designing for the future

new again everything old is

httpwwwflickrcomphotosssoosay4128397609

ldquoit takes on average 20 years for a technology to make the transition from first articulation to maturity (defined as becoming a $1billion industry)hellipthe mouse for example took 30 years ldquo

ndash Bill Buxton Principle researcher Microsoft

Patent 3522664 November 1967

the humble fax machine(a technology that may finally have outlived its usefulness)

httpwwwflickrcomphotosmattjiggins4009310821

take for example

1843

Alexander Bain

The fax machine was first envisioned and patented in 1843 by Scotsman Alexander Bain

(image shown is of an 1850 iteration)

Image source Wikipedia

1843 1848

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

then improved on(and patented once again)in 1848 by Frederick Bakewell

Image source Wikipedia

1843 1848 1861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

Then improved on once again13 years later this time by Giovanni Castelli an Italian priest

Pantelegraph image courtesy ITIS Gallileo

Castellirsquos pantelegraph

Then in 1865 Castelli went on to establish the first public fax service(the service worked over telegraph lines and ran between Paris and Lyon)

1843 1848 18651861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

first fax service

Paris

Lyon

this was still 11 years before the invention of the telephone(this isnrsquot unusualmdashwe donrsquot always know the true value of a technology until a related one comes along)

Photo of Bell using the telephone in New York

1843 1848 18651861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

1876

first fax service

Image source Wikipedia

this was still 11 years before the invention of the telephone(this isnrsquot unusualmdashwe donrsquot always know the true value of a technology until a related one comes along)

Photo of Bell using the telephone in New York

1843 1848 18651861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

1876

first fax service

Image source Wikipedia

1843 1848 18651861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

Thomas Edison

Elisha Gray

Innocenzo Manzetti

Alexander Graham Bell

Johann Phillip Reis

Antonio Meucci

Six people were known to have been working on ldquovoice transmission over a wirerdquo around the time that Bell was ultimately successful in obtaining the first patent

first fax service

1876

telephone patent

Alexander Graham Bell

InnocenzoManzetti

Thomas Edison

J P Reis

Elisha Gray

Antonio Meucci

Image source Wikipedia - History of the telephone

Shortly thereafter a Hungarian engineer by the name of Tivadar Puskaacutes invented the telephone switchboardmdashwhich allowed for the formation of telephone exchanges (and eventually networks)

1843 1848 1865 18761861

Giovanni Castelli

Alexander Bain

Frederick Bakewell

1877

Tivadar Puskaacutes

telephone exchange

Tivadar Puskaacutes

Thomas Edison

Elisha Gray

Innocenzo Manzetti

Alexander Graham Bell

Johann Phillip Reis

Antonio Meucci

telephone patent

Alexander Graham Bell

InnocenzoManzetti

Thomas Edison

J P Reis

Elisha Gray

Antonio Meucci

Image source Wikipedia - History of the telephone

first fax service

httpwwwflickrcomphotosqwrrty3989643653

almost immediatelymdashwe began

dreaming up ways to move

phones around

the early 1920s

A wireless phone prototype for the well-to-do lady on the town

an example from

Watch the video Courtesy Patheacute Films Archive on YouTube

of course itrsquos a bit bulky so the lady may need a gentleman to carry it

Watch the video Courtesy Patheacute Films Archive on YouTube

ldquoThe two ladies are using a small simple HF radio probably a lsquoCatrsquos Whiskerrsquo type For it to work it needs to be earthed which is why itrsquos connected to the fire hydrantrdquo

telephone box

wire coiled around a re hydrant

Watch the video Courtesy Patheacute Films Archive on YouTube

ldquoThe antenna (or aerial) is the wire in the umbrellardquo

handheld mouthpiece

- Explanation courtesy of Simon Atkins an Ex-Royal Signals officer

Watch the video Courtesy Patheacute Films Archive on YouTube

throughout our environment

the simplest solution was

of course to distribute the phones

Public phone booth Lancaster county Pennsylvania

(a solution that remained useful for more than 100 years)

Copyright Popular Science - via modernmechanixcom

also build a portable booth

in a pinch you could

a mobile phone center for reporters in 1960s Chicago

Finally after twenty years of experimentation(and the invention of microprocessors) we ended up with this

1983 the $3995 DynaTACthe first mobile telephone that could connect to the telephone network without the assistance of a mobile operator

which was released about the same time as this

1984 the Apple Macintoshthe first commercially successful personal

computer to feature a mouse and a graphical user interface

which was released about the same time as this

1984 the Apple Macintoshthe first commercially successful personal

computer to feature a mouse and a graphical user interface

the following ten years were pretty much devoted to finding ways to combine these two concepts

+

until in 1993 IBM and Bell South released the worldrsquos first smartphone the Simon Personal Communicator

ooh rounded cornershellip

Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable computer with a phoneit also incorporated many concepts that are now standard on mobile devices

clock

calendar

address book

email

text messaging

touchscreen

virtual keyboard

electronic sketchpad

handwriting recognition

predictive text input

Simonrsquos creators also envisioned the concept ofapps to personalise and extend the devicersquos capabilities

+

cartridges designed to t Simonrsquos PCMCIA slot

AccountingVersion 10

Music PlayerVersion 11

CameraVersion 10

Artistrsquos rendering based on photos from ldquoBefore iPhone and Android came Simonrdquo

until in 1993 IBM and Bell South released the worldrsquos first smartphone the Simon Personal Communicator

ooh rounded cornershellip

Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable computer with a phoneit also incorporated many concepts that are now standard on mobile devices

clock

calendar

address book

email

text messaging

touchscreen

virtual keyboard

electronic sketchpad

handwriting recognition

predictive text input

Simonrsquos creators also envisioned the concept ofapps to personalise and extend the devicersquos capabilities

+

cartridges designed to t Simonrsquos PCMCIA slot

AccountingVersion 10

Music PlayerVersion 11

CameraVersion 10

Artistrsquos rendering based on photos from ldquoBefore iPhone and Android came Simonrdquo

Simon was not just the first device to combine a portable computer with a phoneit also incorporated many concepts that are now standard on mobile devices

clock

calendar

address book

email

text messaging

touchscreen

virtual keyboard

electronic sketchpad

handwriting recognition

predictive text input

Simonrsquos creators also envisioned the concept ofapps to personalise and extend the devicersquos capabilities

+

cartridges designed to t Simonrsquos PCMCIA slot

AccountingVersion 10

Music PlayerVersion 11

CameraVersion 10

Artistrsquos rendering based on photos from ldquoBefore iPhone and Android came Simonrdquo

Simonrsquos creators also envisioned the concept ofapps to personalise and extend the devicersquos capabilities

+

cartridges designed to t Simonrsquos PCMCIA slot

AccountingVersion 10

Music PlayerVersion 11

CameraVersion 10

Artistrsquos rendering based on photos from ldquoBefore iPhone and Android came Simonrdquo

Simon retailed for $899 and sold about 50000 units until it was discontinued due to a combination of

ldquotechnical limitations product delays a world-class corporate meltdown revolving-door management

and bad business decisionsrdquo

Source ldquoBefore iPhone and Android came Simonrdquo

Simonrsquos apps were designed to be installed directly onto the deviceyet around that time scientists at Xerox PARC were experimenting with a slightly different approach

Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive

httpwwwflickrcomphotosarmaggeusa3176297283

The most profound technologies are those that disappear They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from ithellip

- Mark Weiser (1991)

ldquo

To further explore Weiserrsquos predictions of the implications of ubiquitous computing PARC developed an office based context-aware networked computing environment and a device they called the PARC TAB

Courtesy Xerox PARC press archive

The TAB was designed to be carried or worn at all times Its size weight and features were specifically intended to

promote casual spur of the moment computing

chorded keys enabling basic one-handed navigation

touch screen + stylus

Name Marge Eldridge

Office [ ] Ext 518

Manager

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

rdquo 1441 511 462983

ldquo 1442

rdquo 1445

tiny processor =smaller cheaper amp more lightweight

(terminal-style) device

TAB applications run on a userrsquos (far

more capable) desktop system

This level of portability (unheard of in 1993) was made possible by several key design decisions

constantly connected to other Tabs and computers through a series of

infrared communication hubs

added benefitcontextual awareness

(eg location interactions with other devices data and applications accessed)

(apparently researchers at Euro PARC were Mac based and developed ways to use and prototype Tab applications on a Mac)

This environment also enabled experiments in ldquointimate computingrdquo One of these was a context-aware application prototype called ldquoForget-me-notrdquo

The app was designed to serve as an ldquoexternal memory prostheticrdquo automatically gathering data (from the TAB or other devices operating on the network) This data could be used by participants to easily track and recall important aspects of their lives

Name Marge Eldridge

Office [ ] Ext 518

Manager

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

rdquo 1441 511 462983

ldquo 1442

rdquo 1445

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

date time person 1 number dialled

phone call

person 2

Forget me not Intimate computing in support of human memory

tiny processor =smaller cheaper amp more lightweight

(terminal-style) device

TAB applications run on a userrsquos (far

more capable) desktop system

This level of portability (unheard of in 1993) was made possible by several key design decisions

constantly connected to other Tabs and computers through a series of

infrared communication hubs

added benefitcontextual awareness

(eg location interactions with other devices data and applications accessed)

(apparently researchers at Euro PARC were Mac based and developed ways to use and prototype Tab applications on a Mac)

This environment also enabled experiments in ldquointimate computingrdquo One of these was a context-aware application prototype called ldquoForget-me-notrdquo

The app was designed to serve as an ldquoexternal memory prostheticrdquo automatically gathering data (from the TAB or other devices operating on the network) This data could be used by participants to easily track and recall important aspects of their lives

Name Marge Eldridge

Office [ ] Ext 518

Manager

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

rdquo 1441 511 462983

ldquo 1442

rdquo 1445

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

date time person 1 number dialled

phone call

person 2

Forget me not Intimate computing in support of human memory

This environment also enabled experiments in ldquointimate computingrdquo One of these was a context-aware application prototype called ldquoForget-me-notrdquo

The app was designed to serve as an ldquoexternal memory prostheticrdquo automatically gathering data (from the TAB or other devices operating on the network) This data could be used by participants to easily track and recall important aspects of their lives

Name Marge Eldridge

Office [ ] Ext 518

Manager

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

rdquo 1441 511 462983

ldquo 1442

rdquo 1445

Manages

25194 1439 [ 461770]

ldquo 1441

date time person 1 number dialled

phone call

person 2

Forget me not Intimate computing in support of human memory

today

1992 1993

IBM Simon

PARC TAB

the iPhone Facebook and cloud computing were still close to 20 years away

Motorola DynaTAC

1983

Apple Macintosh

1984 today

httpwwwflickrcomphotosremedios66912941

is cool useful or in some way

ldquosuperiorrdquo it will inevitably thrive

itrsquos easy to believe that if something

when working with technology

httpwwwflickrcomphotosremedios66912941

is cool useful or in some way

ldquosuperiorrdquo it will inevitably thrive

itrsquos easy to believe that if something

when working with technology

yoursquoll never hear someone spontaneously express a wish for a ubiquitous house or city

There are days in fact when it can seem to me that the entire endeavor has arisen out of some combination of the technically feasible and that which is of interest to people working in HCI

- Adam Greenfield Everyware

ldquo

httpwwwflickrcomphotosdodoorg5023608260

2012

Googlersquos Project Glass

no matter how cool it may bemany technologies ecosystems and conditions must align before an invention

enters the lives of ldquonormal peoplerdquo

40 years of innovation including the growth of the microprocessor the Internet the web network data protocols display technologies

something normal people will use -)

1962 1971

ldquoThe Electrocularrdquo

Virtual reality gogglesDr Ivan SutherlandUniversity of Utah

1937

use of reflector sights in cockpits during World War II

2012

Googlersquos Project Glass

something normal people will use -)

1962 1971

ldquoThe Electrocularrdquo

Virtual reality gogglesDr Ivan SutherlandUniversity of Utah

1937

use of reflector sights in cockpits during World War II

Itrsquos worth remembering as well that ldquonormal peoplerdquo donrsquot actually have to use a technology for it to impact their lives

1960

Gilbert Klopfstein a French test-pilot creates first HUD system for use in commercial aviation

40 years of innovation including the growth of the microprocessor the Internet the web network data protocols display technologies

2012

Googlersquos Project Glass

something normal people will use -)

1962 1971

ldquoThe Electrocularrdquo

Virtual reality gogglesDr Ivan SutherlandUniversity of Utah

1937

use of reflector sights in cockpits during World War II

the most useful and widely deployed implementations may also turn out to be relatively mundane

1960 1988

BMW implements the first HUD-integrated telematics

(modern day version shown)

Gilbert Klopfstein a French test-pilot creates first HUD system for use in commercial aviation

httpwwwflickrcomphotosjordanfischer61429449

ldquoTechnological revolutions have several interesting properties First we tend to overestimatethe immediate impact and underestimate the long-term impact

Second we tend to place the emphasis on the technologies themselves when it is really the social impact and cultural change that will be most dramaticrdquo

ndash Don Norman Drop everything yoursquore doing

learning how to use

a new technology is one thing

httpwwwflickrcomphotosjcfrog4692750598

making space for it

in our lives is another

httpwwwflickrcomphotoskrossbow4509414056

even when the value proposition

should appear obvious

Bell telephone advertisement in National Geographic 1958 - via Modernmechanix

this not only makes it tricky to market new productsit can also prevent those who design and develop them from

imagining something completely new

From futurists to product designerswe canrsquot help but insert bits of the present into our dreams of the future

as imagined in 1910

Utopia The Quest for the Ideal Society in the Western World

telecommunication in the year 2000

From futurists to product designerswe canrsquot help but insert bits of the present into our dreams of the future

as imagined in 1910

Utopia The Quest for the Ideal Society in the Western World

telecommunication in the year 2000

and re-imagined in 1956

Scientific American 1956 - via Modernmechanix

Home of the Futureas imagined by Disney Imagineering MIT

and Monsanto in 1957

The home of the future looks futuristic and is entirely made of plastic

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

The home of the future looks futuristic and is entirely made of plastic

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

the interior however is designed to feel familiar with a ldquonormalrdquo looking piano and dining room

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

The recurring selling point however is plastic There are plastic countertops (motorised) plastics shelves and a ldquoluxuriousrdquo set of plastic cups plates and dishes

(Monsantorsquos involvement obviously had something to do with this but plastic was also the modern substance of the day)

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

In the bedroom ldquothe lady of the houserdquo has her own private plastic boudoir On the counter is a speaker phone complete with ultra modern push buttons instead of a rotary dial

(Note how lovingly the wife stares at the phone while speaking to her husband On the one hand itrsquos charming that multitasking as you speak wasnt yet socially acceptable but it also kind of sad that 50 years later we still spend a lot of time staring at our phones)

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

The man of the house has the pleasure of shaving in his ultra modern bathroommdashfashioned out of one giant piece of pre-moulded plastic

Therersquos also a ldquobuilt-inrdquo razor(The razor is corded and hardwired to the wall -)

-1957-

Watch the video on YouTube

The future of shoppingas imagined in 1969

The lady of the house browses a selection of tempting offers via video display

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

The lady of the house browses a selection of tempting offers via video display

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

Push-buttons and dials are used to control what appears on the display

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

She then uses another device to key in her choice of purchase(It was hard to imagine at that point that devices might just ldquotalkrdquo to each other)

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

(To prevent social embarrassment) the husband receives an itemised list of his wifersquos purchases

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

which he carefully inspects

-1969-

Watch the video on YouTube

Watch the video on YouTube

he then prints a copy of the order and uses a touch screen and stylus to sign in approval

-1969-

but mixing old and new isnrsquot all bad

httpwwwflickrcomphotosdavilla3363343340

sometimes it may be

exactly what we need

httpwwwflickrcomphotosdavilla3363343340

sometimes it may be

exactly what we need

The ldquooldrdquo brings with it familiar metaphors

httpwwwflickrcomphotosmujitra6778948371

and provides a common conceptual framework

familiar gesture says ldquoI get how to use thisrdquo

transforming something alien into something that feels magical yet familiar enough that you can see yourself using it

so many wiresrun away almost like shopping at Nike -)

Courtesy Makerbot Industries Blog and on Flickr

transforming something alien into something that feels magical yet familiar enough that you can see yourself using it

so many wiresrun away almost like shopping at Nike -)

Courtesy Makerbot Industries Blog and on Flickr

httpwwwflickrcomphotosducdigital2892313560

ldquoSuccessful products are precisely those that donrsquot attempt to move user experiences significantly even if the underlying technology has radically shifted

In fact the whole point of user experience design is to manufacture the necessary normalcy for a product to succeedrdquo - Greg Borenstein

httpwwwflickrcomphotosjurvetson302869583

some ideas never quite make it

itrsquos maybe not surprising that

with nothing familiar to hold on to

only go so far

but metaphor and familiarity

Golly geewith a contraption like this

my wife could spend the whole day shopping Good thing I still have to approve

all those purchases

features to (implicitly) alleviate social angstmany new technologies require

In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp released the first clamshell style laptop The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8150 yet thatrsquos not why it failed to catch on

Source Wikipedia

Golly geewith a contraption like this

my wife could spend the whole day shopping Good thing I still have to approve

all those purchases

features to (implicitly) alleviate social angstmany new technologies require

In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp released the first clamshell style laptop The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8150 yet thatrsquos not why it failed to catch on

Source Wikipedia

In 1982 GRiD Systems Corp released the first clamshell style laptop The GRiD Compass 1100 cost $8150 yet thatrsquos not why it failed to catch on

Source Wikipedia

httpwwwflickrcomphotosducdigital2892313560

ldquoIt was designed for business executives Andone of the biggest obstacles we had for selling the product was the factmdashbelieve it or notmdashthat it had a keyboard

Business people who were in their 40s and 50s didnrsquot have a computer or keyboard in their offices It was associated with being part of the secretarial pool And so youd put this thing in their office and theyd say Get that out of here It was like getting a demotion They were really uncomfortable with itrdquo

ndash Jeff Hawkins speaking at the Computer History Museum

in three ways to cause social angsta technology must have the potential to impact us

according to anthropologist Genevieve Bell

(or as she calls it ldquomoral panicrdquo

Women and children first technology and moral panic

httpwwwflickrcomphotosfaceme2882556082

it has to change

our relationship to time

it has to change

our relationship to space

httpwwwflickrcomphotosshokai4678255766

httpwwwflickrcomphotosmisbehave2352753067

and change our relationship

to other people

changes in our relationship to time and space donrsquot come along nearly as often as they used to

the phonograph

to hear the voices of the dead

suddenly made it possible

httpwwwflickrcomphotospuuikibeach7400339252

the phonograph

to hear the voices of the dead

suddenly made it possible

httpwwwflickrcomphotospuuikibeach7400339252

httpwwwflickrcomphotospuuikibeach7400339252Train wreck at Montparnasse 1895 Wikipedia

the advent of the railway

caused intense fear of death

ldquoit is really flying and it is impossible to divest yourself of the notion of instant deathldquo ndash The Railway Journey The Industrialization of Time and Space in the 19th Century

(above and beyond that caused by horrific accidents)

it also caused what the Lancet medical journal then termed ldquonervous fatiguerdquo

httpwwwflickrcomphotossvensson601272668

ldquoeven the elementary concepts of space and time have begun to vacillate Space is

killed by the railways and we are left with time aloneldquo ndash German-Jewish poet Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)

httpwwwflickrcomphotossvensson601272668

ldquoeven the elementary concepts of space and time have begun to vacillate Space is

killed by the railways and we are left with time aloneldquo ndash German-Jewish poet Heinrich Heine (1797-1856)

shifting time and space may now seem somewhat mundane

but changes in our

relationships with people

will likely cause angst for

many years to come

so what can the past teach us about designing for the future

as if it will arrive fully formed on

we often talk about the future

Public domain Space colony art from the 1970s

our doorstep one fine morning

but changes in our

relationships with people

will likely cause angst for

many years to come

so what can the past teach us about designing for the future

as if it will arrive fully formed on

we often talk about the future

Public domain Space colony art from the 1970s

our doorstep one fine morning

so what can the past teach us about designing for the future

as if it will arrive fully formed on

we often talk about the future

Public domain Space colony art from the 1970s

our doorstep one fine morning

as if it will arrive fully formed on

we often talk about the future

Public domain Space colony art from the 1970s

our doorstep one fine morning

and the stories we tell

the old all jumbled up

but the future is already here

httpwwwflickrcomphotosmilo_riano4336541309

with the new

contactless Octopus smart card

city-wide wi-fi

smart grid andenvironmental monitoring

residential smartcard entry

old organically formed neighbourhoods

paper map from the hotel

4G alreadyovertaking 3G

httpwwwflickrcomphotospreetamrai5438199316

will be defined not merely by the

the success of the products we design

technologies we invent

choose to welcome them

but by the cultures that

Rate of accelerationdeceleration of technology adoption by country

Research by Intel measures the rate at which technology adoption exceeds (or falls below) expectations for the countryrsquos level of GDP Rates have been averaged across three technologies mobile phones PCrsquos and internet users

a technology that now gathers dust in

httpwwwflickrcomphotosmattjiggins4009310821

which brings us back to the humble fax machine

all but one ldquomodernrdquo culture

Japan

use of seals instead of signatures for official

transactions

warmth amp personality

instant visibility

culture ofhandwritten documents

tech literacy 15 of the population is over 65

httpwwwflickrcomphotoskankan55026589

in Japan fax machines still thrive

in the home and at work

Source Japan and the fax a love affair

use of seals instead of signatures for official

transactions

warmth amp personality

instant visibility

culture ofhandwritten documents

tech literacy 15 of the population is over 65

httpwwwflickrcomphotoskankan55026589

in Japan fax machines still thrive

in the home and at work

Source Japan and the fax a love affair

But culture isnrsquot just about them(these people we call ldquousersrdquo)

Anthropologist Clifford Geertz once defined culture as ldquothe stories we tell ourselves about ourselves ldquo

httpwwwflickrcomphotosleweb36498812861

Anthropologist Clifford Geertz once defined culture as ldquothe stories we tell ourselves about ourselves ldquo

httpwwwflickrcomphotosleweb36498812861

httpwwwflickrcomphotosleweb36498812861

The more technology surrounds usthe more all of us will play a part in defining these stories

httpwwwflickrcomphotosleweb36498812861

the future will not just be defined by the next big inventionmdashit will be also be defined by our ability to dream beyond existing ones

httpwwwflickrcomphotoskeepwaddling13048726936

innovation is not about doing something new out of thin air It is about forgetting that what you are doing is oldldquo- Dawn Nafus anthropologist

httpwwwflickrcomphotostinou453593446

thank you

many thanks to the amazing photographers on

httpcreativecommonsorglicensesby20

yiibu

helloyiibucomcontact usat

Presentation deck available

httpwwwslidesharenetyiibu