Emerging Technologies and Creative Economy

Ministry of Science, ICT, and Future Planning June 20, 2013

Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium Project

Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear)

• Internet of things

• Increasing intelligence

• 3-D Printing

• Synthetic Biology

• Nanotechnology

• Retrofitting buildings for energy production

• Continue robotic manufacturing

• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)

Next Mega Trend: Conscious-Technology

When the distinction between these two trends

becomes blurred, we will have reached the

Post-Information Age

HUMANS BECOMING CYBORGS

BUILT ENVIRONMENT BECOMING INTELLIGENT

1985

2000

2015

2030

Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time

Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical

Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear

Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible

Conscious-Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented

Simplification/Generalization of History and an Alternative Future

Synthetic Biology… the next Revolution

Synthetic Biology

Nanotechnology

Internet of Things – Ubiquitous Computing

Integration of jewelry and the Internet of things

브록 힌즈만, business futures SRI

3-D Printing

3D 프린터로 체스 프린트 중인 박여욱유엔미래포럼대표

3-D Printing the base of a chess piece

The 3D-printed titanium lower mandible implant

Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality

Google does it again!

터키 유엔미래포럼대표 홀로그람 연설 중, 바크 세계미래포럼 중

Retrofitting buildings to produce Energy

UCLA: Widows can have very thin film to make electricity new photovoltaic capacities

Computational Science

Computational biology

Computational Chemistry

Computational Physics

All Accelerate with Moore’s Law

If\then Nano-

technology

Synthetic

Biology

Internet of

Things

3D Printing Conscious-

Technology

Augmented

Reality

Nano-

technology xxx

Synthetic

Biology xxx

Internet of

Things xxx 3D Printing

xxx Conscious-

Technology xxx Augmented

Reality xxx

Emerging Technologies Table

Creative Industries…. for what?

• For arts?

• For media?

• For entertainment?

• Yes, that is part of it, but also creativity to address the 15 Global Challenges

• Businesses grow and survive that address real challenges – especially long-term challenges

15 Global Challenges: A Framework for Understanding Global Change, and an Agenda for Humanity

Challenge 1: How can sustainable development be

achieved for all while addressing global climate change?

Challenge 2: How can everyone have sufficient

clean water without conflict?

Challenge 3: How can population growth and

resources be brought into balance?

Challenge 4: How can genuine democracy

emerge from authoritarian regimes?

Challenge 5: How can policymaking be made more

sensitive to global long-term perspectives?

Challenge 6: How can the global convergence of information

and communications technologies work for everyone?

Challenge 7: How can ethical market economies

be encouraged to help reduce the gap between

rich and poor?

Challenge 8: How can the threat of new and

reemerging diseases and immune microorganisms

be reduced?

Challenge 9: How can the capacity to decide

be improved as the nature of work and

institutions change?

Challenge 10: How can shared values and new security

strategies reduce ethnic conflicts, terrorism, and the use of

weapons of mass destruction?

Challenge 11: How can the changing status of

women improve the human condition?

Challenge 13: How can growing energy demands be

met safely and efficiently?

Challenge 14: How can scientific and technological

breakthroughs be accelerated to improve the human condition?

Challenge 15: How can ethical considerations become more

routinely incorporated into global decisions?

Challenge 12: How can transnational organized crime

networks be stopped from becoming more powerful

and sophisticated global enterprises?

32 Seeds of the Future of Arts, Media, and Entertainment

Cross-Impact these 32 seeds to see what new creative industries are possible

The Creative Economy… not

Catch-up Economy

• Requires cultural/perceptual changes

– Silicon Valley example of boss and employee

– Google example of 20% paid free time – pools of creativity

– Finding markets worldwide vs. finding jobs where you live

• Builds on all South Koreans having Internet access with the processing power of

a human brain before 2020 and many more brains per person after that.

• Acts with Internet of things, and nanotech sensor nets

• Increases the changes from searching for a job, to searching for markets around

the world for individual’s capabilities.

• Changes market as the center to attract people to physical location to each

person as the center for a 2 billion person set of markets today, but 9

billion/person in 37 years.

Creative Economy Management

1. Hierarchy

2. Networks

3. Intersection of

Networks: Nodes

4. Connecting Nodes

into Fields of Play

5. Connecting Fields of Play

One-Person Businesses Find markets around the world for what you are interested in doing not non-existing jobs

Futures Research and the Miracle of South Korea’s Development

President Park Chung Hee

Herman Kahn, inventor of scenarios

for policy, talked through

development strategies with Pres.

Park over years and many visits

허먼 칸과 박정희 잦은 만남 사진출처:민주화기념사업회

2013-11-19 박영숙(사)유엔미래포럼 30

Some Elements of Next Economic System

• Capitalist and socialist/communist systems are early industrial age economic

systems

• Emerging new economic system, adapted to the globalized world and knowledge

economy

• Assessing some future elements of the next global economy

• 35 elements (not policies, events, developments, or goals)

that might help shape the next economic system over the

next 20 years:

– rated as to their importance to improving the human condition

– potential positive and negative impacts’ descriptions

– analysis of levels of agreement

Top 10 Most Beneficial Elements

by 2030 Elements Imp Resp Agr.

1 Ethics: a key element in economic exchanges 8.36 168 0.86

2 New GDP definitions that include all forms of national wealth 7.96 164 0.78

3 Small tax on use of commons directed to global public goods 7.75 172 0.83

4 Collective intelligence: global commons for the knowledge economy 7.74 155 0.88

5 Continuously updated education on the evolving economic system and its elements 7.64 154 0.83

6 Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in information dissemination

with much greater transparency. 7.61 168 0.79

7 Value of natural resources used in production included in pricing 7.56 162 0.76

8 Women’s political-economic roles essentially on par with men 7.25 182 0.68

9 Increased public disclosure of "tax havens", secret accounts 7.10 153 0.68

10 Wealth, re-defined as experience and not the accumulation of money or physical things 6.83 161 0.62

Some other Interesting Elements

• Simultaneous knowing – time lags changed or eliminated in

information dissemination with much greater transparency.

• Non-ownership, as distinct from private ownership or

collective/state ownership (e.g. current open source software)

• Alternatives to continuously creating artificial demand and growth

• One-Person Business - Self-employment via the Internet—

individuals seek markets for their abilities rather than jobs

Future of Education is Increasing Intelligence: both Individual and Collective Intelligence

How to increase Individual Intelligence

1. Responding to feedback

2. Consistency of love, diversity of environment

3. Nutrition

4. Reasoning exercises

5. Believing it is possible (placebo effect)

6. Contact with intelligent people or via VR simulations

7. Software systems and gaming

8. Neuro-pharmacology (enhanced brain chemistry)

9. Memes on classroom walls and else where, for example: intelligence is sexy

10. Low stress, stimulating environments, with certain music, color, fragrances improves concentration and performance

11. Longer term:

• Reverse engineering the brain (President Obama)

• Applied Epigenetics and genetic engineering

• Designer microbes to eat the plaque on neurons

How to Increase Collective Intelligence

• It emerges from the integration

and synergies among

• data/info/knowledge

• software/hardware

• experts and others with insight

• that continually learns from

feedback

• to produce just in time knowledge

for better decisions • than these elements acting alone.

Why the Transition to CIS?

• The velocity, volume, and complexity of change and

challenges are increasing exponentially

• Some local issues depend on global developments

• The amount of information and data is exploding

• Our work shows that humanity has the resources to address

the challenges ahead

• Will we make the necessary decisions?

• We believe collective intelligence used by trans-Institutional

networks can help

An Application of Collective Intelligence:

Global Futures Intelligence System at www.themp.org

Global Challenge Menu in GFIS

1. Situation Chart: Current Situation; Desired Situation; and Policies

2. Report (detailed text) on the challenge from State of the Future

3. News items (automatic news feeds – searchable)

4. Scanning (annotated, rated information)

5. On-going Delphi questionnaires to collect expert judgments

6. Public comments

7. Discussion groups

8. Computer models (mathematical and rules-based), and conceptual models

9. Resources: websites, books, papers, videos

10. Updates – all edits

11. Digests – Recent scans, edits, discussions

Wise to invest in a diverse set of new creative economic activities (not Panda Bear)

• Internet of things

• Increasing intelligence

• 3-D Printing

• Synthetic Biology

• Nanotechnology

• Retrofitting buildings for energy production

• Continue robotic manufacturing

• One-Person Businesses (massive training programs)

… May become a TransInstitution

UN Organizations

NGOs and

Foundations

Universities

Governments Corporations

The Millennium Project

Purposes of the Millennium Project

• Create a global and on-going capacity to improve thinking about the future

• Make that thinking available through a variety of media for consideration in

• policymaking

• advanced training

• educational curricula

• public education

• Continually respond to feedback, to accumulate wisdom about potential futures

49 Millennium Project Nodes... are groups of experts and institutions that connect global and local views in:

Nodes identify participants, translate questionnaires and reports, and conduct interviews, special research, workshops, symposiums, and advanced training.

25 years ago there was no World Wide Web.

25 years from now: What will be emerging?

And from what?

For further information

Jerome C. Glenn

The Millennium Project

4421 Garrison Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016 USA +1-202-686-5179 phone/fax

Jerome.Glenn@Millennium-Project.org

www.StateoftheFuture.org

www.themp.org (Global Futures Intelligence System)