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Results from the 2011 Future of Open Source Survey, presented at the Open Source Business Conference in San Francisco, CA.
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Future of Open Source
5TH Annual Leadership Keynote Michael Skok
The Panel
2
Jim Whitehurst President & CEO
Mike Olson CEO
Michael Skok General Partner
Tom Erickson CEO
Adrian Kunzle Managing Director
@entrecapitalist
Welcome!
3
Industry Investment
Direction Impact
Collaborators
4
5
Who we heard from. (you!)
Survey Response
6
455
4 6 0 0 Survey Respondents
7
Vendors Non-Vendors
%
Survey Respondent’s Titles
8
Agenda
9
Industry Impact
Direction Investment
Is a Turbulent Economy Good or Bad for Open Source?
10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Good Bad
2009 2010 2011
What Makes OSS Attractive?
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Lower costs
Freedom from VENDOR Lock-in
Access to code libraries
Lower costs
Superior security
Freedom from VENDOR lock-in
Lower costs
Freedom from VENDOR lock-in
Rapid pace of innovation
2008 2009 2010 2011
Freedom from VENDOR lock-in
Lower costs
Flexibility
18%
15%
15% 15%
14%
13%
7% 3%
Tipping Point – What’s Driving Adoption?
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Vendor Lock-in
Economic Downturn
Public Sector Adoption
Private Sector Adoption
OSS Experience
Quality
Other Mobility
Top 5 Barriers to OSS Selection
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Lack of internal technical skills
Unfamiliarity with open source solutions
Lack of formal commercial vendor support
126
122
98
responses
84
65
Legal concerns about licensing
Does not conform to internal policies
Agenda
14
Industry Investment
Direction Impact
What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?
Mobile
OS Database MOST
What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?
3,800 new mobile projects in 2010
94% speficied, target Apple iOS or Android
MOST = Mobile
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
New Mobile OSS Projects
Thanks to our collaborator Black Duck
What Sectors will be Disrupted by OSS Over the Next 5 Years?
“Code can be commoditized more easily than trained people, ingrained business processes and mission critical data”
Michael Skok
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LEAST ERP/CRM
Office Productivity
Business Intelligence
How is The Use of OSS Components Impacting the Manageability of Applications?
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More
Less
None
26%
20%
14%
15%
17%
8%
Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today
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Custom Development
Support Subscriptions
Ad-hoc Support
“Closed-source” Licensing
Value-add Subscriptions
Other
26%
20%
14%
15%
17%
8%
Top Vendor Revenue Sources Today, and 2 years out…
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Custom Development
Support Subscriptions
Ad-hoc Support
“Closed-source” Licensing
Value-add Subscriptions
Other
17%
25%
7% 20%
18%
9% 4%
+ 2 Years
Advertisements
What Licensing Strategy do you use?
21
(vendor only question)
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Res
pons
es
For definitions refer to
Impact on OSS Vendors?
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SaaS
Private Cloud
Public Cloud
App Stores
Mobile Devices
Impact on OSS Vendors – Cloudy…
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
40
80
120
160
200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
New OSS Cloud Projects Cumulative Projects *Projects specifically referencing cloud. Many OSS projects are suitable for cloud but don’t specify it.
Thanks to our Collaborator Black Duck
Cool OSS Projects mentioned…
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2009
Up & Coming OSS Companies
25
2010 2011
22% 72%
2.7%
24%
OSS Investment – by the numbers
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2009
Dollars Invested
Deals Completed
Ave Deal Size
Seed, Series A
$375M 73 $5.7M $65M
$466M
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$7.0M $112M
96
67 62
75
42
94 89 85
OSS Deployed in Your Organization
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75%-100% 50%-75%
25% -50%
0%- 25%
Percentage of OSS is Deployed
Res
pons
es
Today In 5 Years
IN 5 YEARS: What % of Software Purchases Will be OSS?
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2015
2014
50% or more on OSS
2016
2013
Wrap-up: The Open Source Path
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OSS in the Mainstream…
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Private Sector Adoption
Lower Costs
Growing Investments
Avoid Vendor Lock-In
Public Sector Adoption
… But Not Yet Mature!
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Internal technical skills
Unfamiliarity
Vendor support
Watch for Path Traps
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Innovation vs. bloat
Maintenance costs
DevOps
Opportunities…
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OSS can: • Innovate • Lead
A big thank you from North Bridge to…
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Jim Whitehurst President & CEO
Mike Olson CEO
Michael Skok General Partner
Tom Erickson CEO
Adrian Kunzle Managing Director
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FutureOpensource.net
