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Climate Change ResearchFP7 activities in the Environment (including climate change) theme

European CommissionDG Research & Innovation

Environment Directorate

Andrea TILCHEHead of the Unit « Climate change and natural hazards »

202/05/23

FP7 – Indicative breakdown (€ million)

FP7 – structure and budget

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FP7 research climate change-related priorities

● Understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impacts

● Providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, costs and benefits of different policy options for mitigation and adaptation

● Improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate-friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future

● Focused on four main thematic areas: Environment (total budget € 1.89 billion) Energy (total budget € 2.35 billion) Transport (total budget € 4.16 billion) Space and Global Monitoring for Environment and

Security (GMES) (total budget € 1.43 billion)

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ENVIRONMENT(including climate change)

● Climate change research is carried out under all its headings:

Climate change, pollution and risks From the development of the knowledge base, to modelling and

projections, to the assessment of vulnerabilities-impacts and costs, to adaptation and mitigation strategies

Sustainable Management of Resources In particular on the effects of climate change on biodiversity,

terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, seas and oceans Environmental Technologies

Low carbon technologies, C-removal technologies, resource efficiency

Earth observation and assessment tools for sustainable development

Climate-related observing systems, data management

● About 100 projects – more than 500 M€ funding on climate change research in the first 5 FP7 calls

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● Climate processes and modelling● Role of oceans● Carbon and nitrogen cycles● Arctic research● Atmosphere pollution and processes● Water resources● Impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation● Economics of climate change and mitigation pathways

Areas of research

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Modelling activities in FP7• Projects on the development of models and the

provision of climate predictions• Research on basic climate processes (e.g. cloud

physics, ocean/atmosphere interactions, climate systems like El Niño/La Niña, etc.)

Areas of research Climate processes and modelling

● PALAEOCLIMATOLOGY Past4Future: Climate dynamics and abrupt

changes – analysis of the palaeo-record

● MODELLING and PROJECTIONS COMBINE: New components in Earth

System modelling EUCLIPSE: Process-oriented evaluation of

Earth System Models EMBRACE: Earth system model bias

reduction

● TOWARDS CLIMATE SERVICES CLIM-RUN: Provision of local scale

climate information (focus on the Mediterranean)

ECLISE: Provision of local scale climate information

702/05/23

Areas of research Climate processes and modelling

COMBINE - overall aimCOMBINE brings together leading European modelling centres to face the challenge of building the next generation of Earth System Models (ESMs), to advance the capabilities of climate prediction and projection. It follows previous European Commission large-scale projects, such as ENSEMBLES from FP6.

First achievements● Implementation and testing of land use changes and wildfire impacts,

processes for the terrestrial and oceanic nitrogen cycles, and processes related to methane emissions from permafrost and wetland changes.

● Evaluations of cloud-radiation and aerosol-cloud effects and land use impacts on tropospheric chemistry.

● Incorporation of tropical and polar stratospheric dynamical variability in ESMs.

● Improved understanding of processes regulating ice-sheet surface energy and mass balances; increased realism of the representation of surface snow processes in both ice-sheet and sea-ice models.

● A new ocean re-analysis has been conducted using up-to-date quality-controlled ocean observation data sets and atmospheric forcing fluxes, with significant progress in sea-ice assimilation.

Comprehensive Modelling of the Earth System for

Better Climate Prediction and Projection

802/05/23

● Studying the different impacts by climate change on the marine environment(eg. CLAMER, THOR, Ice2sea, ATP projects)

Areas of research Role of

oceans

CLAMER’s Achievements• Inventory and review of over 60 EU-funded projects, definition of gaps and challenges for next marine research• filling the gap between science, policy and general public with better communication strategies (websites, blogs, documentaries, public events)• EU-wide survey: public is concerned with climate change impacts on marine environment, most people believe climate change is at least partly caused by humans. Public supports more mitigation measures than adaptation, and also EU and national policies to make coastal and marine environments more resilient

902/05/23

● Ocean acidification

Areas of research Role of

oceans

EPOCA - European Project on OCean AcidificationAchievements• ocean acidification can be measured • ocean acidity has increased by 30% in the past 200 years and could increase of at least another 100% by 2100• even if ocean acidification is also a natural event, the current speed at which the ocean is acidifying today is 10 times faster than ever in the last 65 million years• using 24 years of sea data in the Iceland Sea, surface water acidification in Arctic waters resulted 50% faster than in subtropical regions• 10% of Arctic surface waters will become corrosive to some forms of calcium carbonate in less than 10 years and half will become corrosive by mid-century

MedSeA – Mediterranean Sea Acidification in a changing climate Overall aim • Identify where the impacts of acidification on Mediterranean waters will be more significant• Generate new observational and experimental data on Mediterranean organism and ecosystem• Provide best estimates and related uncertainties of future changes in Mediterranean Sea• Combine scientific and socio-economic analyses

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Achievements• Quantify the annual to decadal variability

of CO2, N2O and CH4 budgets of terrestrial ecosystems in Europe

• Understand natural and anthropogenic drivers (climate, nitrogen deposition, land use, management) and pressures (global markets, European climate and land use policies) for European forest, grassland, cropland and peatland ecosystems

Why does it matter?

● Assess, in economic, societal and environmental terms, the impact of possible post-2012 policies on future greenhouse gas sources/sinks in Europe

Achievements

• Determine the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of human-produced carbon dioxide

• Investigate how large this uptake rate has been in the past, how it is changing at present, and how it will evolve in the future.

• Assess the vulnerability of the Atlantic ocean to future climate as major carbon sink

Why does it matter?

● Assess the expected consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations and to guide the management of CO2 emission reductions.

Areas of research Carbon and nitrogen

cycles

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Achievements

● Established a comprehensive new European Nitrogen Budget

● Measured costs and benefits of Nitrogen impacts on climate, ecosystems and health

● Policy recommendations to reduce negative Nitrogen impacts on earth

● Findings are directly transferred to relevant UN processes/conventions

● Key driver of the European Nitrogen Assessment which provided, for the first time, a Europe-wide assessment of the impact of nitrogen on ecosystems

Why does it matter?

● Nitrogen is crucial for any life of earth. Its increasing use in fertilisers over the last 100 years has boosted agricultural productivity and sustained a growing population. But at the same time it has mostly negative side effects on human health, ecosystems and climate.

NITROEUROPEReactive Nitrogen – Too much of a good

thing

Areas of research Carbon and nitrogen

cycles

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• Preservation of the Arctic in unison with its peoples through a better understanding of its natural and human environment.

• Key region in the global climate system, undergoing massive and rapid environmental change: Surface temperatures warming twice as fast as the global average, ice thinning faster than anticipated by climate models, sea-ice coverage near record lows since summer 2011.

Areas of research Arctic research

Ice2sea overall aimIce2sea is specifically focussed on the contribution to sea-level rise that will arise from loss of continental glaciers and ice sheets and which give rise to the largest part of the uncertainty in the projections.

First achievementsICE2SEA has proved that the most important factor concerning melting ice-sheets is not the air above them but the warmer oceans into which they flow.

RECONCILE overall aimIn the long run, climate change may radically alter the temperature, circulation patterns and chemical composition in the stratosphere. To realistically predict the response of the ozone layer to these changes and the future evolution of Arctic ozone, a complete representation of all relevant processes is necessary. RECONCILE sets out to reach full quantitative understanding of Arctic stratospheric ozone loss. First achievements RECONCILE played a key role in the recent discovery related to the ozone depletion over the Arctic .

1302/05/23

• Aerosols and their role on air pollution and climate (EUCAARI, PEGASOS)

• Environmental impacts of megacities (CITYZEN, MEGAPOLI)

• Effects on European Ecosystems (ECLAIR)• Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived

Pollutants (ECLIPSE)• The chemistry of the ozone depletion (RECONCILE)

Areas of research Atmosphere pollution

and processes

PEGASOS - Overall aim

To enhance our understanding of the interactions of climate and atmospheric chemistry in the past, present and future.

• Better estimates of air pollution in Europe and its impact on climate.• Support to the EC/Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and Air Quality

regulation.• Better quantification of regional and global links between air pollution and

climate change to underpin mitigation options and other policy initiatives.

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Areas of research Water resources

● CC impacts on hydrological cycle (ACQWA)● CC impacts on water and security

(CLIMB / WASSERMed / CLICO)● CC impacts on the Mediterranean

(CLIMB / WASSERMed / CLICO)● Climate-dependent droughts (XEROCHORE

/ DEWFORA)CLIMB / WASSERMed / CLICO: the CLIWASEC

(Climate-Water-Security) Cluster

Overall aim

• Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins: reducing uncertainty and quantifying risk through an integrated monitoring and modelling system (CLIMB)

• Water availability and security in Southern Europe and the Mediterranean (WASSERMed)

• Climate change, hydro-conflicts and human resources (CLICO)

ACQWA - Assessing climate impacts on the quantiy and quality of water

Overall aim

• To estimate the future changes in order to prepare the way for appropriate adaptation strategies and improved water governance

• Integrated modelling approach to enable accurate projections of changes in the seasonality and quantity of runoff in the river basins under scrutiny in the ACQWA project

• Identification of key economic impacts and assessment of the possible rivalries between economic actors

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● Building of a comprehensive knowledge base to identify appropriate adaptation options, to assess their full costs and to support the development of medium and long-term adaptation strategies at national, regional and local scales

Areas of research Impacts, vulnerabilities and

adaptation

ClimSave – Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Overall aim

● To develop a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that will allow stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors

● The tool will also enable stakeholders to explore adaptation strategies for reducing climate change vulnerability, discovering where, when and under what circumstances such actions may help.

● It will highlight the cost-effectiveness and cross-sectoral benefits and conflicts of different adaptation options and enable uncertainties to be investigated to better inform the development of robust policy responses

RESPONSES - European responses to climate change: deep emissions reductions and mainstreaming of mitigation and adaptation

Overall aim

• Identify and assess integrated EU climate-change policy responses that achieve ambitious mitigation and environmental targets and, at the same time, reduce the Union’s vulnerability to inevitable climate-change impacts.

• A new set of global low emissions scenarios (400-450 ppm CO2-equivalent) will be developed, considering the EU 2°C objective

1602/05/23

Contribute to the development of effective mitigation measures to climate change and its impacts through:

• Analysis of different mitigation pathways and associated emissions reduction scenarios

• Improved knowledge base for assessment of costs, benefits and consequences of specific mitigation policies and different policy mix, including economic instruments

• Better science/policy interface (development of modelling tools, scenario-based decision support tools, governance of climate change policy)

Areas of research Economics of climate change and mitigation pathways

It will focus on four central areas:• The role of uncertainty about the climate response to anthropogenic forcing on

the remaining carbon budget for supplying societies around the globe with energy,

• the role of technology availability, innovation and myopia in the energy sector,• the role of policy imperfections like limited regional or sectoral participation in

climate policy regimes, and• the implications for decarbonisation scenarios and policies for Europe.

Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost

Estimates

AMPERE- Overall aim:Use a sizable ensemble of state-of-the-art energy-economy and integrated assessment models to analyse mitigation pathways and associated mitigation costs in a series of multi-model inter-comparisons.

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FP7 climate change research Participation of Israel

Project Acronym Project TitleProject Total Cost

Project EC Contribution Participant Legal Name Participant

Total Cost

Participant EC

Contribution

FORCE

Future of Reefs in a Changing Environment (FORCE): An ecosystem approach to managing Caribbean coral reefs in the face of climate change

8.581.206 6.474.632 BAR ILAN UNIVERSITY 329.024 246.768

MEDSEA MEDiterranean Sea Acidification in a changing climate 4.825.050 3.490.169 BAR ILAN UNIVERSITY 253.760 191.520

ACCENT-PLUSAtmospheric Composition Change: the European Network-Policy Support and Science

1.372.728 998.352 WEIZMANN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE 85.368 50.440

PEGASOS Pan-European Gas-AeroSol-climate interaction Study 9.809.259 6.999.992 WEIZMANN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE 86.598 64.949

CIRCLE-2Climate Impact Research & Response Coordination for a Larger Europe - 2nd Generation ERA-Net -Science meets Policy

2.271.877 1.999.331 Ministry of Environmental Protection 44.220 39.430

          798.970 593.106

only 0,12% of climate change project’s budget!

1802/05/23

ENVIRONMENTincluding climate change

Main Features of WP2012 Calls Key drivers: • Europe 2020 Strategy and its Flagship Initiatives on

Innovation Union and Resource EfficiencyNovelties:• Emphasis on innovation • Challenge-driven approach – 5 main challenges• More focused priorities and fewer and less prescriptive topics

(bottom –up approach)• More flexibility and simplified Work Programme• Wider participation of European industry and SMES (2 stages

submission)

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WP2012 Calls Challenge 6.1

Coping with climate change Overall aim

To create a more effective interface between climate change knowledge, social and economic systems and the policy-making process

In particular, the call explored:• The key knowledge gaps in climate science that may allow

reliable seasonal-to-decadal predictions, paving the way to the future development of climate services

• The economic opportunities the costs and the impacts associated to the development of a low carbon, resource efficient and climate resilient society and economy

• The opportunities, risks, feasibility and policy implications of geo-engineering

Indicative budget: 55 M€

2002/05/23

Work Programme 2013

● In the starting phase of strategy-setting● Inputs from stakeholders● Last call of FP7● Need to bridge with Horizon 2020 (2014-2020)

● Same structure as for the 2012 Call● More budget than in previous calls (~320 M€)● Hot subjects?

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Horizon 2020 (2014-2020)● An overall proposed budget of 80 billion €

● A single framework merging research and innovation (FP, CIP, EIT)

● A simple structure based on three pillars: Excellent science base Industrial leadership & competitive frameworks Tackling societal challenges (also Climate change)

● Simplification: a common toolkit of funding schemes and a single cost model

● Increased use of innovative financial instruments

● Currently discussed inside the Commission, expected for adoption on 30 November 2011

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Horizon 2020 Objectives and structure

Industrial Leadership and Competitive Frameworks

Leadership in enabling and industrial technologies (ICT, nano, materials, bio, manufacturing, space)

Access to risk finance Innovation in SMEs

Excellent Science Base European Research Council Future and Emerging Technologies Marie Curie actions on skills, training and career development Research infrastructures

Shared objectives and principlesCommon rules, toolkit of funding schemes

Supporting the objectives:European Institute for Innovation and

TechnologyJoint Research Centre

Europe 2020 priorities

European Research Area

Simplified access

International cooperation

Dissemination & knowledge transfer

Tackling Societal Challenges Health, demographic change and wellbeing Food security and the bio-based economy Secure, clean and efficient energy Smart, green and integrated transport Climate action & Resource Efficiency including Raw Materials Inclusive, innovative and secure societies

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Other new initiatives on Climate Change

● EIT (European Institute of Innovation and Technology): launched the Climate KIC Research Education for entrepreneurship Innovation and spin-off creation

● Joint Programming Initiative “Connecting climate knowledge for Europe” 12 member countries and 1 observer country up to now Objective to coordinate national research activities and to

establish joint activities Focus on modelling for climate services and decision making

tools

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Thanks for your attention!

andrea.tilche@ec.europa.eu

2502/05/23

More Information

● European Research Portal: www.ec.europa.eu/research

● General information on the Seventh EU Research Framework Programmes:www.ec.europa.eu/research/fp7

● Specific information on research programmes and projects:www.cordis.europa.eu/fp7

● General information requests:www.ec.europa.eu/research/enquiries

● Research for the environment:

http://ec.europa.eu/research/environment/index_en.cfm