Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation:

Towards a Framework for Climate Action

&What does this have to do with Forests?

Jesse RibotDepartment of Geography

University of Illinois

Impacts?

Dislocation

Famine

Hunger

Economic Loss

Reduced Wellbeing

Loss of LivelihoodCLIMATE EVENT

VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

Loss of Livelihood

Exploitation

Market Fluctuations

Lack of Planning

Environmental Variability or Change

Poor Infrastructure

PovertyResource Access

Political Exclusion

Poor Social Security System

Unstable Policy

Urban population

Retailers

Urban wholesalers

Transporters

Co-operatives

Merchants/Patrons

Migrant Woodcutters

Forest Villages

Rural Intermediaries

Kontrapalaas

Actors in Senegal’s Charcoal Market

Wood & Charcoal

Loans

Market regulations

Unofficial relations

Urban population

Retailers

Wholesalers

Transporters

Co-operatives

Merchants/Patrons

Migrant Woodcutters

Forest Villages

Other Institutions

- Unions

- Religious Brotherhoods

Ministries

National Forest Department

Rural Intermediaries

kontrapalaas

Regional Forest Service

Local Forest Service

ElectedRegional Council

Elected Rural

Council/PCR

PRICE STRUCTURE AND PROFIT MARGINS FOR A SACK OF CHARCOAL

(IN 2002 CONSTANT CFA)

1987 2002-2003 Change

Average Prices

Urban Woodcutter price to Merchant 839 778

Merchant price to Wholesaler 2806 3452

Wholesaler price to Retailer 3031 3769

Retailer to Customer in Dakar 3639 4076*??

Profit Margins (all costs deducted)

Woodcutter 734 727 -1%

Rural Intermediary - 30 -

Merchants 598 774 +29%

Urban Wholesalers 225 317 +41%

Retailer 519 183*?? -??

AVERAGE ANNUAL PROFIT OF ACTORS IN CHARCOAL MARKET

Actor

Annual Average

Profit(CFA)

Woodcutter 72,000

Rural Intermediary 236,000

Merchant 2,000,000

Urban Wholesaler 1,600,000

Retailer 180.000

Urban population

Retailers

Urban wholesalers

Transporters

Co-operatives

Merchants/Patrons

Migrant Woodcutters

Forest Villages

Rural

Intermediaries

PROFIT DISTRIBUTION IN MARKET

7%

22%

-

-

54%

16%

3%

Even

Skewed

-

-

Skewed

Even

Skewed

Retailers

Urban wholesalers

Merchants/Patrons

Migrant Woodcutters

Forest Villages

FONT-SCALED PROFIT DISTRIBUTION

EXPLAINING DISTRIBUTION: Old and New MECHANISMS OF BENEFIT CONCENTRATION

• Villagers Forest access control

• Woodcutters Access to merchants

• PCR Ability to delay start of seasonFormer Signature

• Merchants Control of labor opportunities Policy control of access to markets Leverage over prices

Subordination of PCR

• Wholesalers Control of distribution

• Retailers Maintenance of access to wholesalers Leverage over prices

Vulnerability Reduction Action Mapping

• Identify vulnerabilities of concern

• Identify categories of people at risk

• Analyze factors shaping each group’s vulnerabilities.

• Characterize proximate and root causes of their vulnerability

• Evaluate solutions that treat the elements and causes of vulnerabilities

• Aggregate causes and solutions across social categories and vulnerabilities– Which are most important? – Which are most prevalent? – Which are most treatable—technically, socially politically feasible? – What institutions and scales of intervention do causal structures imply?

• Map causes and adaptive opportunities onto responsive institutions

• Establish action and funding strategies

Livelihood Loss

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Dislocation

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Hunger

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Economic Loss

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∑Aggregate across

multiple causes

Place by Place/Group by Group

Analysis

Develop strategies to treat most salient causes:

x, b, c…

Livelihood Loss

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Dislocation

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Hunger

fube

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Economic Loss

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Role of Climate Variation

Place by Place/Group by Group

Analysis

Role Unregulated of Economy

Labor exploitation

Market access exclusion

Excessive management plans

Collusive low producer prices