Demo analysis05 02

Empire State Development

Course Objectives

• Provide a general understanding of demographic processes

• Relate this to available data sources• Understand limitations of methods and data• Understand how the Cohort Component

method for population projections works• Understand why we use the Cohort

Component method• Leave with a model that allows you to prepare

county level population projections


Objectives of Participants

• Problems faced:– what is “best” method for pop. Projections– need to defend methodology and validity of

projections• What application areas do demographic

projections impact:– education– health planning– transportation– watershed buildout


Objectives of Participants

• What demographic data do you need– sub-county projections by age and race– sub-county income and poverty estimates

• Do you buy demographic data - NO• Decisions/Recommendations

– grant applications– research– future needs

• What do you hope to learn– understand methodology/variables to be used– advantages of different methods


Measuring Population Change• Some definitions:

– Residence (defacto, dejure)– Residents (total, non-institutional, GQ, HH

pop)– Time period (monthly, annual, 5-year, 10-

year)– Geographic area– Coverage– Age

• age heaping• grouped data


Some Statistical Terms

• Proportions: the number of observations of a subgroup divided by the total number of observations. The value in the numerator is a part of the denominator.– What’s the proportion of women in the

population ?? Total Females / Total Population

• Percentage: a proportion expressed per 100 cases– What percentage of the population is female?

Total Females / Total Population * 100


Some Statistical Terms

• Rate: the number of events in a given time period divided by the population (usually the average over the period of time - midpoint, often expressed per 1000 population)– What’s New York’s birth rate?

No. of Births / Total Population * 1000

• Probability: a rate expressed for the population at the beginning of the period - the population at risk– What is the probability of a person exact age

23 dying before reaching their 30th birthday?You don’t really want the formula!!


Population Change

= P1 - P0

New York State, 1990 to 2000985,679 = 18,976,457 - 17,990,778

Average Annual Change98,568 = 985,679 / 10

Assumes that change is linear


Population Change - LinearPercent Change % = / P0 * 100

5.4788 = 985,679 / 17,990,778 * 100

Average Annual Percent Change.5479 = 5.4788 / 10

Average Annual Growth Rater = / (1/2 (P0 + P1))

r = (985,679 / 18,483,617) / 10r = 0.0053327


How Does Population Change

1. People are born into a population

2. People die and leave the population

3. People migrate to and from areas


Components of ChangeThe Balancing Equation

Closed PopulationP1 = P0 + (B - D) + e

Opened PopulationP1 = P0 + (B - D) + (I - O) + e

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + (NM) + e


Components of Change

• Births and Deaths– Vital Statistics Registration System - Vital

Events– Birth, Death, Induced Termination,

Marriage, Divorce– Place of residence vs. place of occurance– Reported to county office of vital statistics– Compiled by State Department of Health,

National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)– 1 to 2 year reporting lag


Components of Change

• Migration– Few direct measures– Decennial Census: residence 5 years earlier– Internal Revenue Service: address changes

on tax returns– Residual Estimates: what’s left over


New York StateComponents of Change

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM

18,976,457 = 17,990,778 +Births1: 2,943,192 -

Deaths1: 1,740,620 +Net Migration: -216,893

1 - estimated from NYS DOH/NCHS


Components of ChangeNew York State

-200,000-100,000

0100,000

200,000300,000

400,000500,000

600,000700,000

800,000900,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Births Deaths Change Net Migrants


Declining County - ClintonComponents of Change

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM

79,894 = 85,969 +Births1: 9,904 -

Deaths1: 6,136 +Net Migration: -9,843



Components of ChangeClinton County

-5,000

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000



Stable County - St. LawrenceComponents of Change

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM

111,931 = 111,974 +Births1: 13,398 -

Deaths1: 10,194 +Net Migration: -3,247



Components of ChangeSt. Lawrence County

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000



Growing County - RichmondComponents of Change

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM

443,728 = 378,977 +Births1: 60,890 -

Deaths1: 34,246 +Net Migration: 38,107



Components of ChangeRichmond County

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000



The Balancing Equation - Refined

• For females, 20 to 24 years old P1

20-24,f = P020-24,f + (B0,1

20-24,f - D0,120-24,f) + NM0,1

20-24,f

P1 = P0 + (B - D) + NM

• For population sub-groups: P1

a,s,r = P0a,s,r + (B0,1

a,s,r - D0,1a,s,r) + NM0,1

a,s,r

P120-24,f = P0

15-19,f + (B0,120-24,f - D0,1

15-19,f) + NM0,115-19,f


Population Change

Period Analysis vs. Cohort Analysis

• Cohort Statistics - a population subgroup that shares a common demographic event, e.g. age cohort, marriage cohort

• Period Statistics - a combination of cohorts observed at a given point in time


1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Exact Age 75

Exact Age 80

Dec. 31LEXUS DIAGRAM

Exact Age 30

Exact Age 35

Exact Age 10

Exact Age 15

Exact Age 20

Exact Age 25

Jan. 1

Exact Age 0

Exact Age 5


Birth Year Age Progression

1995 2000 2005 2010

2005-2010 0-42000-2005 0-4 5-91995-2000 0-4 5-9 10-141990-1995 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-191985-1990 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-241980-1985 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-291975-1980 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-341970-1975 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-391965-1970 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-441960-1965 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-491955-1960 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-541950-1955 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-591945-1950 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-641940-1945 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-691935-1940 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-741930-1935 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-791925-1930 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-841920-1925 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+1915-1920 75-79 80-84 85+1910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Age in Year:Birth Year1995 2000 2005 2010

0-4 0-4 0-4 0-45-9 5-9 5-9 5-9

10-14 10-14 10-14 10-1415-19 15-19 15-19 15-1920-24 20-24 20-24 20-2425-29 25-29 25-29 25-2930-34 30-34 30-34 30-3435-39 35-39 35-39 35-3940-44 40-44 40-44 40-4445-49 45-49 45-49 45-4950-54 50-54 50-54 50-5455-59 55-59 55-59 55-5960-64 60-64 60-64 60-6465-69 65-69 65-69 65-6970-74 70-74 70-74 70-7475-79 75-79 75-79 75-7980-84 80-84 80-84 80-8485+ 85+ 85+ 85+

Age in Year:


Population Change by Age

1990 2000 Number Percent Number Percent

0-4 6,452 4,102 -2,350 -36.425-9 6,165 5,159 -1,006 -16.32 -1,293 -20.04

10-14 5,528 5,682 154 2.79 -483 -7.8315-19 6,767 6,400 -367 -5.42 872 15.7720-24 9,450 6,949 -2,501 -26.47 182 2.6925-29 8,789 4,974 -3,815 -43.41 -4,476 -47.3730-34 8,026 5,767 -2,259 -28.15 -3,022 -34.3835-39 6,644 7,025 381 5.73 -1,001 -12.4740-44 5,479 6,657 1,178 21.50 13 0.2045-49 4,217 5,711 1,494 35.43 232 4.2350-54 3,570 4,966 1,396 39.10 749 17.7655-59 3,393 3,792 399 11.76 222 6.2260-64 3,171 3,227 56 1.77 -166 -4.8965-69 2,665 2,906 241 9.04 -265 -8.3670-74 2,016 2,492 476 23.61 -173 -6.4975-79 1,712 1,833 121 7.07 -183 -9.0880-84 1,111 1,162 51 4.59 -550 -32.1385+ 814 1,090 276 33.91 -835 -75.16

Total 85,969 79,894 -6,075 -7.07 6,068 7.06

Period Change Cohort ChangeAge


Population Pyramid

Population PyramidNew York State, 1990

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female

Population PyramidNew York State 2000

-6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80-84

Male

Female


Cohort Component Model (cont’d)

1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Birth Year

Age of Population

in 2000

Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000

Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival

Rate

Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival

RateSurvivors of Initial Pop.

Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival


Migration Rate

Migration Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival


Migration Rate Migrants

Migration Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival



Migration Births to Women 15 to 44

Age of Population

in 2005



1995-2000 0-41990-1995 0-4 5-91985-1990 5-9 10-141980-1985 10-14 15-191975-1980 15-19 20-241970-1975 20-24 25-291965-1970 25-29 30-341960-1965 30-34 35-391955-1960 35-39 40-441950-1955 40-44 45-491945-1950 45-49 50-541940-1945 50-54 55-591935-1940 55-59 60-641930-1935 60-64 65-691925-1930 65-69 70-741920-1925 70-74 75-791915-1920 75-79 80-841910-1915 80-84 85+1905-1910 85+

Survival

Birth Year

Enumerated 2000

Population

Age of Population

in 2000Survival



Migration Projected 2005

Population

Births to Women 15 to 44

Age of Population

in 2005

Technology

Demo analysis05 02