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Scott Wallsten from the Technology Policy Institute talks about international broaband comparisons a presentation to the Minnesota Broadband Task Force, December 2008
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UnderstandingInternational Broadband Comparisons
December 19, 2008
Scott [email protected]
www.techpolicyinstitute.orgwww.wallsten.net
Per capita rankings of wired connections not meaningful:
•Wired connections are one to a household.
Correct normalization is connections per household, not per capita.
OECD rankings, in particular, problematic also because:
•Cannot measure business lines consistently across countries or over time.
Sources: European Community (2008); US Census (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Foundation (2008); National Internet Development Agency of Korea (2008); Impress/R&D Internet Media Research Institute (2007). See footnote 8 in Wallsten (2008).
April 2008
OECD (and FCC) can’t count business connections
Total
Total
Residential
Total
Residential
Business (implied)
U.S. Census: 81 million people have Internet at workNielsen: 95% of workers with Internet access have broadband
77 million U.S. workers have broadband at work
OECD/FCC miss about 72 million connections
66 million connections (OECD)72 million workplace
138 million U.S. wired broadband connections
Share of counted connections that are residential
Why is the U.S. OECD rank falling?
Household size.
Countries with larger households will have fewer connections per capita.
Hermitopiapopulation: 20
Grüphaus Republicpopulation: 20
Hermitopiapopulation: 20
Grüphaus Republicpopulation: 202001
Internet
Hermitopiapopulation: 20
Grüphaus Republicpopulation: 202008
Internet
Korea
Sweden
Canada
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Austria
United States
Iceland
Japan
Korea
Sweden
Canada
Denmark
Belgium
Netherlands
Austria
United States
Iceland
Japan
When every household in every country has broadband,U.S. per capita rank will be very low
Sources: European Community (2008); US Census (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Foundation (2008); National Internet Development Agency of Korea (2008); Impress/R&D Internet Media Research Institute (2007). See footnote 8 in Wallsten (2008).
April 2008
What about wireless broadband?
(for one thing, per capita counts are OK!)
Source: FCC (2008)
cable
dsl
mobile
fibersatellite & fixed
Source: Nielsen Company (2008).
Note: Lots of countries (like Japan) not included this survey!
Key empirical unknowns about wireless/mobile broadband
•Elasticity of substitution between wired and wireless.
•Actual speeds.
•Latency.
Unique IP Addresses Per Capita
Advantages of this metric: Includes all devices connected to the Internet—wired, wireless, household, business, etc.
Disadvantage: Does the nature of IP addressing inflate U.S. numbers?
Source: Akamai, State of the Internet, Q3 2008.
Source: Akamai, State of the Internet, Q3 2008.
Unique “High Broadband” IP Addresses Per Capita
“High broadband” – connections with connections with at least 5 Mbps.
Speedsconsider actual, not advertised
Source: Speedtest.net.
Note: Korea measurement probably too low because Speedtest.net does not have a server there.
Source: Akamai, The State of the Internet, Q3 2008.
Speeds Observed by Akamai, Q3 2008
U.S. Data
Source: FCC (2008).
Source: U.S. Census, Current Population Survey 2007.
Ten fastest states as measured by Akamai
Source: Akamai, State of the Internet, Q3 2008.
Ten fastest states (download) as measured by Speedtest.net
Ten fastest states (download) as measured by Speedtest.netand their speeds measured by CWA (speedmatters)
Biggest speed improvements, Q2-Q3 2008
Source: Akamai, State of the Internet, Q3 2008.
Source: U.S. Census (2007).
Conclusions: A National Broadband Policy
1. IMPROVE DATA• Require the U.S. Census to continue gathering data as part of CPS.• Gather better data on business broadband (BEA?).• Mapping? If you really want to.
2. GOT BROADBAND PLANS?• Require cost-benefit analysis of any proposal.• Study existing programs.
0. NO CRISIS!• We can take the time to make good policy.
The Boring Recommendations
Conclusions: A National Broadband Policy
Inconvenient recommendations
2. IF YOU WANT TO INCREASE BROADBAND ADOPTION• Focus more on low-income people than on rural areas.
1. REMOVE ENTRY BARRIERS• Make more spectrum available.• Streamline rights-of-way.
3. IF YOU WANT TO INCREASE BROADBAND INVESTMENT• DO NOT subsidize all new investment.• Consider innovative approaches, such as West Virginia’s
“reverse auction.”
Conclusion
Relax. We’re OK.
