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High-definition DVD Format WarsMarch 14, 2007
MANGAL DASHIMANSHU RAMCHANDANIMUDIT NIGAMMOHIT KUMAR
Strategic Computing
In recent years, high-definition (HD) television and HD optical discs entered the market
Two HD formats have appeared in the DVD market, both claiming to be the rightful successor to the DVD throne: Blu-ray (developed by Sony/Phillips) HD DVD (developed by Toshiba)
Measured by most performance metrics these two technologies are the same, except that Blu-ray has significantly larger capacity (66%). However, Blu-ray appears to have greater network
support
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While the format war rages on, entirely different outcomes are possible: LG has introduced a dual-format player and
drive Internet may replace the DVD as a movie
delivery vehicle
International view: Japan (96% Blu-ray), Europe (pushing for open licensing of both formats), China (proprietary HD format), India (small $ market), South America (unknown); Xbox 360 but still no PS3)
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Before HD, IBM arbitrated a standard DVD format intended to avoid a format war, but the outcome favored Toshiba regarding royalties, leaving Sony unhappy
In response, Sony began developing the next generation of high-definition optical media Toshiba followed suit with its own HD technology While there were many “peace talks”, neither
party reached agreement
Comparison: VHS vs. Betamax War Despite Beta’s superior quality, VHS won the war
because of its strong “content” network
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Certain format wars were never won, but instead compromised with the introduction of multi-format technology
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DVD-R vs. DVD+R– Multi-format DVD drives accommodate both
CDMA vs. GSM– Can make/receive calls regardless of technology– Both prevalent around the world
Flash Memory Formats– Over 50 different kinds of flash memory– All-in-one readers handle most types
Most performance metrics of these two technologies are the same
Blu-ray storage capacity is more practical for HD movies One high-definition movie (~20GB) fits on just one Blu-ray layer
(25GB); while HD DVD requires two layers (2x 15GB)
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Blu-ray HD DVDStorage
(single layer)25GB (5 hrs of HD video) 15GB (2 hrs of HD video)
Storage
(dual layer)50GB (9 hrs of HD video) 30GB (5 hrs of HD video)
Cost/Disc* ~$1.59 ~$1.45
Cost/GB* ~$0.064 ~$0.097
Disc Player Price
$500 (PS3) - $1000 $500 - $800
* Sources: ProActionMedia, WesleyTech; single layer.
While both formats have support from various large companies, Blu-ray has greater support from content providers that are critical to achieving a network effect
Consumers will follow the format of the CONTENT providers
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Blu-ray HD DVD
Content Network
20th Century Fox, Apple, Dell, Disney, LG, Lion’s Gate, Paramount, Philips, Sony (Columbia and MGM), Warner
Paramount, Universal, Warner
Player Network LG, Phillips, Samsung, Sony LG, RCA, Toshiba
Gaming NetworkSony PS3 (integrated), Electronic Arts (EA)
Microsoft Xbox 360 (external)
Digital Rights Management Blu-ray promises BD+, which
allows encryption keys to be modified when they are hacked
AACS is the copy protection scheme used by both HD DVD & Blu-ray. Took years to develop, but broken in weeks
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Blu-ray more prone to error due to high aperture
Without protective hard-coating, Blu-ray is easier to scratch (data layer is closer to surface)
Disc Aperture Settings
DVD 0.6
HD DVD 0.65
Blu-ray 0.85
Sales trends illustrate Blu-ray gaining dominant market share
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Availability of Hardware (players) Blu-ray (with PS3) : HD DVD =
5 : 1 Blu-ray sales up 700% since
the launch of PS3 and other players 687,000 PS3 sold in US
Availability of Content 19 of the “Top 20” DVDs in
2006 were released by studios supporting Blu-ray
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HD OpticalDisc Format
Competitors Complementors
Customers
Suppliers
Disc Replicators / Factories
Machinery Providers
Entertainment Industry
HDTV
Media Players
Game Consoles
Consumers
Retailers / Distributors
Licensees
Internet
VHS
TV
On Demand (VOD)
Flash Memory
There are several players in determining a dominant network However “Content is King” and will largely determine the victor
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ESTIMATED ANNUAL REVENUE 2006 IN U.S.
$3.6 Billion
$12.5 Billion
$35 Billion
Key players with influence in the format war between HD DVD and Blu-ray: the film industry, the adult film industry, and the video game industry
Video Game Industry
Film Industry
Adult Film IndustryXXX
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“The Look and Sound of Perfect” $150M advertising campaign
Xbox 360 supports external HD DVD player
Pornography industry experimenting with HD DVD
“War is Over” advertising campaign
PS3 internal Blu-ray player
Sony cutting player prices from $1K to less than $500
Future Blu-ray car players
HD DVD Blu-ray
Blu-ray has adopted a “pre-emptive strike” marketing strategy with its “War is Over” advertising campaign
What are the drivers that will determine the future of this format war?
Economic Performance Regulatory
Content – Blu-ray has greater support
Price – Similar pricing
Complementors - HDTV supports both formats
International View – Japan sided with Blu-ray
Storage Capacity – Blu-ray greater capacity
Security – Promising dynamic BD+ encryption
Durability – Blu-ray offers proprietary coating to prevents scratching
Associations - Blu-ray, BDA; HD DVD, DVD Forum
Europe –European Commission (EC) seeking open technology
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Resolution (NTSC) 640 x 480i
pixels Audio – Stereo,
44kHz
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Resolutions
– 1920 x 1080p
– 1920 x 1080i
– 1280 x 720p Audio - AC-3: 48 kHz
sampling rate, up to 8 channels, up to 18 Mbit/s
Standard High Definition
TV remains the Limiting Factor for the time being
– High-definition provides far superior resolution; however, without HD televisions the improvement in quality will go unnoticed.
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HD TVs expected to increase from 4M HHs in 2006 to 52M HHs in 2009
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With the PS3, Blu-ray is quickly approaching the chasm…
…but HD-DVD is lagging behind.
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Dual-disc / Dual-player LG Super Multi Blue Player and Drive
– Supports playback of both formats
– Available now for $1,199
Warner Bros. Total HD
– Single disc compatible with both players
– Available 3Q 2007
– Costs marginally more than current discs
Internet / Flash Internet/flash memory may replace DVDs as the dominant media
delivery vehicle for movies “DVD format will be irrelevant” – Bill Gates … may be replaced by flash
memory or Internet
Blu-ray is positioned to win the format war because Stronger sales in the US and Japan Larger studio network providing film content (promise of
superior security BD+) PS3 integrated Blu-ray players Larger capacity of 25GB (vs 15GB)
Questions & Answers
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