Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009

DEDesign and Environment

Environmental Science

‣ Ecology‣ Systems Analysis‣ Remote Sensing

Design

‣ Multimedia and Film‣ Expositions / Spatial‣ Systems and Processes

www.design-environment.com

Presentation to MODSIM Conference.Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment Inc.

http://www.design-environment.com/

DEDesign and

Environment

Environmental Applications of Modelling

and Simulation in Business and

Government Decision Making


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Design and Environment

Modelling, Simulation, and

Environmental Policy and Governance

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Problem

Economic and social pressures on natural resources globally

Climate change is a growing concern politically

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues

Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance

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Why modelling and simulation?

Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change and variability

Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric power generation

Global climate models for possible realities in the future

Natural disasters and resource shortages

Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and environmental processes


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The models

GCMs (global climate / general circulation models)- Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol - Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1° to 5°

Process-based

Regional Climate Models- Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for regions (provincial, state, nation) - Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec ice storm)

Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models- Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological function and impacts on society - Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality


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The models

Process-based


(IPCC, 2009)

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The models

Heuristic

A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work


A mazo n F orest

Ecos y stems

Large Sca l e Pat t ern Large Sca l e P r ocess

S m a ll Sca l e Pattern

(fra g m ente d fore s t)

S m a ll Sca l e Process

(f i re)

Road Bu il d i ng

Large - s c a l e d i st u rbanc e

(Fast v a r i ab l e )

Ppt / ET

Deforestat io n


Burn i ng to c le ar l and


C li m ate Chan g e

Large - s c a l e

d i sturban c e

(S l o w var i ab l e)

Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, andcross-scale connections

(Oswald, 2008)

Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006

Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006

Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006

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The models

GeospatialRaster and Vector based Geographic Information- Analyse land pattern- Estimate social and environmental processes that drive change


1. Terra 2. Aqua

Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission

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Policy Application - NicaraguaTropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008)The Challenge:

Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be reported to UNFCCC

Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks-geospatial calculation of land cover types-projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models

Findings:

-Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output

-Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this store

-Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to climate change


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Development - Democratic Republic of Congo

Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009)(http://www.bdafoundation.org/)

The Challenge:

- Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources (medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well-being of communities

Relevance of simulation and modelling:

- Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests

- Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much value exists in the forests


(BDA Foundation, 2009)

(BDA Foundation, 2009)

http://www.bdafoundation.org/

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Modelling, Environment, and

Business Decision Making

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Environmental Modelling in Business

Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing demands, technological innovation, and new regulations

Regulatory frameworks and ‘green’ government programs are evolving rapidly this year

Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals

Problem

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Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible scenarios that a company can follow

Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy and regulatory rhetoric

These scenarios can augment team-based decision making and business strategy formulation

Why modelling and simulation?

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Energy Sector -

DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)

The Challenge:

- Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy sources

Relevance of simulation and modelling:

- Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory processes and environmental technology

- Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making

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Energy Sector -


Current Scenario:

- 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020

- Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits (2) buy international offset credits (10%)(3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for compliance, reduce each year)(4) adapt and reduce emissions

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Energy Sector -


Current Scenario:

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Energy Sector -

DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)Potential Scenario:

- 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with a ‘cap and trade’ system

- Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar federal Clean Energy Fund

- Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision making context

M + S Strategy:

- Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and constraints to action.

- From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate.

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What’s Next?

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What’s Next?

Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus:

- better output from coupled process models- integration of remote sensing with process models- heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry

Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of the above.

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Thank-you

Merci

For more Information: [email protected]

Technology

Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009