GHG Emission Savings from Projects

Matthew Brander, Ecometrica

1. Why quantify emission savings from community projects?

2. How to measure project savings.

3. A warning about emission savings factors.

4. The importance of project lifetimes – rather than just annual savings.

5. Getting the right balance between data quality and other commitments

6. Linking reported carbon savings from communities to regional or national carbon accounts.

7. Uncertainty about the stickiness/lifetime of behaviour change

Overview of presentation:

1. Helps in project design, i.e. allows efforts to be focused where the biggest emission reductions can be achieved, and helps to identify (and then address) project activities which increase emissions.

2. Getting feedback on actual savings achieved can motivate the community.

3. Provides information to funders on the impact of the project.

4. Could (possibly) feed into wider assessments for regional/national mitigation planning.

Why quantify emission reductions:

Calculating Project Emissions Savings

Emissions (tCO2 e)

Years

Baseline scenario

Project scenario

Carbon savings

• The difference between the baseline and project scenarios• Baseline emissions – project emissions = emissions saving

A warning about emission saving factors:

A baseline is implied – and it may not be obvious what this assumed baseline is!

Example:

• Emissions savings from loft insulation (730 kgCO2e saving per year from loft insulation)

1. “Lifetime” is the total length of time that an “action” or “intervention” causes a change from what would have happened in the baseline.

2. E.g. The lifetime of a biomass boiler is 15 to 20 years, loft insulation is 30 to 40 years, pledged behaviour change is ? years.

3. Looking at the lifetime of an intervention is necessary to quantify the total savings achieved (some measures may have low annual savings but last for a long time, others have higher annual savings but only last a short time).

The importance of intervention lifetimes:

Getting the right balance between measurement and implementation

1. Weigh up the time required for better measurement and the value of increased accuracy.

2. Sometimes better quality data doesn’t take longer to collect.

3. Mix and match primary and secondary data

1. Distinction between emission inventories (e.g. national inventories) and quantified reductions (e.g. for climate change mitigation planning).

2. Many community project savings will be captured by other schemes, e.g. FIT, RHI, CERT or EST reporting – but lots won’t.

Possibility of double-counting.

3. Some reductions will occur outside Scotland – so will reduce someone else’s production-based national inventory emissions (but will reduce Scotland’s consumption based inventory)

Linking community reporting to regional or national reporting:

How long does behaviour change last for?

Uncertainty about stickiness/ lifetime of behaviour change:

Emissions (tCO2 e)

Years

Baseline scenario

Project scenario

Carbon savings

1. Analogy: which bicycle would you choose:

• Bicycle A: guaranteed to last for between 15 and 20 years• Bicycle B: unknown how long it will last for

2. We need good longitudinal studies on how long behaviour change lasts for – to estimate the carbon savings from behaviour change projects.

Uncertainty about stickiness/ lifetime of behaviour change: