Does Your App Really Solve a Problem?

Does Your App Really Solve a

Problem?!

@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Hello!!I’m @ArtfulGeek!

@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Apps in Perspective!•  June 29, 2007 – iPhone release.!•  July 10, 2008 - App Store launched by

Apple.!•  January 22, 2011 – 10 billionth app

download.!•  May 2013 – 50 billion apps

downloaded*!* Wired.com: “Someone out there just won a $10,000 iTunes gift card, Apple’s way of saying “Thanks” for downloading its 50 billionth iOS app.”

@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Big Sea of Change!

• 147% increase in smartphone owners from 2008.!

• Today, almost a billion people own smartphones.!


The Future…!

•  IDC forecasts 1.5 billion smartphones by 2017.!• Expected steady 10% annual

growth rate.!• Estimated 260% growth in

application store revenues.!http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/global-smartphone-market-growth-estimates-vary-among-research-firms/2013-06-03! @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Problems. Ideas.Apps.!


Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!


Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!


The Old!


The New!


“I found spam intolerable ... And it turns out that was all you needed to solve the problem. The algorithm I used was ridiculously simple. Anyone who'd really tried to solve the problem would have found it. It was just that no one had really tried to solve the problem.”

- Paul Graham

h"p://paulgraham.com/ideas.html @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

What Makes an App Successful?

"The equation for success is pretty simple... find a problem to solve (or a solution to improve) that's relevant to a massive amount of people. Then remember that the problem your solving is for these people and make it easy for them to use."

http://www.quora.com/How-did-Mint-acquire-1-0m+-users-without-a-high-viral-coefficient-scalable-SEO-strategy-or-paid-customer-acquisition-channel @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Ideas: The Good!

Credit: Grilled Cheese Social @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Credit: Discovery Health

Ideas: The Good!


Cheetos lip balm!

Credit: BookOfJoe

Ideas: The Bad!


Whole chicken in a can!

Credit: FlickR

Ideas: The Ugly!


•  Inadequate market estimation and research.!• Swallowed by competition or

entry by giants.!•  Ineffective distribution

model.!•  Inability to scale.!

• Missed a stroke of luck…!

Why Do Good App Ideas Fail?!


Spoiler Alert: It’s Competitive.!


Evaluating Your Ideas.!


• What problem does it solve?!•  Is there a market? What is its

size?!•  Is there sufficient demand?!•  Is there a secret weapon

against the competition?!

Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!


•  Is there an economy of scale?!• Do you have sufficient time to

market advantage? Will you get eaten by a giant?!• Distribution model and

marketing strategy.!

Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!


“It suddenly occurred to me that the hottest tech start-ups are solving all the problems of being twenty years old, with cash on hand, because that's who thinks them up.”

-  George Packer, The New Yorker, May 2013.


Value vs Problem!


!Problem solving is important, but so is opportunity and value.!

Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!


!Wrong problems and right problems.!

Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!


Wander App!


Is There a Market?!

Credit: MarkeDng Technology Landscape, via ChiefMartec.com @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Simple equation!

Market Size =!Price Point x !Number of Buyers!

What Is The Market Size?!


Angry Birds!2 billion downloads x $0.99!!Minecraft!10 million downloads x $6.99!

Market Size Estimation!


Market Size!

Adapted from B. Srinivasan and V. Pande @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

• Fermi estimates (top-down market sizing)!!“How many piano tuners are there in !Chicago?”

!• Sum up empirical revenue

figures for competitors !!(SEC filings)!

Market Size Estimation!


Facebook Advertiser Tools!Real time census for demographical estimates.!

Market Research!


Google Adwords Keyword Planner!Search volumes for keywords.!

Market Research!


Is There Demand?!


“A game-changer in the world of social networking”!!AppAdvice, NYT,!Mashable.!

Foreca.st!


If the concept is novel, can demand be created and fostered?!

Demand!


Illusions of Demand!


Is There Room For Your Idea?!


Is There Room For Your Idea?!

Spork!


Do you have sufficient time to market advantage?!

Spork!


Could It Get !Eaten By !A Giant?!


• How do you get your app in the hands of The Market?!• Can you leverage virality?!• Can your marketing budget

help achieve this?!

Distribution Model.!Marketing Strategy.!



Credit: h"p://www.viralblog.com/research-‐cases/how-‐hotmail-‐became-‐a-‐viral-‐hit-‐once/

•  In the 90s, people paid for Internet + one ISP based e-mail address. !

•  Enter Hotmail. People could now access their account from any computer in the world.!

•  With no extra cost per email address! !

= Thousands of sign-ups every day.!

The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!

Hotmail spent only $500,000 to gain 12 million users in 2 years, while its early competitors spent $20 million to attract less than half of that.!!

The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!


The Virality Equation

U(t) = (Np)t/τ

N = Number of people shared with p = probability that people decide to share τ= Time interval between shares

•  Np must be > 1!•  It’s a lot easier to increase N than p!•  Decreasing τresults in non-linear

growth, due to exponential factor.!@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013

Potential Economy of Scale?!


An Idea Evaluation Model!


“The way to get good ideas is to get lots of ideas and throw the bad ones away.”

– Linus Pauling


Questions?!
