In Pursuit of Reality

1Luminary Labs | June 2017

in pursuit ofREALITY

Kate Machtiger & Michelle ShevinLuminary Labs | June 2017

2Luminary Labs | June 2017Luminary Labs | June 2017

Since the earliest cave paintings, humans have tried to represent their reality.


With each new tool, the accuracy of this representation has improved:

seeing believingexperiencing


So, where are we today?


First, the basics


What are AR and VR?


Reality The real world.


Augmented realityA blending of virtual and real life, allowing users to interact with virtual elements in the real world (also known as mixed reality).


Virtual realityA fabricated, immersive virtual world, isolated from the real world.


The virtual and augmented reality market is growing.


2016 revenue: $6 billion2020 revenue: $143 billion*

*per IDC estimates

Hardware, software, third-party applications, consulting services, and integration services.


Many will tell you our virtual future is here...


QUARTZ

VOGUE UK

BUSINESS INSIDER

THE GUARDIAN

FRESH BUSINESS THINKING


Others are not so sure...


PATENTLY APPLE

NEW YORK TIMES

THE VERGE

WALL STREET JOURNAL

RE/CODE


So where are we really?


Early adoption

Wide adoptionWe are here

Holdout adoption


When will we hit the tipping point?


When the technology facilitates not just experience, but true belief:

seeing believingexperiencing


How soon will it happen?History offers clues.


Seeing


Early environments stretched the imagination through the eyes.

23Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Wikimedia

1780s

Panorama paintings drew patrons into a round room where they were surrounded by a floor-to-ceiling, 360-degree scene.

Art imitates life


The eyes play tricks

Dioramas allowed the audience to stay in one place while the scenery moved in front of them. Lighting effects simulated movement and the passage of time.

1820s


SeeingExperiencing


New contraptions affronted the senses, but barriers between virtual and real remained.


What’s your vector, Victor?

As new modes of transportation proliferated, simulators emerged as training tools. Valves and pumps offered airplane pilots realistic dashboard readings, while model cars measured drivers’ reaction times.

1920s


Watch n’ sniffThe Sensorama offered a new paradigm of “realism” in entertainment, bringing sight, sound, smell, and temperature together to create an entirely artificial immersive experience. However, the project failed to capture the interest of the movie industry, and ceased before it could reach the masses.

1950s


Hooked on a feelingThe first head-mounted display, Ivan Sutherland’s “sword of Damocles” hung precariously from the ceiling. The contraption allowed the visuals—a floating cube within a wireframe room—to shift with head movements.

1960s


Body languageComputer scientist Jaron Lanier founded VPL, the first business to sell VR products. Their motion-tracking gloves and data suits offered a way to interact with virtual elements through movements and gestures.

1980s

31Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Dr. Waldern/Virtuality Group - Dr. Jonathan D. Waldern

Let the games beginThe first major commercial VR devices, Virtuality headsets, joysticks, and gloves used magnetic tracking to simulate movements within a gaming environment, offering a new level of 3D immersion for techies and arcade goers.

1990s

32Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user jdlasica

I am therefore iPod

The MyVu capitalized on video’s newfound portability, allowing users to watch iPod videos projected in front of their eyes. It roughly simulated the experience of watching a large-screen TV.

2006


Glass houses

Projecting an interactive display in front of the eyes, Google Glass supported tasks like taking photos or checking messages. But the product failed to gain traction with users and privacy fears scared away the public.

2013


SeeingExperiencingBelieving


A range of technologies begin to convince people of the validity of alternate realities.


Was it all a dream?

Second Life’s avatar-driven experience went beyond pure entertainment, letting people craft alternate lives in a full-fledged virtual world. With its own currency, brands, and social interactions, Second Life came to supplant reality for engrossed users.

1990s – 2000s

37Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user Rafael Valentim

Hype machines

The Oculus Rift ushered in a new era of VR hype with a step change in headset technology. Through motion tracking and powerful image displays optimized for human eyes, the device allowed users to lose themselves in a nearly-realistic 3D world.

2014 – 2015

38Luminary Labs | June 2017 Image: Flickr user woodleywonderworks

On the road to Viridian CityGlobal AR phenomenon PokémonGo sent millions of smartphone users in pursuit of virtual characters superimposed onto real places. Its popularity offered a glimpse into the market potential for engaging AR experiences.

2016


Form follows function

As we develop the power to make virtual experiences more believable, it’s time to go beyond entertainment and serve real needs. One early effort in this area is the EdSim Challenge, which seeks VR/AR simulations that will prepare America’s students for the future workforce.

2017


What needs to happen to make the hype real?


5 crucial VR improvements are on the horizon.


Less nauseaBetter blending of “virtual” and “real” will help combat motion sickness. Even adding a virtual “nose” has been shown to make a big difference.


Lower costs High-quality VR headsets still cost hundreds of dollars. But over the next few years, Tracticaestimates that prices will decline 15% per year.

$


More portability Today’s devices are often tethered or bulky. Lighter mobile devices with better resolution and battery life will generate new use cases and improve the value proposition.


Addition of social elements Most experiences are currently solitary. Social capabilities will uncover new applications for VR/AR and encourage more prolonged use.


Better exploration of safetyWearing an isolating headset can come with risks (e.g., walking into walls, tripping over tethers, losing your balance). Furthermore, scientists have yet to fully explore how VR experiences affect mental development.


What does this mean for business leaders?


A few questions to ask yourself...

Can today’s technology address a real problem in my company?

Is my team or company strategy early-adopter or wait-and-see?

What would the technology need to look like before I invest?


Sign up here for the Lab ReportMonthly sensemaking for the future-ready executive.

Follow us@LuminaryLabs

http://bit.ly/2sh0uIt


Technology

In Pursuit of Reality