruptions, dynamic social reconfgurations, and rapid organizational innovation, linear extrapolation of technological trends is insuffcient. Instead, technological change will be driven by the combination and recombination of foundational elements. Combinatorial forecasting, then, involves the systematic intermingling of distinct technology trends with the goal of perceiving alternative outcomes that could occur when these elements are mixed together.

t e c h n o l o g y e n a b l e r S

Each combinatorial forecast contains a list of several core technologies that are changing conditions of possibility. These technological trends or advancements enable the shifts described in the forecasts.

S I g n a l S

Signals support each forecast with concrete examples from the world today. These include new technologies, research, businesses, or other endeavors that demonstrate the direction of the forecast as a whole.

f o u r p o t e n t I a l S

f lowFunctional assets are being fragmented and recombined into new arrays to provide more relevant, effcient, and personalized service.

SENSEComputational interfaces are becoming more ubiquitous, human-centric, and invisible.

oNTRolBoundaries are diffcult to maintain with the Internet, but new forms of control will aid in the struggle for secure transactions and private interactions.

EMERGEMachine learning will advance quickly, unleashed from human control and allowed to develop in unexpected ways.

To

Tal

Re

co

Rd

ing

of

ch

ild

ho

od

Cognitive scientist D

eb

Roy installed 11 cam

eras and 14 microp

hones in his home b

efore

the birth of his son. He recorded a total of m

ore than 90,000 hours of

video over 3 years, more than 200 terab

ytes of data, com

pletely

documenting the process of language learning.

neW oS for perSonal data

repo

sitories, o

r cloud

s, all served by intelligent digital agents.

chable p

ersonal d

ata containers—vaults, banks, lockers, event netw

orks, wallets,

By 2022, m

uch of o

ur online interaction will be experienced through secure, sear

platformnetworks

Re-engineering The network: Quality Performance

Wireless networks: Dynamic Confgurations

computational cloudcloud-Served Supercomputing: New Operating Systems

open Resources: Data, Apps, and Services

exotic hardware: Biological and Quantum

embedded and local systemsSmart Surfaces: Scalable, Ubiquitous, and Invisible

Smart Spaces: Sensing, Recording, and Learning

coordinated devices: Heterogeneous, Connected, and Adaptable

mobile hardwareMobile Sensor Platforms: Pervasive and Powerful

Mobile computing: Handhelds and Wearable Computing

Personal Robots: Drones, Swarms, and Anthropomorphic Assistants

Workload

rendering and simulationUtilizing Big data: Simulations, Models,

and Visualizations

Video Web: Synthetic, Interactive, and Hyperlinked

dimensionality: 3D, Immersive, and Holographic

mining and reasoningautonomous Processes: Machine-to-Machine

contextual assistance: Analytics, Optimization, and Validation

Understanding humans: Machine Learning

sensing and recognitionhigh-Resolution Sensing: Motion,

Volume, and Activity

Real-World interaction: Recognition, Discovery, and Filtering

networksA cascade of fundamental changes in net-

work software and hardware will greatly improve

connections.

computational cloud-

tational cloud of super intelligent services, including -

cations with machine intelligence and learning.

embedded and local systems

displays of every size, sensors, actuators, and

mobile hardwareA vast and complex array of connected

pervasive in human experience and environments in unprecedented ways.

FOUNDATIONAL TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS

rendering and simulation

applications outsourced to the cloud, devices’

rich user interfaces and graphics. Advances in rendering, simulations, and modeling will make displays a major driver of CPU chip performance, with photorealistic simulations dominating network device usage.

mining and reasoningMachine intelligence and learning will

applications, automating a vast amount of what was once human work.

sensing and recognitionDevices equipped with sensor software

anticipating user needs.

PLATFORM CLUSTER WORKLOAD CLUSTER

HOW TO USE THIS MAP:Thinking Systematically about the Future

F LOW, SENSE, ONTROL EMERGE.

Working with this MapEXPLORE F LOW, SENSE,

ONTROL EMERGE

FOCUS

DRILL DOWN

CONSIDER

RE-COMBINEcreate

Institute for the Future

Technology Horizons Program

Acknowledgements