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DRIVERS IN THE ANDESby DE BIEVRE, Bert; SARAVIA, Miguel; ACOSTA, Luis,
Relevant conditionsVery high mountains with a lot of people
in themExtremely variable biophysical
conditionsMountain rivers with limited regulation
capacityWater demand at high altitudesTraditional knowledge and technologies
to manage natural resources
Important driversDrastic increase in urban populationFree trade agreements boost
agroindustry for exportLand degradation: loss of regulation
capacity in mountain catchments(deforestation, minning, overgrazing)Climate change: vertical altitudinal
moves certain, everything else very uncertain
Challenges and OpportunitiesThe responses for water supply and agriculture
planning are recently being build from a watersheadapproach.The response to land degradation consider the
conservation of critycal ecosystems and territorial planning. In lower areas of the basins: little responseFor Climate Change adaptation, nothing new has to be
created: integrated water resources management, integrated catchment management, typically reforestation with low positive hydrological impact or even negative impactFrom Payment for Environmental Services to Benefits
Sharing MechanismsEfforts to update legislation and institutional frameworkIn absence of legal framework, municipalities stablishpartnerships to management catchment
Proyecto Cerro Negro
Proyecto Maqui Maqui
Proyecto La Quinua
Proyecto Carachugo
Proyecto Yanacocha Norte
Proyecto Yanacocha Sur
Cajamarca
#
Ubicaci n antiguaLaguna Yanacocha
Coordenadas Proyecci n U TMDatum : Psad 56
LAGUNA YANACOCHA
ANTES DE LAS OPERACIONES MINERAS (1992)
UBICACI N (Composit 1999)
AHORA (2006)
N
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Joint Limpopo River Basin Study – Scoping Phase Final Report – Main Report January 2010 Page 5 (77)
2.2 Topography and climate
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Figure 2.3 Topography of the Limpopo River basin
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Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007
1.2. Human settlements and population
The ecosystems of the Limpopo Basin support an estimated 5,200 human settlements. Table 1 shows that 49% and 45% of these settlements are respectively in Mozambique and in South Africa, while the rest are in Botswana and Zimbabwe.
Table 1: Number and distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin per country, including Total Population
Country No. of settlements Distribution of settlements (%)
Total Population (in million)
Mozambique 2541 49 1.3
South Africa 2355 45 10.7
Botswana 198 4 1.0
Zimbabwe 100 2 1.0
Total 5194 100 14.0
Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm; and UNDP (2003)
Figure 4 shows the geographical distribution patterns of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin. It can be observed that, firstly, all settlements are close to the river valleys, indicating the influence of the aridity in the Basin which encourages people to settle close to the stream banks. Lastly, human settlements are much denser in Mozambique and South Africa compared with Botswana and Zimbabwe.
Figure 4: Geographical distribution of human settlements in the Limpopo River Basin
Data source: http://earth-info.nga.mil/gns/html/namefiles.htm
!5
$0
$100000000
$200000000
$300000000
$400000000
$500000000
$600000000
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
South Africa Livestock Products: Imports
SADC World-SADC
Limpopo Basin Strategic Plan for Reducing Vulnerability to Floods and Droughts. UN-HABITAT/UNEP, July 2007
Figure 6: Changes in average population density in the Limpopo Basin from 1960 to 2000
Data source: http://www.na.unep.net/datasets/datalist.php3 (UNEP)
The Limpopo River Basin has a strong diversity of rural versus urban population. For example, for two countries (Botswana and South Africa) the capital cities and some of the largest urban population centres reside within the basin boundaries (e.g. Gaborone, Francistown, Pretoria, Polokwane, Thohoyandou, and Witbank). Not reflected in the Basin population figures are other large urban centres – Johannesburg, Maputo, and Bulawayo, – which are located on the fringes of the Limpopo Basin and influence, or are influenced by, socio-economic events and activities within the Basin. Aside from these urban centres the Limpopo Basin is predominantly rural, i.e. approximately 60% of the Basin population lives in rural areas (CGIAR, 2003).
1.3. Rainfall and runoff characteristics
The endowment of the Limpopo basin with high levels of biodiversity, as well as a large number of inhabitants who depend on it, is exposed to highly variable rainfall and runoff conditions which typically occur in the form of droughts and floods. The high variability in rainfall means that the climatic conditions are difficult to predict, yet floods and droughts are a direct threat to a large proportion of the 14 million human inhabitants in the basin, as well as to the diverse ecosystems.
! Rainfall characteristics
Figure 7 illustrates typical variations of rainfall from the annual mean of 334 mm at Beitbridge from 1934 to 1984. Specifically, it is observed that in the 60 years between 1934 and 1984, only 25 years (i.e., 41 % of the years) had above normal rainfall, while 35 years (i.e, 59 % of the years) had below normal rainfall. There is also high variability both among years with above normal rainfall and among years with below normal rainfall. This indicates the high likelihood of either floods or droughts in the Limpopo basin. However, the picture becomes complete when looking at the related flow regime of the Limpopo, which is also characterised by high variability (Figure 8).
!7
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Drivers of change in the Blue Nile Basinby Matthew McCartney and Tilahun Amede
Demographic/Societal
Population growth in Ethiopia is 3.2% per year
Locally:More mouths to feed Increased fragmentation of land Expansion to increasingly marginal landMore competition for scarce water and other natural resources Impedes the economic well being of households
Nationally:Agricultural land is overcrowded and over-cultivated Health infrastructure is not keeping pace with pop. growth Energy demand is growing rapidlyEconomic and social indicators are declining
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Population (millions)
Ethiopia Population
Forecast
Currentpopulation 90 million
Economic/Trade (Globalization)
Ethiopia is increasingly interlinked to the rest of the World
Locally:Increased demand for agricultural products Employment opportunities Disproportionately benefits those with assets Benefits greatest in areas with infrastructure/communications Risk of increased marginalization of the poor
Nationally:Greater opportunity for economic growth Ethiopia commodity exchange facilitates food trade and agricultural investment Niche overseas markets (e.g. for teff/coffee/flowers) Higher risks associated with fluctuations in global financial systemsRisk of domestic markets being flooded with world market commoditiesForeign Direct Investment in land (and water)
Area (ha) Projects
Domestic 149,148 2,750
Foreign 1,444,308 1,001
Comparison of foreign & domestic ag investment in Oromia State
Environment/Climate Change
Increased variability in climate increases vulnerability of the poor
Locally:Farmers choices more difficultIncreased vulnerability Possible need to change livelihood strategies (e.g. croppers to livestock)
Nationally:Considerable uncertainty about the impacts of CCArea suitable for rainfed agriculture may decline Adaptation strategies are essential Investment in water infrastructure (e.g. storage) critical
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Average annual irrigation
Requirment (m
3ha-‐1)
Basin average irrigation requirement
1983-‐2012: 8,2442021-‐2050: 8,4912071-‐2100: 9,726
Simulated change in irrigation water requirement in the Blue Nile Basin under a mid-‐range climate scenario (A1B) (1983-‐2100)
Technological Innovations
The Information and communications revolution in Africa boosts growth
Locally:Increasing access to telecommunications Better informed farmers are able to make better choices Need to ensure information tailored to farmers needs
Nationally:Voice services expanding rapidly but internet more slowly In Ethiopia on ly one provider so no competition and prices still relatively high
Political/Institutional/Legal
Since 1988, gradual shift from controlled to more market-‐oriented economy
Locally:Considerable changes in prices of foods and consumer goods Increased opportunities for off-farm activities Land ownership vested entirely in the state; security of tenure unclearUptake of technologies and practices affected by tenure
Nationally:Ethiopian state is dominating force in defining access, distribution and tenure of landInternal market liberalization and devaluation of currency10 years of negotiation have, so far, failed to deliver a comprehensive agreement on managing Nile water (Egypt and Sudan yet to sign Nile pact) Unilateral development of upstream water resources (e.g. Renaissance Dam) Considerable uncertainty about future political direction
Current situation
In Ethiopia, 35 million people (40% of population) live in acute poverty and 5-‐6 million need food support annually
Locally:Rural poor are marginalized small holdersReliant on rainfed agriculture Short of land (farm size, quality and security of access)Lack access to reliable water supply (and other inputs)Low levels of agricultural productivityExtremely vulnerable to hydrological variability
Nationally:Land degradation is excessive (1.9 Bt topsoil lost annually) Low levels of hydraulic infrastructureLow levels of irrigation (640 ha out of potential > 5 million)Hydrological variability costs economy 1/3 growth
But significant water resources (125 Bm3 = 1,400 m3 per capita) available to contribute to development
10%
85%
5%
Voice coverage gaps in Ethiopia
Existing coverage Efficient market gap Coverage gap
Water and agriculture are central to economic development and poverty alleviation in Ethiopia. Drivers of change pose great challenges as well as substantial opportunities for dynamic and sustained progress.
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