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Far Beyond Smartphones: Lessons From Disruptive Technology, Open collaboration, and Breakthrough Mobile products David Wood has spent more than 20 years envisioning, architecting, implementing, supporting, and avidly using smart mobile devices (devices that can also be called "personal electronic brains"): ten years with PDA manufacturer Psion PLC, and then ten more with smartphone operating system specialist Symbian Ltd. He was centrally involved in preparations and planning for the open source Symbian Foundation. Over that time, many lessons have emerged, highly relevant to the H+ mission to explore how humanity will be radically changed by technology in the near future: What factors cause both spurts and slowdowns in technology development? What enables new technology visions to "cross the chasm" towards mainstream adoption? Given the history of improvements in smart mobile devices over the last 20 years, what can we realistically expect in the next 20 years? How credible is the vision of mobile devices helping billions of people to collect data that can be used for science and advance human knowledge? To what extent can technological progress be foreseen, and to what extent is the process chaotic, risky, and even dangerous? David Wood spent ten years with PDA manufacturer Psion PLC, and then ten more with smartphone operating system specialist Symbian Ltd, where he was co-founder and executive vice president. His background includes: many years building and integrating UI system software and application frameworks in 16-bit and 32-bit versions of “EPOC” software (later named “Symbian OS”); growing and directing the technical consulting teams that worked with leading phone manufacturers to create the world’s first successful smartphones; and defining and running development programs to stimulate and nurture the fast-growing Symbian partner ecosystem. From the first half of 2008, he was involved in preparations and planning for the independent open source Symbian Foundation. He served on the Leadership Team of the Symbian Foundation as “Catalyst and Futurist” until October 2009. I continue these same roles from within Delta Wisdom. He has an MA in Mathematics from Cambridge University and an honorary doctorate in science from the University of Westminster. In September 2009 he was included in T3's list of "100 most influential people in technology": http://tech100.t3.com/list/80-61/.
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David WoodPrincipal, Delta Wisdom
H+UK meetings secretaryBlog: http://dw2blog.com
Twitter: @dw2
Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,
Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products
intelligence for profound change
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Q: How quickly can technology progress?
A: If we’re not careful,not quickly enough
We need to be aware ofdeep impediments to technological progress, as well as its deep drivers
In principle,we can solve these impediments...
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If we’re not quick enough
Environmental disaster
Economic disintegration
Extreme terrorism (WMD)
Individual alienation
Radically uncertain
future
Cut backsDisruption
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Convergence of computing & telecommsVision: 1998
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New functionality in smartphones• Colour screens• Cameras – and video recorders• Messaging: SMS, simple email, rich email• Web browsing: Google, Wikipedia, News...• Social networking: Facebook, Twitter, blogs...• Games – including multiplayer games• Maps and location-based services• Buying and selling (tickets, vouchers, cash)• What about the next 3, 5, 10 years?
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Progress accelerators Progress inhibitorsDecreasing price
Increasing reliability
Increasing stylishness
Increasing word of mouth recommendations
Increasing number of useful and/or entertaining mobile services
Increasing ecosystem maturity (virtuous cycle)
Unexpectedly hardtechnical problems
“Chicken-and-egg” coordination problems
Conflicting business models
Platform fragmentation
Poor usability design
Accelerating complexity
?
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Progress (Log)
Time
Core technology (potential)
?
?
Useful applications
Weak environment
Productive environment
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Expertise needed !
TechnologyEcosystem
design
Business models
System integration
Lean processes
Agile project management
User experience
Community engagement
Platform
MotivationExecution
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Turning expertise into action
Knowing DoingGap!
Leaders with a profound hands-on knowledge of the work domain
Bias for plain language & simple conceptsEncourage solutions rather than
inaction: Ask “how”, not just “why”
Ensure actions are completed(rather than being forgotten,or excuses being accepted)
Willing to “learn by doing”:avoid analysis paralysis
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Next generation handheld devices
devices that makeall users smarter:
IQ+=20
+5 yearsx10 raw capability
devices that make society smarter:
GDP+=20%
connectivity++awareness++
interactivity++intelligence++
The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today
?media, health, education, science, government...
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The mobile devices of the near future will be much more powerful and much more useful than even the best mobile devices of today
Next generation handheld devices
?media, health, education, science, government...
Individually targeted content
e-learning materials
Augmented realityDiscover local treasure
Cognitive enhancementTrusted advice, based on observing the user
Huge variety of different apps (“long tail”)
Apps much more numerous than songs
Devices much more numerous than people (50B - 1T...)
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David Wood, Delta WisdomTwitter: @dw2Blog: http://dw2blog.comBook: http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/Chapter 3:http://dw2blog.com/the-hplus-agenda/my-personal-journey/
Far Beyond Smartphones:Lessons From Disruptive Technology,
Open collaboration, andBreakthrough mobile products
Some further reading
