Disruptive Technologies Explained

Disruptive Technologies:Explained

An archestra notebook

© 2013 Malcolm Ryder / archestra

WHAT ARE THE DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES LOOMING BEFORE US?

We know many of them, but the answer is “it depends”…

What is a “technology”

Any item designed specifically to be a tool used in a prescribed method of production.

What will they disrupt, and Why?

Frost & Sullivan 50th Anniversary: 50 Emerging/Disruptive Technologies

1. Accelerated carbonation technology 2. Biomass-to-renewable oil conversion technology 3. Microchannel process technology 4. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology 5. Breathable antibacterial coatings, products 6. Plastic conversion to oil by gasolysis7. Algal-based platform for production of a wide variety of chemicals 8. Destagnation and destratification of water 9. Non-woven coating spray-on technology 10. Artificial photosynthesis 11. BPA-free epoxy lining of plastic bottles 12. Hydrogen storage technology 13. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing

carbon monoxide 14. Mini-chromosome gene stacking technology 15. Nanoparticles for use as anti-viral agents or "nanoviricides" 16. Substitute pancreas for diabetics using stem cells 17. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors 18. Energy harvesting 19. Wearable sensors 20. Fiber optic sensor for security 21. Structural health monitoring sensors 22. Intelligent robots 23. Flexible electronics 24. 3D integration 25. Smart grid networks

26. Mobile projection systems 27. Advanced storage technologies (MRAM/PCM) 28. Hyperspectral imaging 29. Haptics and touch technology 30. Energy-efficient lighting technologies 31. EUV for higher transistor density 32. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD) 33. Reconfigurable manufacturing systems 34. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies 35. Machine vision systems 36. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles 37. Inductive wireless power transfer 38. 3D cell culture systems 39. Personalized medicine therapeutics 40. Dendritic cell therapy 41. Vaccines for infectious disease and cancer 42. High-throughput sequencing technology 43. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution 44. Quantum computing 45. Energy management and carbon accounting systems 46. Fuel cell technology 47. Sea water desalination technologies 48. Green building technologies 49. Carbon-fixing technologies 50. Medical imaging technology

Four broad categories (per M. Ryder / archestra): Computing & Machines -- Device Controls, Manufacturing and Infrastructure

Health & Ecosystems -- Alternative & Renewable Energy

Computing & Machines

1. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology

2. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors

3. Fiber optic sensor for security

4. Intelligent robots

5. Flexible electronics

6. 3D integration

7. Smart grid networks

8. Advanced storage technologies (MRAM/PCM)

9. EUV lithography for higher transistor density

10. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD)

11. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies

12. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution

13. Quantum computing

Things we make that make other

things…

List Credit: Frost & SullivanCategorization: archestra, for discussion purposes only

Device Controls, Manufacturing & Infrastructure

1. Wireless sensors and ubiquitous sensors

2. Wearable sensors

3. Mobile projection systems

4. Haptics and touch technology

5. Energy-efficient variable frequency drives (VFD)

6. Reconfigurable manufacturing systems

7. Micro and nano manufacturing technologies

8. Machine vision systems

9. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles

10. Inductive wireless power transfer

11. The infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) solution

Things that control what other things

do…


Alternative and Renewable Energy

1. Biomass-to-renewable oil conversion technology

2. Microchannel process technology

3. Carbide-derived carbon (CDC) technology

4. Plastic conversion to oil by gasolysis

5. Algal-based platform for production of a wide variety of chemicals

6. Artificial photosynthesis

7. Hydrogen storage technology

8. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing carbon monoxide

9. Energy harvesting

10. Energy-efficient lighting technologies

11. Charging infrastructure for electric vehicles

12. Inductive wireless power transfer

13. Energy management and carbon accounting systems

14. Fuel cell technology

15. Carbon-fixing technologies

How to feed things that do other things…


Health and Ecosystems1. Accelerated carbonation technology

2. Breathable antibacterial coatings, products

3. Destagnation and destratification of water

4. Non-woven coating spray-on technology

5. BPA-free epoxy lining of plastic bottles

6. Production of liquid biofuel from industrial waste gases containing carbon monoxide

7. Mini-chromosome gene stacking technology

8. Nanoparticles for use as anti-viral agents or "nanoviricides"

9. Substitute pancreas for diabetics using stem cells

10. Wearable sensors

11. Structural health monitoring sensors

12. Hyperspectral imaging

13. 3D cell culture systems

14. Personalized medicine therapeutics

15. Dendritic cell therapy

16. Vaccines for infectious disease and cancer

17. High-throughput sequencing technology

18. Sea water desalination technologies

19. Green building technologies

20. Medical imaging technology

Things for making or recovering

environments …


Things we make that make other

things…

Things that control what other things

do…

How to feed things that do other things…

Things for making or recovering

environments …

In the F&S 50, it turns out there are generic areas of experimentation and production worth monitoring … areas that also start to show a logic for being loosely coupled

One can argue about specifics, and there are overlaps, but the “trend” generally holds.

The importance of finding and aligning such groupings is that it suggests a way to explain why even disparate developments may relate to each other, possibly even inciting additional new developments to fill “gaps”

It is plausible that technology-based disruptions of some general kinds can be strongly anticipated, if not yet specifically forecast.

This doesn’t make them less disruptive, but it can make discovered disruptions more manageable after the fact, while also increasing the chances of disruption being premeditated for one’s own purposes.

In other words…

What happens when a technology disrupts markets and business?

• What does a technology do in a market?– Power the market operations

• Communications

• Search

• Transactions

– Create a different market• Enable a location for a market

• Access to a market

• Access to a deliverable

– Provide something to sell that grows a market • Nano and digital products

Three kinds of impact

What happens when a technology disrupts markets and business?

• What do markets do?– Connect sellers (businesses) with buyers (consumers)

• What does business do?– Connect suppliers (resources) with producers (providers)

• Can a disruptive technology affect a market and a business? Yes…– Each, concurrently but differently– Each, simultaneously and similarly– Chain reaction: affect one, which then affects the other

What is actually disrupted?

An existing system. It has several vulnerabilities:

1. Dominance

2. Equilibrium

3. Momentum (Self-fulfilling expectations)

3. Initial conditions: will introducing a new factor into the system’s ecology trigger “the butterfly effect” -- a chaotic chain reaction of dynamics, or a systematic generation of an unpredictable future?

2. Tipping points: when is a new factor in the environment likely to be “the last straw” burdening the prior equilibrium? Is there some element of the system that is reaching critical mass?

1. Outliers: what unexpected factor carrying an extreme 'impact' will arrive that, in hindsight only, will seem to have been always probable? Beforehand, nothing in the past convincingly pointed to its possibility.

Is disruption destructive, or constructive?

• Define disruption– An intervening or disintegrating impact on a current

arrangement, structure or flow

• What is destroyed– Value of current system behavior is obsoleted by an

alternative

– Efficacy of current system is interrupted by an intervener

• What is built– Expansion in range of types of Opportunity

– Evolutionary survival Advantage

Some crucial disruptive technologies

• Broadband (access)

– Malware

– IPv

• Virtual currency (liquidity)

– Bitcoin

• Location services (closest distributor)

– GPS

– Cellular radio

• Powerplants (portability and continuity)

– Fuel cells

Note that we get used to disruption very rapidly… They just become part of the

next “normal”…

WHAT IS THE SYSTEM THAT IS BEING DISRUPTED?

The system is a set of Relational, Environmental, Cultural and Industrial arrangements in Markets vs. Businesses.

These arrangements are subject to disruption.

Disruption areas include variables

Markets (Companies & Consumers)

• Relational disruptions

– Access channels

– Delivery systems

– Dis-intermediated buying

• Environmental disruptions

– Production Locations

– Renewability

– Resources

Businesses(Resources & Providers)

• Cultural disruptions

– Political compatibility

– Regulations

– Preferences

• Industrial disruptions

– Contracts

– Supply chain

– Automation

A Lineup of Influence Strategies

Relational

(dis-intermediate and expand buying)

Cultural

(find and/or change deliverables per preferences)

Environmental

(make with better resources)

Industrial

(increase production automation at lower cost)

e.g. Google adsenseSocial networks

e.g. iTunesAmazonVoIP

e.g. PriusSolar power

e.g. Flash drivesRoboticsNanotech

As seen here, certain variables can be exploited to create disruptions with profound levels of impact. A company may attempt to leverage any number of the key variables. It may even pursue an integratedset of multiple strategies for just one product…

Key System Drivers and DynamicsMarkets (Companies & Consumers)

• Sellers (Companies)– Motives

– Choices

– Capacity

• Buyers (Consumers)– Desires

– Expectations

– Tolerances

Businesses(Resources & Providers)

• Producers (Providers)– Skills

– Methods

• Suppliers (Resources)– Inventory

– R&D

Each point above is also a candidate variable for provoking a disruptive change.

The system’s Drivers and Dynamics are exercised by Roles that manage the intersection of Market and Business interests.

• Sellers and Producers interact through the Operation Partner role and its interests.

• Sellers and Suppliers interact through the Product Partner role and its interests.

• Buyers and Producers interact through the Manufacturer role and its interests.

• Buyers and Suppliers interact through the Source role and its interests.

Key System Roles

Commerce: The “System”Relational, Cultural, Environmental, and Industrial arrangements

Markets

Business

Sellers (Companies)• Motives• Choices• Capacity

Buyers (Consumers)• Desires• Expectations• Tolerances

Producers (Providers)• Skills• Methods

Operation Partners• Agility• Logistics

Suppliers (Resources)• Inventory• R&D

Product Partners• Cost• Scale

cultu

ral

ind

ust

rial

relational

Sources• Values

• Ethics• Tastes• Safety

Manufacturers• Reliability

• Quality• Variety

environmental

©2

01

3 M

alcolm

Ryd

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estra

Responding to Disruptions

“Markets” assume that special information is available, about the deliverability of preferred products and services that can be produced with: relatively advantaged methods; on a repeated basis and frequency; during a given time period.

Technology can create, fortify, or alter every differentiator in that assumption -- for better or worse.

Awareness of those impacts causes the need to decide how to fit into any oncoming system re-alignment provoked by the impacts.

In make-or-break scenarios, a company can invest in getting its way on the makes, and/or in protecting itself from the breaks, generated by the impact of technology’s influence.

A successful response can depend on breaking through to a new position.

Bottlenecks and Balancing points

• Markets– Relational

• e.g., power curves and value of the long tail

– Environmental• e.g., Energy and Resource costs

• Businesses– Cultural

• e.g., Information access and transparency

– Industrial• e.g., Supply chains

Sellers (Companies) & Buyers (Consumers)

Suppliers (Resources) & Producers (Providers)

A successful response can depend on breaking through to a new position.

Example System Disrupters: Business Strategies

Cultural strategy:

Find and change preferences

• Information access & transparency– Speech recognition

– Text translation

– Digital video / VoIP

– Cloud data

Many new technologies become disruptive within a given strategy.

Industrial strategy:

Increase production automation at lower cost

• Supply Chains– 3-D printing– A.I.– Microchips

• Graphene / Carbon nanotubes• Extreme UV lithography

(stretch)

Example System Disrupters: Market Strategies

Relational strategy:

Dis-intermediate and expand buying

• Power curves and value of the long tail– Neural networks / machine

learning

Many new technologies become disruptive within a given strategy.

• Energy and Materials Costs– Outer space manufacturing

– Energy storage

Environmental strategy:

Build with new resources

The systems view of Disruption

• Disruptive Technology is a phenomenon that occurs within the system of commerce.

• The system model allows key drivers, dynamics and interests to be identified as areas or points of variability and change.

• Most changes can be located and understood, or even theorized, as exceptions, thresholds, or catalysts in the system.

• Companies premeditating or adjusting to change can strategically analyze their options by navigating the model.

• Changes in the system will involve predictable basic roles that exercise the market and business interactions of sellers, buyers, producers and suppliers.