European Energy Challenges v2

| Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector

Paris – May 11th, 2012

European Energy Challenges Colette Lewiner


An overview of the European energy markets

Recent events are impacting the energy markets

• Middle-East political tensions

• Fukushima accident consequences

• Economic downturn

Present and future energy mix is evolving

• Renewables

• Gas

• Energy mix costs

Sustainability questions

• EU 2020 objectives

• Demand Response

Smart grids

Conclusion

2


Others

12%

7%Other EU

5%6%

14%

13%

10%7%

4%

22%

Total Iranian oil exports

2.3 m bl/d

The rising political tensions in Iran are particularly worrying

for global oil supply

3

Iran’s oil exports (Jan to June 2011) After China, the EU is the largest importer of Iranian oil

(about 20%)

In response to the Iran’s nuclear program negotiations

failure, the US and Europe decided sanctions against Iran,

who, in return, threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz:

• Strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf

• Oil embargo from the EU (due to start in July) which should

hit 450,000 to 550,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil exports

But Iran banned crude oil supply to France, the UK and

the EU right away

In addition, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India could

reduce their purchases (up to 250,000 bl/d). In total,

between 25% and 35% of Iran’s oil exports could be

impacted

However, Saudi Arabia is increasing significantly its

production to curb price

Sourc

e: F

inancia

l T

imes

Sourc

e: F

inancia

l T

imes

35%

of all seaborne traded oil

20%

of oil traded worldwide

14 crude oil tankers

Almost 17 million barrels

Average daily oil flow

through the Strait of

Hormuz (2011)

% of each country’s total oil imports Jan to June 2011

China

11%

South Africa

25%

Turkey

51%

South Korea

10%

India

11%

Japan

10%

13%

Italy

13%

Primary factors driving demand are economic growth and increased

requirements in the developing world Iran political situations may place global

production and transportation at risk

Spain

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Oil prices in European currencies are at their highest

Oil prices forecasts uncertainty is increased by

speculation: each barrel traded on the physical

market is traded 35 times on the financial markets

There is some consumption/price elasticity

High present oil prices are linked to tensions in

Middle East and Iran

In Euros, the crude oil spot price is at its highest

There is currently a $20 spread between WTI and Brent,

a the consequence of a localized logistic phenomenon

at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI is priced

President Obama is supporting a new pipeline

(Keystone XL)

4

High oil prices impact economic growth (EU’s oil import costs up 44% in 2011 compared to 2010 and net oil import bill estimated to account for 2.8% EU’s GDP in

2012 compared to 1.7% from 2000 to 2010) and trade exchanges balance

Oil prices

Source: Focus Gaz, February 17, 2012

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

May 2011 Apr 2012 Sept 2011 Jan 2012

Brent

WTI

Crude oil spot – Brent vs. WTI

Source: Ycharts Source: France inflation

Crude oil spot – Brent in US dollars and in Euros

123.04

101.53


Long-term contracts price Spot price

Gas is not a global market. Very different regional pricing systems

US spot prices could go up on the mid-term triggered by the new EPA

(Environment Protection Agency) regulation on air pollution (Cross State Air

Pollution Rule) that could lead to 20% of US coal-fired plants phase-out and their

replacement by gas

Beginning of 2012, Gazprom has agreed to reduce by 10% the price of its

long-term contracts to Europe

5

US spot gas prices are only one third of long-term European gas prices. For how long?

Source: Focus Gaz January 2012

Source: Gas Exchanges web sites, SG Commodities Research, BMWI – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13

Gas spot prices Gas prices evolution

In €/MWh ($4.4/MBtu=€10.6 /MWh)

Europe versus US gas prices 0

20

40

60

80

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

Bre

nt p

rice

[€/b

l]

Ga

s p

rice

s [€

/MW

h]

DE - Import price NL - TTF

BE - Zeebrugge UK - NBP

DE - NCG FR - PEG Nord

Brent month ahead


0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Switzerland

Brazil

Czech Republic

Finland

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Vietnam

South Africa

Germany

Saudi Arabia

UAE

Canada

Ukraine

United Kingdom

South Korea

France

Japan

India

Russia

USA

China MWe

Operable

Under construction

Planned

Proposed

Post-Fukushima nuclear reactors’ market: new builds mainly

in Asia, Russia and Middle East

Worldwide, 435 reactors are in operation, 62 under construction and 489 planned or proposed (April 2012, World Nuclear Association)

6

Source: World Nuclear Association

The vast majority of new constructions and existing plants in operation should continue with

some delays and more safety focus. The IEA* forecasts that nuclear output will rise by

more than 70% over the period to 2035

Overview of existing nuclear plants and project capacities (as of April 2012) The final number of planned or proposed

reactors is difficult to assess. However, two

points are clear:

• Provided reactors are run safely, the consequences

of the Fukushima accident should be less

important than viewed just after the accident

• The proportion of new, safer “Generation 3

reactor” builds will increase

It is worthwhile mentioning that:

• In the US:

TVA has decided to complete Bellefonte 1 reactor

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has certified the

design of Westinghouse Electric Co.'s AP1000 reactor

Southern Company is building 2 new nuclear plants in

Vogtle, Georgia

• Finland announced a new build, the first

announcement of a new site anywhere in the world

since the Fukushima accident

• Russian Rosenergoatom has received a license for

building the Kaliningrad plant

• No.1 nuclear unit in Zhejiang Sanmen (China) has

restarted the infrastructure construction project

• Bulgaria has decided to build a 7th reactor at

Kozloduy

*IEA: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2011


3,294

5,599

3,136

5,010

3,265

5,708

3,177

5,098

Electricity Gas

2008 2009 2010 2011

-4.7%+4.1%

-6% +8%

-2.7%

-11%

There is some elasticity between the economic situation and

the energy consumption

In 2009, electricity and gas consumption dropped in Europe (-4.7% and -6.1% respectively) due to the crisis, in 2010,

they increased again (+4.1% and +7.0%) thanks to the economic recovery and colder than average winter

temperatures. Wholesale electricity and gas prices followed the same trend.

In 2011, European electricity and gas consumption decreased respectively by 2.7%* and 10.7%**, mainly due to a

mild weather. In France, electricity consumption decreased by 6.8% (weather-adjusted: +0.8%) and gas

consumption by 13.4% (weather-adjusted: -1.9%).

7

Source: ENTSO-E, BP – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13

Evolution of electricity and gas consumption (M/M-12) non-weather-adjusted

A second economic slowdown would impact negatively the energy consumption and prices

EU electricity and gas consumption

(non-weather-adjusted)

* Société Générale Energy Pulse (Focus group representing 63% of European electricity consumption) **Eurogas

-1%-3%

-2%0%

-4%

0% 1%-2%

-5%

-10%

-3%

9%

-7%

-16%

-12%

-4% -6%-2%

-4%

-12%-14%

-22%

-10%

14%

Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12

Electricity

Gas

Source: SG Energy Pulse – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13








• Renewables

• Gas




• Demand Response

Smart grids

Conclusion

8


European energy mix evolution

Energy mix should evolve towards

more gas, renewables and coal (in

certain countries)

Shale gas development is changing

the picture

In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas

share of primary energy consumption

reaches 25% in 2035 at a global level

(more than coal, slightly less than oil)

but leads to a +3.5°C global

temperature increase (compared to

the +2°C objective)

In 2011, the IEA** has examined a Low

Nuclear Scenario:

• No new nuclear plant is built in OECD

countries

• Non-OECD countries build only half of

the projected nuclear plants

• The operating lifespan of existing

nuclear plants is limited to 45 years

However, today’s nuclear energy

development forecast is more

optimistic

9

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BE BG CH CZ DE ES FI FR UK HU IT LT NL PL RO SE SI SK

Solar + Biomass

Wind

Hydro

Other fossil

Gas

Lignite + Coal

Nuclear

2010 mix: lef t-hand side bar

2025 mix: right-hand side bar

2010 and 2025 electricity mix (as of June 2011)

The energy mix evolution could result in: • Higher costs (renewables development)

• Higher temperature increase (more fossil fuels) • Lower energy independency

Source: ENTSO-E – Capgemini analysis and estimations, EEMO13

*GAS: Golden Age of Gas, International Energy Agency **World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

Gro

wth

(%

)

Electricity production (TWh)

Solar PV

Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)

DE

IT

CZ

SK

FR

SI

DE

CZ

FR

2005

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

Top 3 countries ranked by:

Capacity installed* Growth** (absolute)

2. ES

1. DE

3. IT

2. FR

1. SK

3. SI

* Volume for wind, small hydro, geothermal and solar PV in MW and for biogas and biomass in TWh

** Relative growth additionally displayed for solar PV and wind

Wind

Growth (abs.)Capacity Growth (%)

DE

ES

IT

ES

DE

FR

RO

BG

PL

Biomass

DE

FI

SE

PL

SE

NL

+

2005 2006

2007 2008 2009

2010

2009

Renewable energies have continued their quick development.

For how long?

10

A stable governmental policy is key for renewables development. The eurozone sovereign debt issues should

lead to subsidies decreases and threaten the EU 2020 objective achievement

Source: Eur’Observer barometers – Capgemini analysis, EEMO13

Growth rate of renewable energy sources As of May 2011, 10% of the European

generation plants under construction

are from renewable energy sources (vs.

7% in 2009)

In 2011, despite a drop of the new EU

wind installed capacity due to the

financial crisis and tougher regulations,

wind power covered over 5% of EU’s

consumption (172 TWh)

Many governments have or are launching

large offshore wind programs

• September 2010: 300 MW offshore wind

farm inaugurated in the UK

• France: part of the 3,000 MW tender

awarded to 2 consortiums (one led by EDF

for 1,400 MW and one led by Iberdrola for

500 MW) in April 2012

• North Sea: 400 MW (Germany) and 325

MW (Belgium) under construction

• Nuclear phase out in Germany should

boost wind power but creates issues on

the grid

Despite the solar PV growth in 2011

globally (+44%), many solar companies

went bust because of China competition

In 2011, renewable energy investment

rose 5% to US$260 billion* globally

(solar energy: +36%) *Bloomberg New Energy Finance


The gas paradigm is changing

In the new IEA GAS* scenario, gas consumption is increased. Main

assumptions are:

• China ambitious policy for gas use

• Increased power plants’ consumption linked to lower nuclear energy

• Sustained low gas price

However, in this scenario, heavy investments in infrastructure

(difficult to finance) are needed

11

* GAS: Golden Age of Gas, IEA WEO 2011

World primary natural gas demand by

sector and scenario

Source: World Energy Outlook 2011: Golden Age of Gas Report

Source: EIA

Global unconventional natural gas resources (tcm)

NO: 2,324

FR: 5,040

PL: 5,236

SE: 1,148

FR: 5,040 Largest EU technically recoverable shale gas resources (bcm)

Shale gas changes the gas perspective:

• It increases the total gas resources to 250 years of

consumption • It is widely distributed

• It is cheap ($2/Mbtu in the US) • It allows to repatriate gas

consuming industries as chemicals and to fight against

deindustrialization


Extensive analysis have been carried out on energy mix

scenarios in France

12

The Energies 2050 commission examined four existing energy scenarios:

1. Lifespan extension of existing reactors: all existing nuclear reactors lifetime is extended to 60 years providing the nuclear safety

authority (ASN) allows it

2. Quicker adoption of 3rd generation nuclear reactors: replacement of all existing nuclear reactors by 3rd generation reactors (EPR) as

soon as they reach their 40 years lifetime, which implies to build at least 2 EPR reactors per year during 10 years (from 2020 to 2030)

3. Progressive reduction of nuclear energy in the mix: all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years

lifetime and 1 on 2 reactors is replaced by a 3rd generation reactor (EPR), which leads to a 40-60% nuclear energy share by 2030

4. a. Nuclear phase out (more fossil fuel energy): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime

and are replaced by fossil fueled plants

4. b. Nuclear phase out (more RES): all existing nuclear reactors are decommissioned when reaching their 40 years lifetime and are

replaced by renewable energy plants

50 60 70 80 90 100 110

Nuclear phase out (more RES)

Nuclear phase out (more fossil fuel energy)

Progressive reduction of nuclear energy in the mix

Quicker adoption of 3rd generation nuclear reactors

Lifespan extension of existing nuclear reactors

Source: Energies 2050, February 2012 – Capgemini analysis

Assumptions in the different scenarios by 2030

Energies 2050 commission recommends extending nuclear reactors lifespan

1

2

3

4a

4b

~25 MtCO2/y

~25 MtCO2/y

30-50 MtCO2/y

~120 MtCO2/y

~45 MtCO2/y

Stable

Not able to measure

- 100,000 to 150,000 jobs

- 200,000 jobs

Stable

Stable

Energy sources diversification but increase of fossil fuel imports

Increase of fossil fuel imports

Potential issues on grid security

Electricity generation costs (€/MWh w/o taxes) CO2 emissions Employment Energy security








• Renewables

• Gas




• Demand Response

Smart grids

Conclusion

13


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

EU

-27

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns [b

ase

ye

ar=

10

0] Historical evolution of GHG emissions

Path to reach 2020 target2020 target for EU-27

-20%

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

1,850

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

EU

-27

Pri

ma

ry e

ne

rgy c

on

su

mp

tio

n [M

toe

]

Historical evolution of primary energy consumptionPath to reach 2020 target2020 target for EU-27

Projection with current measures in place(as per the March 2011 EU Energy Ef f iciency Plan)

-20%

-9%

Status on the EU 2020 objectives

After the 2009 drop (-7.1%), GHG emissions increased

by 2.2% due to the 2010 economic recovery. For 2011,

88% ETS sector CO2 emissions released data show a

2.4%* decrease, mainly due to the combustion/power

sector (-3.1%)

An economic slowdown would push CO2 emissions

down

In its March 2011 Energy Efficiency plan, the EU

estimated that with current measures only half of the

objective would be attained and developed a new draft

Directive focusing on:

• Triggering better energy efficiency of public buildings

• Demand response programs notably through smart meters

roll out

• White Certificates mechanisms extension

• Better usage of cogeneration

In 2013, the EU will re-assess the situation

14

Sourc

e: B

P s

tatistical r

eport

2011,

Euro

pean E

nvironm

ent

Agency,

Eur’O

bserv

er

– C

apgem

ini analy

sis

, E

EM

O13

The present European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be amended to

provide predictable and high enough CO2 prices. The UK announced a carbon price

floor to start in 2013 at £16/t of CO2

EU-27 GHG emissions

EU-27 primary energy consumption

*Deutsche Bank analysis, April 2012


In certain countries as France, peak shaving is a key issue

during cold weather

15

% peak shaving observed in various pilots worldwide

Peak shaving: the use of displays helps but the customers’ behavior is key

Several means exist for

peak shaving and energy

savings, that can be

combined or not:

• Dynamic tariffs (that

should be further

developed with the mass

roll-out of smart meters)

• Automation such as smart

thermostat, smart

appliances, in-home

displays or web-based

consumer portal

• Demand management

programs such as

customers alerts, social

networks communication or

feedbacks through bills,

web, SMS, smart phones

% peak shaving Range of peak shaving

Source: Capgemini Consulting


In all developed countries, energy savings are key

16

% energy savings observed in various pilots worldwide

Prices increase and Time-of-Use tariffs

should trigger sustained energy savings results

Large-scale pilots

operated for more than

one year reach energy

savings in the 2-6%

range while more

focused programs based

on customer segmentation

can reach up to 18%*

energy savings

In France, only one third

of peak shaving electricity

savings result in final

electricity consumption

reduction

% energy saving Range of energy saving

*Literature review for the Energy Demand Research Project, Sarah Darby, Oxford University, 2010



Demand response potential for EU-27 by 2020

17

Demand Response study

2012 results snapshot

Our study shows that peak shaving potential is significant while electricity savings potential is

more limited

In Capgemini Consulting’s Demand Response

(DR) study*, the potential of peak shaving and

energy savings is modeled on the basis of a

baseline scenario:

• GDP growth 2010-20: 1.8% in average

• CAGR electricity consumption 2010-20: 0.7%

• Some existing energy efficiency programs such

as Grenelle de l’Environnement or White

Certificates

Assumptions are made on:

• Regulation (norms and standards, energy

efficiency objectives, tariffs and incentive policies)

• Market design (possibility to monetize DR on

wholesale markets, contracts optimization, capacity

markets)

• Smart meters penetration and functionalities (for

the households segment)

And typical DR offerings are modeled with

hypothesis on their adoption by customers

*Demand Response study 2012 - Capgemini Consulting, VaasaETT and Enerdata

1 Normative hypothesis: 1 kWh saves 700g CO2 (average European value considering avoided peak capacity is mainly gas-fired plants) 2 Expressed in equivalent of avoided consumption of large size cities (2 mio inhabitants and 150,000 commercials, average consumption of 8.2 TWh/year) 3 Expressed in equivalent of avoided construction of power plants (500 MW)

5.2

24

0.9 4.3

22

0.8

3.7

15

0.62.5

14

0.42.8

12

0.5

1.4

7

0.2

1.1

6

0.21.0

5

0.20.7

4

0.1

0.6

4

0.1

13%

2%

15%

1%

13%

2%

13%

1%

13%

2%

13%

1%

13%

1%

13%

2%

14%

1%

15%

1%

Dynamic scenario:

Savings in CO2 emissions (in Mt of CO21)

Savings in electricity consumption (in equivalent number of major cities2 and in % energy savings)

Savings in peak generating capacities (in number of power plants3 and in % peak shaving)

Moderate scenario:Probable savings based on our observation of current trends in regulatory, technical and market conditions (in number of power plants)

3.1

1.0

4

3%

2%









• Renewables

• Gas




• Demand Response

Smart grids

Conclusion

18


Renewable energies are strongly impacting the grid

management

19

In the absence of competitive electricity storage solutions, gas storage and CCGT rapid ramp up helps managing the renewable output volatility on the grid

Source: Enagas, Outlook for LNG

August 27, 2009 November 8, 2009


20

The need for smart grids is emerging

With the increase of renewable energies generation share, the electrical grid’s management is facing new challenges as these energies provide unforeseeable and intermittent power generation that is thus not schedulable. Balancing demand and supply on the grid becomes very complex.

Wind and solar power units are generally small and decentralized, allowing customers to become occasional producers

The distribution network that is less sophisticated than the transmission network is not designed to manage those decentralized and sometimes bi-directional flows

Smart grids concept has emerged to manage a dramatic increase in data flow, data storage and exchanges both for grid balance and customer relations. They necessitate new equipments and will be more digitally managed. Communication protocols will need to be standardized in order to manage the information flow on the net and with the customers as well as within buildings

New investments needed: Today there is funding in Europe (€1 bn EU funds) and, more so, in the US (stimulus grants: $3.4 bn), for smart grid studies and prototype building but not for their real deployment, while investments are estimated at $200 bn worldwide from 2008-2015 ($53 bn in the US)*

Electric grid management is a key factor to improve security of

supply. However it’s not going to happen overnight. A lot of

regulatory and standardization issues have to be worked out.

Network Device and Events Ops Management

Back Office Applications

Enhanced Power Grid Digital Communications and Control

Smart Meters & Building Automation Control

Interface

Communication Technologies

Renewables

Advanced Metering

Plug-In Hybrids

*Pike Research


Smart grids: key success factors

Smart grids implementation will necessitate new investments:

• The transmission and distribution tariffs will have to increase and by consequence the electricity prices

• Regulators, governments and customers will have to accept these prices increases

Industrial R&D is needed to develop new equipments (as large competitive storage) or

improve existing ones (as HVDC connections).

Communication standards are crucial:

• US is mobilized at the government (Department of Energy) and equipment manufactures levels

• Europe is now considering more seriously this question

• Equipments conceived with the internationally adopted standards will have a clear advantage

Efforts on simulation and modeling are needed:

• For the transmission grid there is a need to build a new European High Voltage grid management

model

• On the distribution side, the retail market has to evolve and modeling is needed. Interesting

experiences initiated by regulators and involving all stakeholders (Utilities, equipment manufacturers,

IT service companies, local authorities...) have been launched in Victoria (Australia), Texas (USA) and

France.

21


Mass roll-out finalized

Mass roll-out by 2020 well-engaged

Mass roll-out probably not completed by 2020

IE

NL

CH

SE

DK

NO

FI

EE

LT

LV

PL

SK

RO SI

UK

PT

ES IT

GR

FR

BE

HU

DE

AT

BG

CZ LU

In addition to smart meters and

boxes, time of use tariffs,

electricity curtailment incentives

and public education are key

elements to implement a demand

management policy

80% of electricity customers in EU

Member States should have smart

meters by 2020. All countries

required to perform cost benefit

analysis by September 2012

In September 2011, France has

decided the mass roll out of 35

million meters from 2013 to 2020 but

the starting date will be delayed.

4 technologies experimented for

gas smart meters (18,500 meters)

in France. Final mass roll-out

decision should be taken in 2013

22

In Europe, the Value Chain unbundling regulation impacts

negatively the return on smart meters

investment Source: ESMA, GEODE – Capgemini analysis, EEMO12, updated March 2012

Smart meters are the first steps for smart grids

Norway E Draft regulation issued in Feb. 2011

80% roll-out by 2016, 100% by 2018

Finland E Legislation into effect. At least

80% roll-out by end 2013

Estonia E Mandatory nationwide

roll-out under discussion

Sweden E 100% smart meters

implemented in 2009

Denmark E Deployment by several

DNOs. No national plan

Germany E 50 trials from 10 to 115,000 meters

Nationwide roll out under discussion

Customers can opt in or out

G Similar to electricity

Poland E Legislation should be ready in 2012

Pilots run by all Utilities


Czech Republic E National roll-out under discussion

Several pilots under way Austria E Legislation adopted in 2010.

Pilots from 10,000 to

240,000 meters

G Legislation under discussion

Belgium E No legislation yet

Several business case

studies under way


France E Decision for roll-out of 35

million smart meters by 2020

taken in 2011.

G GreenLys pilot, decision for

mass roll-out by 2013

Greece E Roll-out under way

G Plans for extending the

electricity system to

water and gas meters

Italy E 100% smart meters

implemented in 2009

G 80% smart meters to be

installed by 2016

Hungary E Legislation adopted in 2011

G Legislation under discussion

UK E 27 million smart meters should

be implemented by 2020


Netherlands E Legal framework for voluntary

installation adopted

Several pilots under way

Portugal E Smart meter substitution plan

presented by the regulator

Several pilots (30,000 to

50,000 meters) run

Spain E 100% smart meters should be

implemented by end 2018

Ireland E National roll-out

planned for 2014-17

G Studies under way

for gas

Electricity and gas smart metering projects in Europe








• Renewables

• Gas




• Demand Response

Smart grids

Conclusion

23


Utilities need to change their business model

Oil and gas procurement tensions and post-

Fukushima accident are leading to changes in the

energy landscape

European Utilities are negatively impacted by the

economic slowdown, governments pressure on prices,

potential extra-taxes and frozen regulation

US Utilities are negatively impacted by low gas prices

They need to adapt their business model, increase

competitiveness and launch profitable innovative

projects

Developed countries have to limit their energy

demand and Utilities have a key role to play

Public deserves a proper information on all energy-

related questions

24

« Energy Orb » (PG&E) gives visual

indications to clients involved in energy

demand management programs


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About Capgemini

25

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European Energy Challenges v2