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October 2013 TAGD Quarterly Meeting
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1 Mullican &Associates October 29, 2013
Presented By:
In Association With:
Mullican &Associates
Update of the Northern Trinity/WoodbineGroundwater Availability Model
Presented To:
Texas Alliance of Groundwater Districts
2 Mullican &Associates
Study Region
3 Mullican &Associates
Projected Population
State Water Plan – TWDB, 2012
• Priority Groundwater Management Area
• Greatest water level declines in the state
• Population projected to increase greater than 100 % in next 50 years
4 Mullican &Associates
Districts in Model Area
5 Mullican &Associates
“Districts located within the same groundwater management areas or in adjacent management areas may contract to jointly conduct studies or research, or to construct projects, under terms and conditions that the districts consider beneficial. These joint efforts may include studies of groundwater availability and quality, aquifer modeling,…”
Texas Water Code § 36.108 (p)
6 Mullican &Associates
Project Organization
Inter-LocalAgreementNorth Texas GCD
Northern Trinity GCDPrairielands GCD
Upper Trinity GCD
Mullican &Associates
7 Mullican &Associates
Contract Management –
Technical Reviews
TWDB LiaisonStakeholder Processes
Mullican and Associates
NTWO Project Execution
8 Mullican &Associates
Contract Management Committee
Technical Advisory Committee
TWDB GAM Program
NTWO Project Execution Elements
9 Mullican &Associates
Integration with Joint-Planning Process
Scope of modeling project designed to be compatible and to provide maximum benefit to the joint-planning process in GMA-8 Initial predictive simulation to be agreed to by
GMA-8 District Representatives will be developed and performed as part of the project scope Other information developed in support of the
project scope will be of use in the development of the GMA-8 Explanatory Report
10 Mullican &Associates
Project Schedule and GMA Schedule
2013 20152014 2016
GAM Development
8/14
GMA-8 DFC Development
4/16
TWDB MAG
90
2017
11 Mullican &Associates
Benefits to GMA-8 Districts
Overhaul a critical tool in meeting the District missions -Trinity/Woodbine Aquifer GAM (NTWGAM) Address documented limitations in the current
NTWGAM Expand calibration period to 2010 More accurate predictions at the County scale
Development of an new GAM that can be used for GMA-8 in this round of joint planning
12 Mullican &Associates
Factors for Meeting Study Objectives
• Finer-model scale (grid size)• Stakeholder support and data collection• Detailed hydrostratigraphic framework using
state-of-of the art tools• Extensive effort in collection of aquifer data• Calibration from PreD to 2010• Detailed conceptual water balance prior to
model development• Use a reproducible and documented approach
13 Mullican &Associates
Challenges for Meeting Study Objectives
• Developing a model grid that can meet the objectives but still be manageable
• Lack of data• No matter how much data you have – you can
never have enough to inform every grid cell• As a result, one has to rely on data driven
conceptual models of key model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, recharge) to guide model development
14 Mullican &Associates
Work Scope Task Structure
• Task 1 – Project Management• Task 2 – Stakeholder Communication• Task 3 – Conceptual Model Development• Task 4 – Model Construction• Task 5 – Model Calibration
• Steady-State – Predevelopment• Historical – Predevelopment through 2010 (or latest)
• Task 6 – Model Visualization Tools• Task 7 – Model Documentation
15 Mullican &Associates
Task 3 – Conceptual Model Development
• Identify relevant processes and physical elements controlling GW flow in the aquifer:
- Geologic Framework- Hydrologic Framework- Hydraulic Properties- Sources & Sinks (Water Budget)
• Determine Data Deficiencies
IThe conceptual model dictates how we translate the “real world” to the mathematical model.
16 Mullican &Associates
Horizontal Model Grid (Scale)
• Refinement Provides– Better representation of
topographic gradients– Better definition of topographic
lows
• The smaller the grid, the more local the flow system that can be modeled
• Generally, the smaller the grid, the more amount of discharge (recharge) can be modeled
1/4 mile
1 mile
5 mile
17 Mullican &Associates
From Eberts and others, 1998
Conceptual Groundwater Flow System
Groundwater flow systems are hierarchal
Vertical Scale Issues – Also Important
18 Mullican &Associates
Conceptual Model Review
19 Mullican &Associates
Stakeholder Data Requested & Received
• Data Requested:– Well databases– Aquifer test data– Water level data– Water quality data– Aquifer production data– Geophysical logs– Natural aquifer discharge data (springs/streams)– District developed reports
20 Mullican &Associates
HydrostratigaphicFramework
21 Mullican &Associates
Hydrostratigraphic Framework
• Hydrostratigraphic Framework• Aquifer surfaces,• Lithology,• Depositional environments
• Correlation methods and software are state-of-the-art• Using PETRA© which is the oil and gas industry standard• All methods, logs and data will be documented and available to
the public for further use• Hydrostratigraphy provides a framework for
estimation of hydraulic properties
22 Mullican &Associates
Structure / Lithologic Control
Update NTW GAM1498 Logs collected1,302 CorrelatedLithology developed for all logs
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Hydrostratigraphic Units (HSUs)
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Cross Section Base Map
Type Log Location
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100 mi0
HillMcLennan DallasEllis Denton Grayson Fannin LamarCln
Woodbine
WashitaFred’burg
Paluxy
Glen Rose
Pearsall
Hosston
2000
ft
Strike Cross Section – South to North
26 Mullican &Associates
Paluxy Hydrostratigraphic UnitPercent Sand
Depositional Environments
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Aquifer Properties
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Geohydrostratigraphic Model (GHS)
• A conceptual GHS combines lithologic and depositional information with hydraulic test information to provide a framework for estimating hydraulic properties across all hydrostratigraphicunits (HSUs)
• GHS should allow for the model to be calibrated in a framework which is:• Allows for estimation of properties across the
model domain• Constrained on aquifer data to avoid unrealistic
parameter values
29 Mullican &Associates
GHS Model Approach• Assemble Aquifer Pump & Specific Capacity Test Data and
Calulate Transmissivities• Develop Lithologic-Unit Profiles from geophysical logs for all
HSUs represented in model• For Each HSU
– Calculate “Average” K’s of Lithologic Units from Aquifer Tests – Estimate a “Average Transmissivity” for HSUs at each geophysical log
location
• Calibrate model to Simultaneously Match Water Levels as well as Measured and Estimate Aquifer Parameters
• Final Model is based on achieving Acceptable Matches to Both Water Levels (model output) and Aquifer Properties (model input)
30 Mullican &Associates
Pumping Tests from PWS, Literature and GCDs
Public Water Supply Well Number
In TCEQ Database 4530
Identified Pumping Tests 1010Reliable Pumping Tests with WellScreen Information 820
Good Tests that Meet QA/QC 340
Literature & GCD Tests 160
31 Mullican &Associates
Specific Capacity Data from Well Driller Logs
Metric NumberTotal Wells 85,903 Wells with Drawdown 24,346 Wells with Pumping Rate 43,936 Both Drawdown and Pumping Rate 24,283 Wells with Screen Info / Top of Screen 47,689 Wells with Depth 85,846 Wells with Water Level 44,216
12,364 Specific Capacity Tests met QA/QC Requirements
32 Mullican &Associates
Aquifer Tests and Specific Capacity Tests
Local Data Control
33 Mullican &Associates
GHS Case ExampleDetermining Litho-Units Kh Values based on Matching Measured Kh from Seven Aquifer Tests using ThreeLithologic Unit Classifications
Clay Sand
Fine Sand
Gravelly Sand
1.6 6.2 8.4
Est. Kh (ft/d) for Litho-Units
Clayey Fine Gravelly 1 4.02 40 1 20 3.91 0.11 3%2 2.59 50 30 1 3.37 -0.77 -30%3 6.76 25 10 50 6.15 0.61 9%4 2.89 60 20 10 3.37 -0.48 -16%5 6.71 20 20 45 6.29 0.42 6%6 6.29 10 60 35 6.49 -0.20 -3%7 9.22 5 5 80 7.93 1.29 14%
Test 1:
Aquifer Test
Measured Kh (ft/d)
Length (ft) of Sand Litho-
Kh Error = Measured Kh - Fitted Kh = 4.02 - 3.91 = 0.11
Fitted Kh = {(40 * 1.6)+(1*6.2)+(20*8.4)}/61 = 3.9
Fitted Kh
(ft/d) Kh Error
(ft/d) Kh Error
(%)
GHS allows estimation of hydraulic conductivity at all location where you know lithology
34 Mullican &Associates
Hydr. Prop. / Case Example
Clay sand: L1 = 40 ft, Kh1= 1.6 ft/d
Fine sand: L2 = 1 ft, Kh2= 6.2 ft/d
Gravelly sand: L3 = 20 ft, Kh3= 8.4 ft/d
Kh = Kh1 * L1/(Tot_L) +Kh2 * L2/(Tot_L) + Kh3 * L3/(Tot_L)
= 1.6 *40/61 + 6.2 *1/61 + 8.4*20/61= 3.9 ft/d
Tot_
L=
61 ft
Calculating Kh at each of the 35 Geophysical Log Locations
Kh = Arithematic Average
35 Mullican &Associates
Hydr. Prop. / Case ExampleCalculating Kv at each of the 35 Geophysical Log Locations
Kv =L1 + L2 + L3
L1/Kv1 + L2/Kv2 + L3/Kv3
= 6140/0.016 + 1/0.062 + 20/0.084
= 0.022 ft/d
Assumption: For all Litho-Units Kv = 0.01 * Kh
36 Mullican &Associates
Lithologic and Property Control
Woodbine 80 16 406Fredericksburg 21 10 587Paluxy 44 13 671Glen Rose 65 17 749Hensell 51 9 782Pearsall 73 21 797Hosston 166 65 784Total 500 151 4776
Hydrostratigraphic Unit
Number of Geophysical Logs
Number of Aquifer Pumping
Tests
Number of Aquifer Pumping Tests
(Filtered)
By developing a GHS for each HSU, we use a limited number of excellent aquifer tests combined with detailed lithologic data to develop 4,776 estimates of hydraulic conductivity
37 Mullican &Associates
Paluxy Hydrostratigraphic Unit
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Texa
s
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Louisiana
0 4020
Miles
Woodbine Aquifer BoundaryTrinity Aquifer BoundaryActive Model BoundaryCounty BoundaryState Boundary
! Well Log
ÜConductivity Paluxy(ft/d)
0 - 0.80.9 - 1.11.1 - 1.21.2 - 1.51.5 - 2.32.3 - 4.7
Hydraulic Conductivity
(feet/day)
13 Excellent Aquifer Tests with Lithology Provide for 671 Estimates
of Hydraulic Conductivity (feet/day)
38 Mullican &Associates
Hydraulic Heads and Groundwater Flow
39 Mullican &Associates
Hydraulic Heads & Groundwater Flow
• Documented water level data sources• Assigned heads to HSUs• Developed Pre-Development head surfaces• Developed hydraulic head surfaces for 1950, 1970, 1990
and 2010• Developed drawdown maps from Predevelopment to
1950 and to 2010• Developed transient hydrographs• Tabulated calibration targets• Analyzed trends in water levels• Analyzed vertical gradients
40 Mullican &Associates
Multi-Completed Wells & Nomenclature
34,863 locations where we have calibration water level information of a total of 45,595 possible locations
41 Mullican &Associates
Multi-Completed Wells & Nomenclature
HSU Terminology Used to Express Water Source forWells Completed Across Multiple HSUs in the Trinity Group
Paluxy Aquifer
Glen Rose Formation
Hensell Aquifer
Pearsall Formation
Hosston Aquifer
upper-middleTrinityaquifer middle-
lowerTrinityaquifer
TrinityGroup
Henselland
Hosstonaquifers
upperTrinityaquifer
lowerTrinityaquifer
middleTrinityaquifer
42 Mullican &Associates
Predevelopment Water Levels
Courtesy of Robert Mace
43 Mullican &Associates
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!! !! !! !!! !!! !!!! ! ! ! !! !! !! !! !
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!.!.
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!.
ArkansasLouisiana
0 5025
Miles
ÜO kla h oma
Te x as
Flowing Wells
Woodbine Aquifer OutcropWoodbine Aquifer DowndipTrinity Aquifer OutcropTrinity Aquifer DowndipActive Model BoundaryCounty BoundaryState Boundary
TWDB groundwater database!. Trinity Aquifer!. Woodbine Aquifer
Hill (1901) - approx. locations! Trinity Aquifer! Woodbine Aquifer
44 Mullican &Associates
Springs
• ~76 springs or groups of springs on Trinity Aquifer outcrop
• ~ 14 springs or groups of springs on Woodbine Aquifer outcrop
• 5 flowed >100 gpm at one time
• Many springs now dry or flow at reduced rate
• No recent flow data • Range from dry to >600
gpm (Lampasas Co in 1973)EEEE EEEEEEEEEE
EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEE EE EEEEEEEEEEE
E EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE EEEE
EEEEE EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
EE EEE EE
E
EEEEEEEEE EEEEEE
EEEE EEE
EEEE
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EE EEE EE
EEEEE
EE
E
EE
E
@@@ @@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@@@@@@@
@@@@@@@@ @@@ @@ @@@@@@@@@@@@
@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @
@@@@@
@@@@ @@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@ @@@@@@@
@@@@@ @
@
@
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@
B
B#BBB
BB BB # B#B B#BB
BBBB### B B #B##
B#
BBB BB B
BB BBB B BB# ##BB ##BBB ## # BBB BB #
#BB BB BBB
#B B #BB
B BB BBB B
BB ###B## ## # B
##BB# BB #B# B ##B## B# B #
ArkansasLouisiana
0 5025
Miles
ÜO kla h oma
Te xa s
Woodbine Aquifer OutcropWoodbine Aquifer DowndipTrinity Aquifer OutcropTrinity Aquifer DowndipActive Model BoundaryCounty BoundaryState Boundary
TWDB Springs@ Alluvium@ Woodbine Aquifer@ Fred./Washita Grps@ Trinity Aquifer@ unknown
USGS SpringsE AlluviumE Fred./Washita GrpsE Trinity AquiferE unknown
Brune Springs (approx. locations)# AlluviumB Austin GrpB Woodbine AquiferB Fred./Washita GrpsB Trinity Aquifer# lower Cretaceous# unknown
45 Mullican &Associates
Location of Long-Term Hydrographs
904 Long-term calibration hydrographs
46 Mullican &Associates
Location of Long-Term Hydrographs
47 Mullican &Associates
Example Long-Term Hydrograph
48 Mullican &Associates
Water Level Decline – Hosston 1950
49 Mullican &Associates
Water Level Decline – Hosston 2010
50 Mullican &Associates
Aquifer Water Balance –Recharge / Discharge
51 Mullican &Associates
Recharge• Used multiple methods to estimate recharge:
• Stream baseflow analysis• Water balance methods• Chloride mass balance method• Literature review
• Also reviewed physical controls on recharge including precipitation, soil permeability and land use/land cover
• Aquifer discharge to streams (baseflow) provided the most consistent estimate of recharge• Provides a lower estimate of shallow aquifer
system recharge• Provides the basis for a spatial and temporal model
52 Mullican &Associates
Baseflow (in/yr) ≈ Recharge !.
!.
!. !.
!.
!.!.!. !.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.!.
!. !.
!.
!.!.
!.!.
!.
!.
!.
!.!.
!.
!.!.!.!.
!.Te
xas
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Louisiana
Colorado River
Lampasas
Ri v e r
Re d R ive r
B razos R ive r
Le on
Ri ver
L itt l e R iv er
Tr ini t y
Riv er
0 5025
Miles
Woodbine Aquifer OutcropWoodbine Aquifer DowndipTrinity Aquifer OutcropTrinity Aquifer DowndipActive Model BoundaryCounty BoundaryState Boundary
ÜAverage annual recharge (in/yr)
0.20 - 0.750.75 - 1.251.25 - 2.502.50 - 3.753.75 - 5.50
!. USGS gage (perennial, >10 years unregulated data)RiverReservoir
53 Mullican &Associates
Base-Case Recharge Model
Texa
s
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Louisiana
0 5025
Miles
Woodbine Aquifer OutcropTrinity Aquifer OutcropActive Model BoundaryCounty BoundaryState Boundary
ÜAverage Recharge (in/yr)
0 - 0.5 0.5 - 11 - 22 - 33 - 44 - 5.4
54 Mullican &Associates
Conceptual Water Balance
Region Shallow Recharge Percent of Precip Confined Flow (1) Percent of Precip(acre-feet/year) acre-feet/year
North 1,012,300 10.6% 75,000 - 140,000 0.8 % - 1.4 %Central 548,901 4.6% 120,000 - 168,000 1 % - 1.4 %South 348,158 1.8% 78,000 - 120,000 0.4 % - 0.6 %
TOTAL 1,909,360 273,000 - 428,000
55 Mullican &Associates
Water Quality
56 Mullican &Associates
Extent of 1,000 ppm
57 Mullican &Associates
Historical Pumping
58 Mullican &Associates
Historical Pumping Tarrant Co.
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Year
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Pum
page
(AFY
)
RD (Calculated)IND (Nordstrom, 1982)IND GCDIRR (Calculated)IRR (Nordstrom, 1982)IRR TWDBMAN TWDBMIN TWDB
MIN (Nicot, 2011)MUN (George & Rose, 1942)MUN (Leggat, 1957)MUN (Nordstrom, 1982)MUN TWDBMUN GCDPWR TWDB
STK (Calculated)STK TWDBLBG Calc TotalNordstrom (1982) TotalTWDB TotalGCD TotalDutton Total
Tarrant CountyHistorical Pumpage
Trinity Aquifer
59 Mullican &Associates
Historical Pumping Tarrant Co.Pu
mpa
ge(A
FY)
60 Mullican &Associates
Historical Pumping Rate (AFY)
61 Mullican &Associates
Historical Cumulative Pumping (AF)
62 Mullican &Associates
Conceptual Framework and Implementation
63 Mullican &Associates
Hosston
WoodbineFredericksburg/
Washita
Paluxy
Glen Rose
HensellPearsall-Cow Creek-
Hammett
Younger Strata
A
A’
Extent of Fresh Water
Flow Direction
Predevelopment Conditions
64 Mullican &Associates
Hosston
WoodbineFredericksburg/
Washita
Paluxy
Glen Rose
HensellPearsall-Cow Creek-
Hammett
Younger Strata
A
A’
Flow Direction
Post-development Conditions
65 Mullican &Associates
Layer 2
Layer 3
Layer 4
Layer 5
Layer 6
Layer 7
YoungerSediments
Woodbine Aquifer
Glen Rose Formation
Paluxy Aquifer
Hensell Aquifer
Layer 1
Layer 8
Washita/
Fredericksburg Groups
Pearsall FormationHosston Aquifer
Implementation
Total Model Grid Cells = 12,696,704Active Model Gris Cells = 4,818,240
66 Mullican &Associates
Draft Conceptual Model Report• Report submitted to meet
and surpass TWDB standards
• Geodatabase consistent with GAM Standards
• Appendices• GCD Database• Bibliography of Historical Reports• Stratigraphic Cross-sections• Aquifer Test Plots and Analyses• Summary of Historical Development of
Aquifers• Historical Hydrographs• Stream Discharge and Baseflow Plots• Historical Pumping Estimates• Geodatabase• Structure Visulaization Tool
67 Mullican &Associates
Comments Received
• Texas Water Development Board (TWDB)• United States Geological Survey (USGS)• Mullican and Associates• Dennis Erinakes (Prairielands)• Mike Massey (Upper Trinity)• Collier Consulting (North Texas)• WBarW (Clearwater)
68 Mullican &Associates
PDF Visualization Tool
69 Mullican &Associates
View of Lithology
70 Mullican &Associates
Limestone removed from Boreholes
71 Mullican &Associates
Path Forward
• All draft conceptual model report comments will be documented and a final report submitted.
• Model construction and calibration is ongoing• Plan to have the draft steady-state and
transient models in late April of 2014.
72 Mullican &Associates
Project Schedule
73 Mullican &Associates
Mullican& Associates