Dr Harry Woodroof: Introduction to Horizon Scanning

Horizon Scanning

Harry Woodroof, PhD FRSADstl Horizon Scanning Team

[email protected]

Library & Information Science Research Coalition

Developing Research Excellence and Methods

(DREaM) workshop

Edinburgh 25 April 2012

© Crown Copyright 2012. Published with the permission of the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory on behalf of the Controller of HMSO. Dstl publication reference: DSTL/ PUB63411.

mailto:[email protected]

Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence

Horizon Scanning: the rationale

• The future is uncertain.

• All decisions are made (in the present) about the future.

• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use information (in the present) about the future.

Horizon Scanning can help!

© Crown Copyright Dstl 2012

Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence© Crown Copyright Dstl 2012

Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl)• Agency of Ministry of Defence

• >3,900 staff – civil servants

– >70% scientists, engineers, analysts

• “Maximising the impact of Science & Technology (S&T) on UK Defence and Security

• ….. and understand S&T risks and opportunities through horizon scanning”

• S&T Horizon Scanning team of eight (most part-time)

• Also Social, Economic, Environmental, Political futures


Horizon Scanning Centresmaller projects, entire policy spectrum

Prime Minister and Cabinet

Professor Sir John Beddington, CMG, FRSGovernment Chief Scientific Adviser and Head of GO-Science

Government Office for Science(GO-Science)

SocialTechnicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical

strategy

The Foresight Programme (as in 2009)

Foresight projects(large (18 months), science-focussed)


http://www.sciencemuseum.org.uk/antenna/fishing/images/john.jpg


Horizon scanning – a definition

“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning.

Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends.”

Chief Scientific Advisers Committee (CSAC) 09/04



what we know

We k

now

Answered questions

Libraries

Maintenance is key

The ‘knowledge mix’ in a research organisation W

e d

on

’t k

now Unrecognised

answersExperiencewe don’t recognise,Internal connectivity is key

what we don’t know

Unanswered questionsResearch Programme Access is key

Unasked questions

To ask what if?Requires external stimulus or interventionExposure to risk

HorizonScanning


Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence10 April 2023



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Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence8

The “evidence-based policy” paradox

• Policy is about solutions for the future

• But conventional “evidence” is about the past



Four (of many) approaches to preparing for the future

• Expert views

• Extrapolations


Common. (Deeply(?)) unsatisfactory

Horizon Scanning

More complexCostlier(Hopefully(!)) morehelpful

• Scan www e.g. Dstl approach (S&T only)

• “Scan of Scans” + people e.g. HSC Sigma Scan


The problem with expert predictions

• "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers" – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943• "640K ought to be enough for anybody" – Bill Gates, Microsoft• “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously

considered as a means of communication” – Western Union memo• "It will be years – not in my time – before a woman will become

Prime Minister" – Margaret Thatcher, 1974 • "Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high

plateau" – Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University, 1929 • “Everything that can be invented has been invented." – Charles

H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899 [urban legend]



Individual experts - 2

• Philip Tetlock: “Expert Political Judgement: How Good Is It?,” 2005– 20-year study of 28000 predictions by 284 pundit, political academics and theorists

• Experts barely did better than random guesses– Very basic computer models did far better

• More prominent the pundit; the worse the estimate– Usually did better making political predictions outside their area of greatest expertise

• Experts tend to attach great importance to things they know about – even if these are not critical to the outcome

Slide based on Opinion Piece by Daniel Finkelstein. The Times. 04 Jan 12.



Use groups of experts?

• Seek consensus amongst experts– Doesn’t always exist – especially at margins of a discipline or

issue

– Especially about the future!

– Not the complete solution



The dangers of linear extrapolation

Time

Prediction Reality

Time

Futures

“Precisely wrong”

“Imprecisely right”


Time


Science & Technology horizon scanning in Dstl



Uses of S&T horizon scanning in Dstl

“ Dstl seeks to ……understand science and technology risks and opportunities through horizon-scanning”.

National Security through Technology: Technology, Equipment and Support for UK Defence and Security. Cm 8278. Feb 12

IN ORDER TO:

– Prioritise R&D programmes

– Inform strategic Corporate Planning

– Improve the Return on Investment in R&D



Dstl S&T horizon scanning


…….is contained (reasonably completely) in the content of the WWW

The current state of human knowledge about non-defence S&T developments…….

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b9/WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png/220px-WorldWideWebAroundWikipedia.png


Dstl S&T horizon scanning: examples of web sources used

Category ExamplesPopular science New Scientist, Science Daily, Physorg (aggregators),

Technovelgy…

News BBC S&T, ABC (US and Australia), The Indian…

Online journals RSC, Nature, Science, Web of Knowledge (aggregators)…

Government Labs Argonne, NIST (US and Japan), CSIRO (Australia)…

Research Councils MRC, NERC, ESPRC…

Academia MIT (Technology Review), Harvard, Queensland, Imperial…

Blogs New Scientist, Wired, Technorati (search engine)…

E-print servers ARXIV, PLoS (open access), Sciences preprint…

Protoscience Scifiblog, DVICE, …

Patents Derwent II, Espacenet, Inventorspot…

Specialist sites Nanotechnology Now, Alternative Energy News, Medgadget…

360°

hor

izon


list of >500 sources


Dstl S&T horizon scanning:scanning not searching

• In searching, we describe what is (likely to be) interesting before we retrieve it.

• In scanning, we realise what’s interesting after we’ve retrieved it.

• The key challenge is then to turn a search engine into a scanning engine.



Dstl S&T horizon scanning:searching for excitement

revolutionary unprecedented world’s first first time orders of magnitude paradigm previously impossible

Look for developments containing, e.g…


ground-breaking paves the way close to reality breakthrough …… ……

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/1171409

http://www.sxc.hu/photo/520993


‘Sentiment searching’ on WWW

“INNOVATIVE BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “MAJOR BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “MUCH-NEEDED BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REAL BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “RECENT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “REVOLUTIONARY BREAKTHROUGH*”OR “SIGNIFICANT BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “TECHNOLOGICAL BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “TECHNOLOGY BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH DISCOVERY” OR “BREAKTHROUGH IDEAS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH RESULT” OR “BREAKTHROUGH REVEALS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH SCIENC*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOG*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH THINKING” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* CAN DELIVER” OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR BASIC” OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR APPLIED” OR “POSSIBLE BREAKTHROUGH*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* USING NEW” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN FUTURE”OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN QUALITY” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* IN SCIENC*” OR “BREAKTHROUGH KEY ENABLERS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH* TO HARNESS” OR “BREAKTHROUGH FOR UNDERSTANDING”


Dstl web-scanning for sentiment:possible limitations


ScopeSocialTechnologicalEconomicEnvironmentalPolitical

?

√???

Currency Time to publish

Access To what’s not web-published


Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political (STEEP)

Horizon Scanning in Government Office for Science

Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre



Scanningof

scans

Scanningof

scans

Gap analysis

Gap analysis

e-databaseSigma Scan

e-databaseSigma Scan

Secondary Analysis

inc.weak signals

Secondary Analysis

inc.weak signals

ResponseTesting

ResponseTesting

New HS research

New HS research

Peer reviewPeer review

ExpertInputs

ExpertInputs

HSC methodology:a “Scan of Scans”



Adam Smith Institute

Arlington Institute

Atlantic Monthly

Brookings Institution

Cato Center for Trade Policy Studies

Centre for European Reform

Centre for Strategic and International Studies

Chatham House

Foreign Affairs

Hoover Digest

Independent Commission on Population and Quality of Life

Institut de Recherche en Politiques Publiques

Institute for Fiscal Studies

British Social Attitudes Survey

Centre for Environmental Research, Columbia University

e-Living (EC 5FP) Project

ESRC Centre for Business Research,

Institute of Development Studies

Los Angeles Law Review

Policy Studies Review

Russian Journal, The

Science

Science and Public Policy

World Values Survey

the top Horizon Scan sources

global coverage

both ‘traditional’ and ‘unconventional’

Europe 2020

Future of Work

Futures

Futurist

Institute for the Future

McKinsey Global Institute

MORI Polls

Shaping Tomorrow

Shell Global Scenarios

Siemens Horizons

SRI Consulting

World Future Society

Think tanks

Academic publications

Mainstream media

Central Intelligence Agency (US)

Commonwealth Secretariat

Competition Commission

DEFRA Baseline Scan

DEFRA Forward Look

Department for Culture, Media and Sport

Department for International Development

Department for Work and Pensions

Department of Education (US)

Department of Health

Department of Justice (US)

Department of Labor (US)

Corporate Foresight

Expert/Strategic thinkers

Government sources

Alternative journals

Amnesty International

Board of Deputies of British Jews

British Council

Countryside Alliance

International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement

Make Poverty History campaign

Muslim Council of Britain

Oxfam

Trade Union Congress

World Health Organization

World Trade Organization

Institute for Public Policy Research

Charities/NGOs

Blog sites

Minority communities

Futurologists

SIGMA Scan: scan of scans: >250 papers: STEEP-wide



The Horizon Scanning Centre’s Sigma Scan: www.sigmascan.org


Homepage: accessed 30 Mar 12

Dstl is part of the Ministry of Defence26

Social, Economic, Environmental,

Political

• Right to live: right to die?• Global courting : the

supremacy of international law• Increase in e-commuting• UK rules OK : isolationist

Britain• End of public broadcasting• Ghettoisation of minority

populations• Landfill capacity limits reached• Economic impact of ageing• The “rights” of robots• Corrupting aid flows• ………………….

S&T

• Active biomaterials for regenerative medicine

• Quantum chemistry for pollution abatement

• Nanowire sensors for DNA testing

• Advent of molecular archaeology

• Computing on the human platform

• Solar: the energy wild-card• From ink-jet printing to

personal fabrication• Brazil’s expanding tech.

sector• ………………….

Sigma Scan: example topics



The rationale

• The future is uncertain.

• All decisions are made about the future.

• Therefore, decision-makers need to get and use information about the future.

Horizon Scanning can help!




UK National Security Strategy, Jun 09

Chapter 4: The UK Government’s Approach to National Security: interests, planning assumptions and organisation

4.1 “This chapter sets out how we apply the principles and Strategic Framework discussed in Chapter 3 to the particular interests and concerns of the United Kingdom and its people. Drawing on an assessment of these interests, and our work on horizon scanning about the future development of threats and drivers ………..”



EMERGING TRENDS IN THE SCIENCE BASEHorizon scanning5.15 The previous section concluded

“Horizon scanning is a vital tool”


Some other uses of horizon scanning in Govt.• “….. guarding against technological surprise through

horizon scanning”. Equipment, Support, and Technology for UK Defence and Security: A Consultation Paper. Cm 7989. Dec 10

• Threat Identification

• Prioritisation of R&D programmes

• Departmental and other strategies

