GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: CHALLENGE FOR SURVIVAL

A Lecture of DENR during the RCDC Meeting (2011)

Dagupan City

Our precious planet

Saving the environment could be this century’s biggest challenge

Source: Time Magazine, 1997PAGASA/DOST

What is global warming?

Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s meantemperature as a result of enhanced greenhouse effect.

collective picture of a warming world

Strong temperature

increase since 1975

(unprecedented)

global average air

temperature increased

by 0.74°C from 1906

to 2005

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the local scale?

• In the Philippines, there are already trends ofincreasing number of hot days and warm nights, butdecreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Bothmaximum and minimum temperatures are generallygetting warmer.

• Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rainshave been seen to be more frequent.

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in

the local scale?

A substantial amount of coral reefs in the country have been found to have been affected by bleaching during events of warmer sea surface temperatures.

Bleaching of the coral reefs is associated with the loss of symbiotic algae and/or their pigments, and the death of the corals if the warming of the sea surface temperatures are prolonged.

• Even the rainforests of the seas –the coral reefs, are taking the brunt of the warming atmosphere

• Some 30% of coral reefs are already irreparably damaged (mainly due to rising sea surface temperatures)

Did you know that . . .

Global warming could lead to freakish weatherpatterns such as unexpected drought, typhoons, andsudden snowstorms.

Early springs, melting ice and rising sea levels have allbeen blamed on climate change.

What is happening???

• IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Findings

– Global average surface temperature increased by 0.74°C (1960-2005)which is higher than the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of 0.6°C(1901-2000)

– Global average sea level rose due to increase in the global averagesurface temperature at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961to 2003 or a total of 0.17m for the 21st century

– The increasing concentration of Green House Gases in theatmosphere caused by human activities will further trigger acontinuing increase of global temperature or global warming.

RAPID INCREASE IN EMISSION OF GREENHOUSE

GASSES LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO GLOBAL WARMING

• Carbon Dioxide has increased by 30%• Methane has increased by 145%• Nitrous Oxide has increased by 15%

INCREASE in 200

Years

20th Century Global Warming

1990’s = Warmest Decade

1998 = Warmest Year Since 1861

What is climate change?

Climate change is a “change in climatewhich is attributed directly to human activitythat alters the composition of the globalatmosphere and which is in addition to naturalclimate variability observed over comparabletime periods.”

- (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC])

To be able to understand

climate change is to

understand first the concept

of the

‘greenhouse effect’.

So what are the greenhouse gases?

• Carbon dioxide• Methane• Nitrous Oxide• Ozone• Water Vapor

These are naturally found in the atmosphere and they

trap heat close to the Earth’s surface. But by burning

of fossil fuels to sustain our modern lifestyle, we

increase their levels very fast.

Importance of the Greenhouse Gases (GHGs)

These are the naturally occurring gases thatkeep the Earth comfortably warm enough forplants and animals to live in at an averagetemperature of 15oC.

Produced by natural processes:

a. water cycle

b. growth and death of plants and animals

c. decaying of wood and other biodegradablematerials

d. volcanic activities

CARBON DIOXIDE METHANE

NITROUS OXIDE

- Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen

in Soils and Ocean

Human activitiescan also cause climate change.

Scientists now agree that most of the global warming today have been caused

by human activities.

Human activities that lead to the increase inconcentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) include:

Worldwide deforestation

Increasing industrialactivity

Motor vehicle emission

Waste managementpractices

Intensive agriculture

Methane - Decomposition of Garbage and Agricultural Waste

Materials, Leaks in Coal Mining and Natural Gas Production

Accounts for 20% of additional greenhouse effects

KLIMA

Waste as a source of GHG emissions

• Decaying solid waste in landfills emits methane

KLIMA

Waste as a source of GHG emissions

Decomposing waste in water can also

emit methane

Nitrous Oxide:• Bacterial Breakdown of Nitrogen in Soils and Oceans

• Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer and Pesticides in Agriculture

• Biomass Burning

• Combustion Process Vehicles

• Acid Production

CARBON DIOXIDE - Burning of Fossil Fuels

(Oil, Coal) by Powerplants, Industries and

Vehicles

How do greenhouse gases influence climate change?

The higher theconcentration ofgreenhouse gases in theatmosphere particularlycarbon dioxide, thestronger the greenhouseeffect.

Increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs)as a result of

human activities[Enhanced greenhouse effect]

Increase in global surface temperature

Climate ChangeSea Level Rise

Extreme changes in weather patterns

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004) PAGASA/DOST

).

CO2 Concentration in Ice Core Samples andProjections for Next 100 Years

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Years Before Present(B.P. -- 1950)

CO

2 C

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(p

pm

v)

Vostok Record

IPCC IS92a Scenario

Law Dome Record

Mauna Loa Record

Current(2001)

Projected(2100)

0100,000200,000300,000400,000

CO

2C

on

cen

trati

on

(p

pm

v)

(BP 1950)

Projected (2100)

Current (2001)

Scientific evidences:

For 420,000 years the CO2 concentration in the

atmosphere has remained within tight bounds

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2001

KLIMA

150 100 50 0

Thousands of Years ago

Tem

pera

ture

ch

an

ge (

oC

)

Carb

on

dio

xid

e (

pp

mv)

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature

Change

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)

PAGASA/DOST

RISE IN TEMPERATURE

• Accelerate melting of glacier

• Increase in sea level

• Shrinking of sea ice

• Increased coastal

flooding

• Enhanced coastal

erosion

• Salt-water

intrusion

Possible Impacts

• Impacts of storm

surge magnified

Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise

3D modeling and visualization tools are used for vulnerability

assessment, exact location and quantification of areas which are

susceptible to floods due to rise in sea level.

Study area: Northern part of Navotas, Metro Manila

• ACCELERATE MELTING OF GLACIERS

Increase of Sea Level

Inundation/ Flooding of Low

Lying Areas and Small

Islands

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)PAGASA/DOST

Mt.Kilimanjaro, Tanzania

1993 2000

IUCN

Thinning of Arctic sea-ice, retreat of non-polar glacier &

snow cover

20 th century changes in climate and biophysical system

(already observed)

Source: National Geographic Magazine (2004)

PAGASA/DOST

Reduce ability of Ecosystem to Absorb

Greenhouse Gasses

Typhoon Ondoy with international name of Ketsana:

• Entered the Philippines September 26, 2009

• Dumped 344 mm. or 13.4 inches of rainfall in just six hours equivalent to a months worth of rainfall in the country

• 377 dead• 308 injured• 37 missing

Children, women and the elderly are the

most vulnerable during times of natural

calamities

Typhoon Pepeng (International Name:Parma) Last October 9, 2009with maximum sustained winds of 130 kph and gustiness of 160 kph wrecked havoc in Pangasinan, Tarlac, Benguet Province, IlocosRegion, Baguio, Mountain Province and Cordillera Region.

• Official death toll: 198 people and 46 missing

• Typhoon Pepeng dumped one of the heaviest rains recorded, heavier than the rain water dumped by Typhoon Ondoy

• Caused landslides, destroyed infrastructures and wide spread flooding throughout Northern Luzon.

Floodwaters caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma submerge houses in Carmen, Pangasinan,

northern Philippines in this photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard October 9, 2009. A week of

relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages under water, with more

than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.

Residents are stranded on a roof as floodwaters caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma submerge

houses in Carmen, Pangasinan, northern Philippines in this photo released by the Philippine Coast Guard

October 9, 2009. A week of relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages

under water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.

People mill around a shopping mall to retrieve washed away goods after it was flooded in the town of

Rosales, Pangasinan province north of Manila on October 9, 2009. The death toll from two weeks of

unprecedented storms across the northern Philippines soared past 540 on October after landslides

consumed homes and neck-deep floods inundated towns.

Rescuers search for possible survivors after a landslide caused by rains brought by Typhoon Parma in Baguio City, north of

Manila October 9, 2009. A week of relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages under

water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials said on Friday.

Iron sheet roofing lie on the ground after being damaged by strong winds during Typhoon Parma in Cagayan Valley, northern

Philippines in this October 3, 2009 video grab. Typhoon Parma slammed into the northeastern tip of the Philippines on Saturday,

tearing roofs off houses and uprooting trees, but there were no immediate reports of casualties

Inundated vehicles by floodwaters brought on by typhoon Parma are seen on a

highway in Rosales Pangasinan north of Manila October 9, 2009. A week of

relentless rains in the northern Philippines have put dozens of towns and villages

under water, with more than 100 people drowned or killed by landslides, officials

said on Friday.

Occurrences of droughts have

become more widespread

throughout the entire world due to

global warming

• As the earth’s surface

temperature increases due to

global warming, moisture

evaporation have become more

intense causing the soil to

become much much drier

leading eventually to drought.

The Philippines has not

been spared of the

weather-related

disturbances and

disasters. The past

typhoons have been

unusually heavy and

have brought devastation

to our country and our

people.

Landslides in Benguet Province during the onslaught of typhoon pepenr. Rescuers dig up the

10 persons who were reportedly buried alive after their houses collapsed at the height of

typhoon ‘Pepeng’ on Friday. But the retrieval operation was stopped due to the extent of

damage in the area. (Photo by RIZALDY COMANDA)

Landslide caused by Typhoon Lupit in Cordillera

Autonomous Region on October 21, 2009

CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS:

- VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > DEVASTATIONS AND HIGH LOSS OF

LIVES AND PROPERTIES

HEALTH RISKS:• VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > HEATWAVES &EXTREME COLD

FRONTS

• HIGH RISK FOR THE OLD, THE SICK, CHILDREN AND THE POOR

• ECOSYSTEMS ARE DESTROYED

Climate-related health risks

• Direct impacts through cold or heat stress

• Indirect impacts through communicable

and non-communicable diseases

(particularly coronary and respiratory)

Climate-related health risks

– WHO identified 14 climate-sensitive

communicable diseases (malaria,

cholera, dengue, etc.)

Climate-related health risks

– Link between atmospheric air quality,

airborne particulate matter, aggravated

cardiac and respiratory diseases

(bronchitis, asthma and emphysema)

and various forms of heart disease.

(Connor, 2007)

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE

• DISRUPT CYCLE OF

PLANTING AND HARVESTING

• DISRUPTS FEEDING HABITS,

MIGRATION AND

REPRODUCTIVE PATTERN OF

ANIMALS

• DEVASTATIONS FROM EL

NINO AND LA NINA

LOW PRODUCTIVITY AND

FOOD SHORTAGE

LOSS OF INCOME OF

POOR FARMERS AND

FISHERMEN

VARIABILITY IN TEMPERATURE > EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

CALAMITIES AND DISASTERS

• Typhoons and Floods

The Philippines is located in the typhoon belt. An average of 20 typhoons visit the country every year and incidents of flooding are higher in the country than anywhere else.

Source: PAGASA

LANDSLIDES MUD FLOWS

32,400 Kilometers, Longest Coastline

Impacts: Water resources

• Decreased/increased water availability

(soil erosion)

• Increased drought risk (including land

degradation)

• Poor quality of water (algal blooms, etc.)

Impacts: Water resources

• Increased water demand

• Domestic water supply problems

• Impact on power generation

Impacts: Agriculture (forestry)

• Damage to crops/crop failure

• Reduced yields in warmer environment

• Food security threatened / Malnutrition

Impacts: Agriculture (forestry)

• Increased outbreaks of pests and

diseases

• Increased risk of forest fires

• Increased shift of species

Impacts: Human societyand national economy

• Disruption of settlements and attendant

needs of humans

• Potential for increased migration

• Pressures on urban infrastructures

• Reduced GDP

– Birds species in the United Kingdom arelaying eggs nine days earlier, while othershave fled north or to higher altitudes (coolerclimes)

Hundreds of animals and plants are responding to climate change by jumping their biological clocks

Climate change Impact to animal species

Shrinking sea ice– May induce decline of Krill

population and could result in less food supply to seabirds, whales, seals

PAGASA/DOST

Climate change Impact to animal species

• Warming trend nighttime temperature and cloud cover

• 2/3 of 110 known species of harlequins (frogs) have vanished

• Subtle change ideal for chytrid disease that kills the frogs(fungus flourish in wet season turning lethal at 17°C to 25°C

• Disease was the bullet that killed frogs but CLIMATE was the trigger

Source: The Bulletin with Newsweek, Oct. 2006

Climate change Impact to animal species

Trouble beyond tropics

• Certain species migrating further north of their habitat

– ex: Edith’s checkerspot

• CONCERN OVERCLIMATE CHANGE MANIFESTEDTHE PAST

30 YEARS

• 1ST WORLD CLIMATE CONFERENCE IN 1979:

• EXPLORED RELATION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND

HUMAN ACTIVITIES

• GOVERNMENTS CAUTIONED AGAINST ACTIVITIES

AFFECTING CLIMATE CHANGE

• INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC) ESTABLISHED BY UNITED NATIONS IN 1988:

• PROVIDE SCIENTIFIC PROOF OF CLIMATE CHANGE

• ASSESS ECONOMIC, SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

• FORMULATE RESPONSE STRATEGIES

1990 – IPCC SCIENTIFCALLY CONFIRMED EXISTENCE OF CLIMATE

CHANGE

• UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE

(UNFCCC) SIGNED BY 154 HEADS OF STATES/REPRESENTATIVES IN RIO DE

JANEIRO IN 1992:

• ENTERED INTO FORCE IN MARCH 1994

• AGREEMENT TO STABILIZE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

• DEVELOPED COUNTRIES COMMITTED TO REDUCE THEIR GREENHOUSE

GAS EMISSIONS TO 1990 LEVEL BY YEAR 2000.

• MANDATED ALL MEMBERS TO HAVE INVENTORY OF GREENHOUSE GAS

EMISSIONS AND DEVELOP STRATEGIES/PROGRAMS TO ADAPT TO AND

MITIGATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

KYOTO PROTOCOL ADOPTED BY

10,000 DELEGATES IN KYOTO, JAPAN

-- ENTERED INTO FORCE In FEBRUARY 2004

PRESENTLY, 169 COUNTRIES HAVE RATIFIED THE

PROTOCOL

-- PROVIDE FOR CLEARER AND BIGGER TARGET OF

5% REDUCTION IN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY

DEVELOPED COUNTRIES BY 2012

-- NO REDUCTION REQUIREMENT FOR DEVELOPING

COUNTRIES

• Provided flexibility to developed countries

in meeting their emission reductions.

• Established the Clean Development

Mechanism or CDM,

• Allows Developed Countries to Offset their

Greenhouse Gas Emission by buying

Equivalent amount from projects intended

to absorb Greenhouse Gasses

• Majority of Projects are in Developing

Countries

Carbon trading benefits the

developed countries by helping them

comply with the emission reductions

without affecting their domestic

production levels and, at the same

time, benefit the developing

countries in terms of investments in

CDM projects, promote the use of

cleaner technologies in energy and

industry and provide jobs and

income to communities undertaking

the projects.

513 PROJECTS REGISTERED WITH CDM EXECUTIVE BOARD TO

GENERATE 740 MILLION TONS OF CARBON DIOXIDE EQUIVALENT

THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD

This is an appeal made by France andEthiopia, representing Africa to the UnitedNations Framework Convention on ClimateChange (UNFCC) to adopt an ambitiousagreement on December 18, 2009 limitingthe increase of temperature to 2 degreescelsius above pre-industrial levels asrecommended by the International Panel onClimate Change (IPCC) and ensuing thatvulnerable countries will receive adequatefinancing to face the challenge.

The agreement will be applicable immediatelyand will be translated into legal internationalagreement by 2010.

President Sarkozy and Mr Zenawi, Prime Minister of Ethiopia

France and Ethiopia, representing Africa call for:

1. The halving of global emission by 2050 compared to the 1990 level.

a. Developed countries reduce their carbon dioxide emission by 80% by 2050 and adopt coherent and comparable mid-term objectives.

b. Advanced developing countries adopt ambitious low carbon growth plans and actions aimed at yielding a significant deviation of carbon dioxide emission compared to “business as usual” scenarios and the recommendations made by the IPCC.

2. Full transparency of commitments taken by developed countries and of the actions adopted by developing countries.

3. The adoption of a fast start fund of $10 Billion per year covering the next 3 years, 2010, 2011, 2012. It will be dedicated to adaption and mitigation actions including the fight against deforestation.

4. A strong commitment on long term public financing based on developing countries’ needs beyond 2012.

5. The establishment of a World Environment Organization that will ensure the environment’s sustainable development and the fight against climate change.

The Philippines is a signatory and have ratified both the

United Nations Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto

Protocol

•Bio-Fuels Programs

•Ethanol

•Jethropa (Initial 375,000 Hectares

Allocated for Production)

•CoCo-Diesel

•Compressed Natural Gas

Signed Memorandum of

Understanding, with

Chinese investor

R. A NO. 9637 – BIOFUEL ACT

MANDATORY MIXING IN THE FOLLOWING AMOUNT:

• 1% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 5% ETHANOL IN

GASOLINE FOR THE FIRST 4 YEARS AND IT WILL BE

INCREASED TO:

• 2% BIODIESEL IN PETRODIESEL AND 1O% ETHANOL IN

GASOLINE AFTER 4 YEARS.

CAMPAIGN AGAINST VIOLATORS OF ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS

• CAMPAIGN VS. SMOKE BELCHERS: 28,517 VEHICLES TESTED IN EDSA

(2007):

a. 6,058 VEHICLES OR 21% PASSED

b. 22,459 VEHICLES OR 79% FAILED

• CAMPAIGN VS. POLLUTING INDUSTRIES:

a. 6,690 INSPECTIONS/SAMPLING CONDUCTED:

b. 532 NOTICES OF VIOLATION ISSUED

PUBLIC UTILITY DRIVERS ASSISTED IN ACQUIRING

NEW/CLEANER ENGINES AND VEHICLES

WASTE MANAGEMENT: 1,080 OPENDUMPSITES NATIONWIDE:

• ASSISTING LGU’S IN

WASTE PROPER

MANAGEMENT

• IDENTIFIED366

POTENTIAL SANITARY

LANDFILL NATIONWIDE

• SHIFT IN ENERGY MIX FROM FOSSIL FUELS (OIL AND COAL)

TO RENEWABLE SOURCES (WATER, WIND, NATURAL GAS,

GEOTHERMAL)

• PRESENT MIX: FOSSIL FUELS- 58.4% AND RENEWABLE

SOURCES- 41.6%

• TARGET: FOSSIL FUELS – 49.2% AND RENEWABLE

SOURCES- 50.8% BY 2014.

• 8 Project from Philippines Accepted by U.N. and Qualified as

CDM Projects. Will Prevent Emission of About 253,919 tons of

carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Most are waste to Energy

Projects.

• Philippines Ranks 8th in the World in terms of Number of CDM

Projects Accepted by U.N.

• 32 CDM Project submitted to DENR, these are waste to

energy, renewable energy (wind, geothermal and hydro)

Cogeneration and Composting Project

• Reforested 85,235 Hectares in 2006

• Planted 845,656 Seedlings during

one-day Launching of Green

Philippines Highways

• More Ambitious Target starting 2007

a. Generate 20 Million Seedlings

b. Implement Green Philippines

Program

YOU CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE

• MINIMIZE/DISPENSE WITH ACTIVITIES THAT USE GREENHOUSE GASSES (E.G., CONSERVE USE OF ELECTRICITY)

• MORE EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PROCESS FOR BUSINESS USING FUELS. GOOD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND GOOD FOR PROFITS.

• DEVELOP CDM PROJECTS FOR CARBON TRADING

• LIMIT USE OF CAR AND ENSURE GOOD RUNNING CONDITION.

• JOIN THE GREEN PHILIPPINES PROGRAM.

• USE ALTERNATIVE FUELS(BIODIESEL,BIOMASS,ETC.)

What can we do

about Climate

Change?

“We can then be sure that we can

bequeath to our children our EARTH in

much better shape than when we

inherited it”

“Let it be known that this is our only

EARTH”

“It is our future and our children’s

future”

“IT IS OUR CHOICE”