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Trends in agricultural productivity in the EU
(and a comparison with the USA)
Presentation on the workshop
“The outlook for EU agriculture: Causes, constraints and challenges for productivity”,
organized by ECPA, FERTILIZERS EUROPE and COPA-COGEGA,
Brussels, June 29, 2011
Dieter Kirschke
Humboldt University of Berlin
2/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Problem setting
Definitions and theoretical background
Productivity trends in EU agriculture
Productivity and the world food equation
Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy?
Contents
3/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Problem setting
Productivity in “traditional” agricultural policy-making
Productivity under the “treadmill”:
Changing policy objectives and priorities
Productivity under the new “price boom”
Is it time to rediscover productivity
as a key driver of agriculture
and important policy objective?
4/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Definitions and theoretical background
Productivity
Land productivity
Labor productivity
Total factor productivity
Output y d dy dx
Input x y x
d dy dLAND
y LAND
d dy dLABOR
y LABOR
ni
i
i 1 i
d dy dINPUT
y INPUT
– production elasticity / cost share
5/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Land productivity development in wheat production
in selected EU member states, 1961-2009, in t/ha
Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011C).
y = 3,1289e0,0227x
0
3
6
9
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Germany
y = 2,0696e0,0119x
0
3
6
9
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Italy
y = 2,8445e0,0259x
0
3
6
9
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
France
y = 1,0572e0,023x
0
3
6
9
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Spain
6/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Land productivity development in wheat production
in selected regions of the world, 1961-2009, in t/ha
Source: Own figure based on FAO (2011C).
y = 2,0406e0,0268x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
European Union
y = 1,6464e0,0114x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
Northern America
y = 1,095e0,0172x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
South America
y = 0,9056e0,0273x
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Asia
7/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Value added in agriculture per worker in selected
EU member states, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD
Source: Own figure based on WORLD BANK (2011).
y = 7326,4e0,0493x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Germany
y = 6183,7e0,0557x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Italy
y = 10718e0,0574x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
France
y = 4718e0,0549x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Spain
8/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Value added in agriculture per worker in selected
world regions, 1980-2009, in real 2000 USD
Source: Own figure based on WORLD BANK (2011).
y = 6159,9e0,0325x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
European Union
y = 236,17e0,0273x
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
East Asia & Pacific
y = 12212e0,0461x
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Northern America
y = 1718,7e0,022x
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
19
80
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
Latin America & Caribbean
9/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Total factor productivity growth by region,
average annual growth rate, in percent
Source: FUGLIE (2008).
Average annual growth rate (%)
by period
TFP index
1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2006
World 0.60 0.94 1.60 1.55
Developed countries 1.62 1.48 2.25 1.76
Developing countries 0.55 1.67 2.31 2.08
USSR & Eastern Europe –0.46 0.27 1.59 2.10
Western Europe 1.46 1.65 1.97 1.39
North America 1.46 1.36 2.13 1.75
Latin America & Carribean 0.61 1.30 2.38 2.48
Brazil –0.54 3.13 3.00 3.66
Northeast Asia, developing 0.51 2.57 4.00 3.42
China –0.19 2.47 3.78 3.22
South Asia 0.66 2.02 1.71 1.36
India 0.80 2.10 1.74 1.43
10/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Total Factor Productivity accounts for a rising share
of agricultural growth over time
Source: FUGLIE (2010A).
Average annual output growth rate (percent)
11/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Is there a slowing down of productivity growth?
The World Bank (WDR 2008) has initiated the debate.
Some arguments:
Public R&D funding:
– Slowing down
– Priority change
EU policy and regulatory framework:
– Extensification
– GMO policy
Global aspects
– Land availability
– Use of marginal land
– Resource degradation / soil erosion
12/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Energy
price
QS
= QD
Food + QD
Feed + QD
Fiber + QD
Fuel
Productivity
growth
Demand in
emerging markets
1
3
Productivity and the world food equation (I)
2
s d
dp 1 dT dPOP dY
p T POP Y
with p – price, – supply elasticity, – demand elasticity, – income elasticity
T – technology factor, POP – population factor, Y – income
s d
13/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Emissions of CO2-eqivalents in EU agriculture
Source: LESSCHEN ET AL. (2011).
14/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Climate
change
Bioenergy
policy
Env./climate
protection
5
Productivity and the world food equation (II)
Energy
price
QS
= QD
Food + QD
Feed + QD
Fiber + QD
Fuel
Productivity
growth
Demand in
emerging markets
1
3
2
s d
dp 1 dT dPOP dY dCC dECP dBE
p T POP Y CC ECP BE
with CC – climate change (production) effect, ECP – environmental and climate protection
(production) effect, BE – bioenergy policy (production) effect
64
15/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
Rediscovering productivity in EU agricultural policy?
It is time to rediscover productivity!
Re-evaluation of policies reducing supply and enhancing demand
(Environmental policies, feed and animal production,
future mitigation and current bioenergy policies)
Perspective: Intelligent and sustainable intensification and
productivity increase
R&D policy: volume and focus
reliable and supportive framework
Global implications and EU responsibility
Reshaping the CAP and the 2nd pillar?
16/16
Humboldt University of Berlin, Chair for Agricultural Policy
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Kirschke Trends-2011.pptx
