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A discussion with the AGP Team, Addis Ababa, May 18, 2009
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High Potential Agricultural Growth Areas: Alternative Approaches and Considerations
A discussion with the AGP Team
IFPRI: ESSP-IIMay 18th, 2009
Emily SchmidtGIS / Rural Economic Knowledge Support Systems Coordinator
Mengistie KinduEIAR Forestry Research Center, GIS Specialist
Outline:
– Spatial overview of Ethiopia
– Crop suitability analysis
– Concluding observations
16% of the population is defined as urban, or lives in a town of at least 5,000 people
Topography in Ethiopia is varies widely, even across small areas
Annual rainfall varies across spaceRainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country
and the western slopes of mountains
Permanent rivers flow primarily in the highlands, but also in some lower elevation areas
In July through September, seasonal rivers / streams form throughout the country
Potential for irrigation is limited to specific areas given the varied terrain that characterizes
Ethiopian topography
Primary transportation networks are concentrated in the highland areas and specific international corridors
Population density follows the primary road networkNote: high population density in SNNP region
Transportation measured in market access displays large areas of remoteness (>10 hours travel to a city of 50k)
Even with planned regional road upgrades, much of the country remains disconnected to markets
• Less than 1% of the population of any region would improve their access to less than 1 hour
• An extra 530,000 people (3.7% of regional population) in SNNP would be within 3 hours
travel time of a city after regional road improvement.
Change in market access given modeled regional road upgrades
Region Total Population (thousands)
Access < 1 hour
Access < 3 hours
Access < 5 hours
Access > 5 hours
Tigray 4,113 0% 2.76% 9.76% -9.76%
Amhara 18,365 0% 2.92% 2.97% -2.97%
Oromia 25,492 0.60% 0.31% 4.17% -4.17%
SNNP 14,313 3% 3.71% 6.01% -6.01%
Addis Ababa 2,805 0% 0% 0% 0%
Other Regions 6,711 0% 4.89% 0.70% -0.70%
Total 71,799 0.73% 2.21% 4.06% -4.06%
Region Total Population
Access < 1 hour
Access < 3 hours
Access < 5 hours
Access > 5 hours
Tigray 4,113 323 1,098 2,343 1,770
Amhara 18,365 1,243 4,510 12,020 6,345
Oromia 25,492 1,409 5,090 12,716 12,776
SNNP 14,313 328 3,270 8,915 5,397
Addis Ababa 2,805 2,149 2,805 2,805 -
Other Regions 6,711 772 457 809 5,902
Total 71,799 6,225 17,230 39,609 32,190
Access to Cities of 50,000 Population (in thousands)
2006 Road Infrastructure
Percent population change in access with modeled upgrades on main regional roads
• Wurch Belt: No rainfed crops grow n•Frost is frequent, and afro-alpine grasslands dominate.
• Dega Belt: Barley, wheat, and pulses grown•No teff or maize expected to grow in this belt.
• Weyna Dega Belt: All major rainfed crops grown, particularly teff and maize grown
•Lower Weyna Dega is suitable for cash crops such as coffee and tea
•Kolla Belt: Sorghum is the dominant crop grownand teff and maize if rainfall permits
•Warmer temperature, with higher rainfall variability and recurring drought conditions.
•Berha Belt: no rainfed cultivation possible•Large-scale irrigation systems along major rivers have been developed, particularly along the Awash River.
Traditional agro-ecological zones
Major crops in the traditional AEZs
• Dega Belt: Barley, wheat, and pulses
• Weyna Dega Belt: Teff and maize-Lower Weyna Dega:Coffee and tea
• Kolla Belt: Sorghum-Teff and maize if rainfall permits
In general, transportation infrastructure follows high suitability areas
•Transportation infrastructure follows many areas delineated by the Weyna Dega Belt
•There are certain gaps between major arteries where road infrastructure could be further assessed
“Three” Ethiopias
• The three Ethiopias,
defined by the Ministry of
Agriculture provide area by
administrative unit that are
either:
•Drought Prone
•Moisture Reliable
•Pastoralist
•We further disaggregated
these areas to “Five”
Ethiopias in order to create
separate moisture reliable
areas into:
•Humid lowland
•Moisture reliable – cereals
•Moisture Reliable - enset
Further Refining Crop Suitability Areas (EIAR)
• Data used:– Mean Temperature– Length of Growing Period (LGP)– Soils– Slope– Administrative boundary – Others (protection areas i.e. forest priority areas, national parks), and water bodies
(lakes)
• Two classes Land Suitability were considered based on (FAO 1984):– S1. Highly suitable: land having no significant limitation to sustain application of a
given use
– S2. Moderately to marginally suitable: land having limitations for sustained application of a given use. The limitation will reduce productivity, and will increase required inputs.
• The environmental requirement for each target crop and each suitability class were defined by the findings of LUP&RD as set by FAO-UN
Methodology
Teff Suitability
• S1= NW, W, SW, C
• S2 = E
EIAR, March 2008
Wheat Suitability
• S1= C,NW, W, SW, S
• S2 = N, SW
EIAR, March 2008
Highland Maize Suitability
• S1= NW, W, C, S
• S2 = NW,S
EIAR, March 2008
Lowland Maize Suitability
• S1= N, S
• S2 = W
EIAR, March 2008
Food Barley Suitability
• S1= C, NW
• S2 = N, C
EIAR, March 2008
Malt Barley Suitability
• S1= NW, C, E
• S2 = C, NW, E
EIAR, March 2008
High suitability belts and traditional AEZs
Traditional zones are similar to the agricultural suitability zones following FAO guidelines
Approximately 434,000km² are considered high suitable areas for cereal crops
The high suitability areas for cereal crops are primarily in the highlands where rainfall is less variable.
Total high suitable area under FAO guidelines is 434,258 km²
16 percent of high suitability areas are remote (more than 10 hours travel time to a city of 50,000)
• 84 percent (365,898 km²) of the cereal crop high suitability area is within 10 hours travel time to a city of 50,000 or more people
• Specific areas for infrastructure improvement could be further investigated
Given topographic constraints, irrigation will be spatially dispersed along areas with optimal terrain
Further investigation in potential irrigable areas in the West could be pursued.
Final observations
There are high variations in crop suitability and agro ecology over short distances
Final Observations
Highly suitable land is scattered, and in some areas is not linked to markets
Final Observations
Road infrastructure and access to markets remains underdeveloped in many areas of the country
Current access to markets Access to markets with Regional improvements
Final Observations• Must confirm that location specific appropriate
technology is available in proposed investment areas
• Irrigated land potential is limited – not by water availability per se, but by land in appropriate basins given topographical constraints
• Integrated AGP needs to have sufficient resources to support infrastructure development for agricultural markets – Improved Road Network
– Electricity for cold storage chain
– Target irrigation projects
Amasegenalehu!
(thank you)
