Results of the study

Nuclear power for the economy,environment and development

“An opportunity to give Italy new energy”

Steering Committeexx

Fatih Birol Chief Economist, International Energy Agency

Gianluca Comin Director of External Relations, Enel

Bruno D’Onghia General Manager – Italy, EDF

Sergio GarribbaMember of the Board of Energy Policies, Ministry for Economic Development

Maurizio Lupi Vice President, Italian Chamber of Deputies

Carlo Rossella Journalist and Chairman, Medusa Film

Nicola Rossi Professor of Political Economics, University of Rome Tor Vergata

Umberto Veronesi Scientific Director, European Institute of Oncology

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1980 2000 2007 2015 2030

OECD Non OECD

Source: World Energy Outlook 2009, Reference Scenario, IEA

The world will demand more and more energy

Global electricity demand

+ 326%

TWh

“3+1” key objectives to be achieved

Security of the supplies obtained

Economic sustainability (stable low prices)

Environmental sustainability

+Reduction of dependency on fossil fuel sources

(in the medium-long term)

438 operating nuclear reactors in 2010 (52 in 1966)61 under construction and 149 planned reactors

x ≤ 2000

2001 ≤ x ≥ 10000

10001 ≤ x ≥ 30000

30001 ≤ x ≥ 60000

60001 ≤ x ≥ 80000

x ≥ 80001

LEGEND (MW)

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti on international database

Will this mean a nuclear renaissance?

Source: IAEA

Nuclear power: lower CO2 emissions

g/KWh

Source: IEA, Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010

Nuclear power: lower generating costs

Energy sustainability challenge for Italy

Primary energy: 86% dependency on foreign countries(EU average: 53%)

Annual electricity consumption: 14% imported(one of the world top 5 importer)

Production of electricity: >65% from gas, oil and their by-products (EU average: 27%)

Electricity price: +25-35% vs. EU average (and high volatility)

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti on AEEG, Eurostat, European Commission and Terna data

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti

Electricity demand trend in Italy20

07

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

0

80

160

240

320

400

480TWh 439 TWh in 2030*

(+ 36% since 2010)

(*) Hypothetical scenarios and studies (notforecasts); they includes hypotheses on energy

efficiency measures

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti

3 possible electricity generation study mixes for 2030*

(*) Non previsional study scenarios complying with EU “Climate and Energy Package” and with Italian Government “National Action Plan for Renewable

Energy Sources”

Reference scenario Alternative scenario

Integration scenario

73%62%

48%

27% 38%

27%

25%Nuclear power

Renewable

Fossil

(297 TWh)

(252 TWh)

(197 TWh)

(110 TWh) (155 TWh) (100 TWh)

(110 TWh)

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti

Electricity generation 2020-2030 with nuclear power

Lower Cost (Bln €) of Integration Scenario

-51 vs. Reference

-69 vs. Alternative

Reduced CO2 emission (Mton) of Integration Sc.

-381 vs. Reference

-236 vs. Alternative

463 488431

8275

63

330

380

430

480

530

580

Reference Sc.

Alternative Sc.

Integration Sc.

Cumulative generation cost 2020-2030

Cumulative CO2 emissions cost 2020-2030

Bln €

545563

494

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, Politecnico di Milano

(*) III generation nuclear reactor operating in Europe(**) Direct, indirect, related

Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (1)National Industry Development

One nuclear unit*: 2/3 Bln € potential orders for Italian industry

(3/4 Bln € with new competences)

>10.000 jobs (highly specialized)**

(9,000 construction; 1,200 operation; 150 decommissioning)

+National nuclear program as a “launching pad” for the wider

global market (value 400/500 Bln €)

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, CERTeT Bocconi

Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (2)Enhancement of country’s competitiveness

Reduction and stabilization of electricity costs and prices

Improvement and integration of the national energy supply chain, with positive impacts on energy users

Improvement of country’s competences and human capital

Overall impacts on the economic system:+4.5-11 Bln €/year for greater overall production

+38-81 thousand man-years

Source: The European House-Ambrosetti, V. E. Parsi

Additional benefits of nuclear power in Italy (3)Enhancement of geopolitical positioning

Reduction of political risk for current energy dependency

Possibility of increasing participation in the construction of global governance in the near future

Possibility of reinforcing international cooperation (especially on the southern side of the Mediterranean)

Possibility of participating in multilateral working groups to control nuclear proliferation

Concluding Remarks

Nuclear energy is experiencing a global growth, as it is a safe technology, with lower generation costs and CO2

emissions

“Return to nuclear” can provide considerable benefits for Italy: energy sustainability and as a driver for development

The nuclear program is an opportunity for Italy, but it has to be a shared choice of the country