Early warning forecast of an oil spill bp deepwater horizon in the gulf

Early Warning Forecast of an Oil Spill:

BP Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf

Teresa Howard, Casey Dietrich & Corey Trahan

The University of Texas at Austin

Texas GIS Forum

October 27, 2011

Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on May 17, 2010 at 1136 am CDT

NASA Terra MODIS May 17, 2010 at 1636 UTC

Collected by the MAGIC DBRS,

Center for Space Research, UT-Austin

2.4-meter X-Band 4.5-meter X-Band 1.5-meter S/L-Band

UT Center for Space Research DBRS Antennas at West Pickle Research

Nearshore Oil Transport : Motivation Satellite imagery can only show current location of the slick

- Where will the oil move?

- What happens if a hurricane approaches?

Forecasts need to be accurate and fast

- Share computed circulation with NOAA,

other spill modelers

- Share oil transport with emergency managers

in real time ( http://adcirc.org/oilspill )

Nearshore Oil Transport : Methods WINDS

Provided by NCEP ( http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/ )

from WRF-NMM ( http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ ),

downloaded and converted to our format.

CURRENTS Waves from SWAN ( http://swanmodel.sourceforge.net/ )

and circulation from ADCIRC ( http://www.adcirc.org/ ),

with currents provided hourly to the tracking model.

OIL TRANSPORT Waves from SWAN ( http://swanmodel.sourceforge.net/ )

and circulation from ADCIRC ( http://www.adcirc.org/ ),

with currents provided hourly to the tracking model.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS Animations posted online ( http://www.adcirc.org/oilspill/ ).

INITIAL CONDITIONS NESDIS ( http://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/ )

provided slick extents, which were

digitized and provided to the tracking model.

Prepare oil slick for particle tracking

1. Obtain oil slick extent vector polygons from NOAA NESDIS.

2. Intersect oil slick polygons with water depth boundaries: near coast, < 100 meters deep above the continental shelf, and deep ocean waters (> 100 m deep).

3. Convert oil slick polygons to raster of 50 meter grid elements with attribute initial water depth interval.

4. Convert grid elements to point vectors

5. Calculate x,y coordinates in longitude and latitude.

6. Output ASCII initial particle location file.

Validation : Mid-June

Validation : Mid-June

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 13 / 1548 UTC

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 14 / 1151 UTC ( + 20 hr / + 0.8 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 15 / 1151 UTC ( + 44 hr / + 1.8 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 16 / 0140 UTC ( + 58 hr / + 2.4 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 16 / 1555 UTC ( + 72 hr / + 3.0 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 17 / 1150 UTC ( + 92 hr / + 3.8 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 18 / 1109 UTC ( + 115 hr / + 4.8 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 18 / 1637 UTC ( + 121 hr / + 5.0 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 19 / 0341 UTC ( + 132 hr / + 5.5 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 19 / 1730 UTC ( + 148 hr / + 6.2 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 19 / 2330 UTC ( + 152 hr / + 6.3 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 20 / 1150 UTC ( + 164 hr / + 6.8 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 21 / 1613 UTC ( + 192 hr / + 8.0 d )

06/13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

2010 / 06 / 22 / 0348 UTC ( + 204 hr / + 8.5 d )

Validation : Hurricane Alex (2010) Made initial landfall in Belize

and tracked over Yucatan Peninsula

Strengthened in southern Gulf of Mexico to Category 2 storm before making landfall in Mexico

Limited useable satellite imagery

Validation : Hurricane Alex (2010)

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 06 / 29 / 0044 UTC

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 06 / 29 / 1546 UTC ( + 15 hr / + 0.6 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 06 / 29 / 2332 UTC ( + 23 hr / + 0.9 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 06 / 30 / 1155 UTC ( + 35 hr / + 1.4 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 06 / 30 / 2355 UTC ( + 47 hr / + 1.9 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 07 / 02 / 1156 UTC ( + 83 hr / + 3.4 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 07 / 02 / 1552 UTC ( + 87 hr / + 3.6 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 07 / 03 / 1156 UTC ( + 107 hr / + 4.4 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 07 / 04 / 1635 UTC ( + 136 hr / + 5.7 d )

06/29 30 07/01 02 03 04 05 06

2010 / 07 / 05 / 0008 UTC ( + 136 hr / + 5.7 d )

www.adcirc.org/oilspill

Oil transport project participants

JC Dietrich, CJ Trahan, CN Dawson Institute for Computational Engineering and

Sciences,

University of Texas at Austin

MT Howard, G Wells

Center for Space Research,


JG Fleming

Seahorse Coastal Consulting, Morehead City,

North Carolina

RJ Weaver, RA Luettich Jr

Institute of Marine Sciences,

Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

S Tanaka, JJ Westerink Dept. of Civil Engineering and Geological

Sciences,

University of Notre Dame

L Yu, A Lu Department of Computer Science,

Univ. of North Carolina at Charlotte

K Vega, A Kubach

Texas Advanced Computing Center, University

of Texas at Austin

KM Dresback, RL Kolar School of Civil Engineering and Environmental

Science,

University of Oklahoma

C Kaiser

Dept. of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences,

Louisiana State University

RR Twilley

Vice President for Research,

University of Louisiana at Lafayette

Acknowledgements: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Institute of

Marine Sciences

University of Notre Dame Computational Hydraulics Laboratory

University of Texas Computational Hydraulics Groups, ICES

University of Texas Center for Space Research

Texas Advanced Computing Center, University of Texas

NOAA/NESDIS/Satellite Analysis Branch, Experimental Marine Pollution Surveillance Program

Seahorse Coastal Consulting

Funding for this work was provided by:

National Science Foundation TeraGrid

National Science Foundation RAPID Grant—Office of Cyberinfrastructure

Department of Homeland Security Science & Technology Directorate through the Center of Excellence for Natural Disasters, Coastal Infrastructure and Emergency Management (DIEM)

NOAA IOOS Program

And now for something

entirely different….

Photo by Frank Cianciolo Sr. Program Coordinator

McDonald Obs. / Bash Visitors Center


McDonald Observatory

April 23, 2011, at 2201 CDT

Texas Wildfires

Gordon Wells, Larry Teng,

Solar Smith & Teresa Howard

UT Center for Space Research

McDonald

Observatory

Landsat 7 ETM+ April 24, 2011 at 1221 CDT

SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2 Active Fire Front

Controlled Burn

Rock House Fire: Northern Margin (April 24, 2011)

NASA Terra MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1243 CDT



Wildfires on April 15 at 1243 CDT





Rockhouse

El Bonito

La Sabina

Wildcat

PK West

Pearce Ranch

Copper Mountain

Ranch

Frying Pan

Ranch





Wildcat

PK West

Copper Mountain

Ranch


NASA Aqua MODIS April 15, 2011 at 1419 CDT







Wildcat

PK West

Copper Mountain

Ranch

McDonald

Observatory

Hobby-Eberly

Telescope

Area of the controlled

burn (4/23-24)

Active fire

front (4/24)

Rock House Fire

Burn Scar

Rock House Fire: Northern Margin Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper-Plus (4/24/11)

Landsat 7 ETM+ April 24, 2011 at 1221 CDT

Thermal/SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2 + 6

Rock House Fire on May 2 at 1217 CDT

Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper May 2, 2011 at 1217 CDT

SWIR/VNIR Channels 7,4,2

Processed by the MAGIC DBRS,


McDonald

Observatory

Fort Davis

Marfa

Roper Ranch

Fire Burn Scar

French SPOT 4 HRVIR April 29, 2011 at 1205 CDT


Collected by U.S. Air Force Eagle Vision



Deaton Cole Fire: Google Earth Display SPOT 4 HRVIR (4/29: 1300) & Terra MODIS Firepoints (4/29: 1205)




April Burn Scars

Rock House

Deaton

Cole

Bonito

La Sabina

Last Chance

PK

Complex

Wildcat

Cooper

Mountain

Swenson Killough

Aqua MODIS Firepoints

September 9, 2011 at 1449 CDT

Collected by the MAGIC DBRS

Center for Space Res., UT-Austin

Magnolia

Values = Fire Radiative Power in Megawatts

Riley Road/Crown Ranch Fire Burn Scar

Magnolia

French SPOT 4 HRVIR September 12, 2011 at 1155 CDT


Collected by U.S. Air Force Eagle Vision



Bastrop County Complex Fire GeoEye Ikonos-2 Pan/VNIR

September 8, 2011 at 1220 CDT

Texas Civil Air Patrol September 16, 2011 at 1140 CDT

Intact and destroyed residences in Tahitian Village,

Bastrop County.


Residences destroyed by ground fire.


Residence with a green yard destroyed

by ground fire.

http://magic.csr.utexas.edu/Event/11TxWildfires

John Nielson-Gammon,

State Climatologist

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2006

MODIS telemetry received and processed by the MAGIC DBRS

Center for Space Research, University of Texas at Austin


NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2007




NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2008




NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2009




NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2010




NASA Terra MODIS

August 29, 2011



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NASA MODIS thermal detections (Fire Radiative Power >1 megawatt) in Texas collected by the MAGIC DBRS,


January - September Satellite Thermal Detections, 2002-2011