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Foresight & Innovation

INNOPROM2011AdamGordon,M.S.,[email protected]

TamaraCarleton,PhDBillCockayne,PhDStanfordUniversity

Introduction

o Stanford Foresight & Innovation Group

o Strategic Foresight, Houston

o INSEAD

o Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight

o Forbes: “Management By Looking Ahead”

o South Africa – Innovation – Emerging Markets BRICSA

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Paul Saffo on academics vs. futurists…

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Foresight & Innovation at Stanford: Benefits of the Approach

o Acknowledge change, threats, opportunities of the future. Engage and stimulate thinking about the future.

o Connects long-term perspectives with innovation actions today. Overcome the gap between big idea and on-the-ground execution

o Built to work in the style of today’s collaborative, team-based approach to projects in the workplace

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Seeing Future Opportunities (Threats)

That look of surprise

Getting Ahead of Change

Avoiding Surprises

Renewing Success (Innovation)

Foresight Tools Focused on Action

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Three Phases to Build Foresight

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Perspective Opportunity Solution

Phase I: Perspective

Develop a broad and historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.

o What is the bigger context for the sector/industry you are interested in? o What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be

identified as drivers of today's reality? o When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in

timing and adoption exist today?

© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton For Workshop Participants Only 11


Phase II: Opportunity

Develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrows innovations.

o What themes are emerging that might shape or influence possible opportunities in the future?

o Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future changes?

o What might you expect from future users and customers?



Phase III: Solution

Define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Prototype new solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.

o How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to tomorrow's future innovation?

o Looking at what you've learned, how long does each step take along the various paths?

o What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?



Phase I: Perspective

Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones


Context Mapping is a mapping technique for capturing emergent conversation themes in complex problems to show integrated context.

Progression Curves are a graphical representation that explains the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.

Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how timing affects potential future events.

The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look forward.

© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton 15 For Workshop Participants Only


Progression Curves Progression Curves explain the progression of changes in terms of technological, social, and related filters.


Common Technology & Social Curves


Janus Cones Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in time to identify the timing of historical events and how these timings affect potential future events.


The Development of Silicon Valley


2000 1990 1980 1970 Today

2009: “During a recession, Silicon Valley doesn’t curl up into a fetal position and pout. It continues to take chances, throwing sparks at kindling, knowing that something will catch fire. It’s the U.S. economy’s secret weapon.” "– Portfolio, 2/09

1960 1950

1992: TiE (The Indus Entrepre-neurs) founded 1978: Silicon

Valley Manufacturing Group founded

1952: IBM opened its San Jose R&D office

1946: Stanford Research Institute (SRI) founded

1990: San Jose airport expanded Terminal A

2000: SFO opened new international terminal

1968: Engelbart demo

1939: HP founded

1968: Intel founded

1976: Apple founded

1984: NUMMI plant opened

1958: Fairchild founded

1987: SEMANTECH founded

1994: Netscape, Yahoo! founded

1992: Apple closes Fremont

plant

1951: Stanford Industrial Park established (Varian Associates, GE, and Kodak sign first leases)

1958: NASA set ups research facility

2008: 1/3 of Stanford MBA students (and cases) are international

1957: Stanford MBA students start the Intern’l Business Club

1982: Silicon Valley Bank founded

2005: Sequoia Capital launched first China fund

2001: Accel Partners launched first EU fund

1972: Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers founded

1964: UC Berkeley starts its study abroad program

1958: Stanford starts its study abroad program

1958: “[Sputnik] was a wakeup call, and America answered it.” – John Kao in Innovation Nation, 2008


Development of Key Industries in S.Valley


Phase II: Opportunity

Demographics Future Users Futuretelling


Demographics is a research method to identify and track population changes within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.

Future Users explores the potential future of a chosen demographic through the comparative analysis between similar groups over time.

Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular user need as a scene from the future. This is active storytelling at its best.

The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrow’s innovations.


Demographics in 20 Years (2028)


U.S.

China

India

Demographics is a research method to identify and track population growth within a specific group over time in order to understand impending changes on the workforce, life stages, future markets, and other variables.

Future Users Future Users explores the potential future of a customer demographic through the comparison of changes to similar groups over time.


Past Today Tomorrow

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Jimmie@31

Tommie@21

Tommie@31

Jimmie@21

Tommie@11

© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton

Describing a future user based on a real person today

A future persona describes a sample user (or customer segment) you want to target, based on current real evidence of similar target today

o Demographics – age, household income, religion, etc. o Interests – family details, hobbies, etc. o Aspirations – career goals, personal dreams, etc. o Beliefs – attitudes, values, etc. o Behaviors – shopping habits, technology usage, etc. o Other details – influencers, segment category, etc.


Comparing Managers in India


1996 2008 2020

Nikhil age 34

Siddhartha “Sid” age 34

Similarities

Both married and have children

Purchased apartment after marriage Commute using chauffeur-driven car

Domestic help takes care of sundry shopping, cleaning and cooking

Family owns a farmhouse

Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby malls

Differences

Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to "top position in father’s company

Nikhil lives separately, Sid lives with parents

Farmhouse is a novelty for Sid, "an ancestral land for Nikhil

Futuretelling Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a particular population need or possible scene from the future.


Phase III: Solution

White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups


White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.

Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

Paper mockups in three-dimensions (3D) are an advanced design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials. A specific iteration is the Dark Horse Prototype.

The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers, organization, and individual skills.


White Spots White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in the ‘white spots’, or empty areas.



Change Paths Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.


Change Paths


The Change Path to White Spots


With a future opportunity in mind, creating a set of data-driven narratives helps to explore the Change Paths toward possible solutions that are 2+ innovation cycles in the future.

Paper Mockups


Paper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method to prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and inexpensive materials.


Integration

Foresight Tools Focused on Action

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Janus Cones

Context Maps



Future Users

Demographics

Futuretelling



3D Mockups

Change Paths

White Spots


Taking Action Towards Future Innovation


Illustrative

Questions?

Stanford Foresight & Innovation Network

Foresight and Innovation Bill Cockayne, Tamara Carleton

http://foresight.stanford.edu 424 Panama Mall Stanford

University Stanford, California 94305

Adam Gordon [email protected]

+44 790 6054848