Data

Smoothie

Paul AskewSpeakingdata.org.uk

1. Smoothed v. Real Data [6 month step]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: 6 month step

2. Smoothed v. Real Data [3 month step]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: 3 month step

3. Smoothed v. Real Data [2 month step]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: 2 month step

4. Smoothed v. Real Data [1 month step]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: 1 month step

5. Smoothed v. Real Data [monthly increase]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: monthly increase

6. Smoothed v. Real Data [monthly decrease]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: monthly decrease

7. Smoothed v. Real Data [decreasing divergence]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: decreasing divergence

8. Smoothed v. Real Data [increasing divergence]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: increasing divergence

9. Smoothed v. Real Data [high and low]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: high and low

10. Smoothed v. Real Data [highs and lows]

Smoothed Data

Real Data: highs and lows

Smoothed Data or Real Data

Highs and lowsHigh and low

DecreasingIncreasing Increasing convergence

Decreasing convergence

Three month step Six month stepTwo month step

Smoothed Data – 12 month rolling average

Smoothed Data

Example Real Data

Notes: Real data for 12 months, previous 12 months is exactly the same, to create 12 month rolling average (mean).

This smoothed data is derived from any of these underlying

real data examples.

Smoothed Data and

Corresponding Real Data

Series 0:FlatJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Real data 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 1: 6 month step

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 50 50 50 50 150 150 150 150 150 150 50 50 50 50 50 50 150 150 150 150 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 2: 3 month step

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150 50 50 50 150 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 3: 2 month step

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150 50 50 150 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 4: 1 month step

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150 50 150Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 5: monthly increse

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 0 20 40 60 80 100 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 20 40 60 80 100 100 120 140 160 180 200Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 6: monthly decrease

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 200 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 60 40 20 0 200 180 160 140 120 100 100 80 60 40 20 0Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 7: descreasing divergence

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 160 100 40 100 140 100 60 100 120 100 80 100 160 100 40 100 140 100 60 100 120 100 80 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 8: increasing divergence

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 120 80 100 140 100 60 100 160 100 40 100 100 120 80 100 140 100 60 100 160 100 40 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 9: High and low

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 100 200 100 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100Series 10: Highs and lows

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecReal data 100 100 200 100 150 100 100 50 100 0 100 100 100 100 200 100 150 100 100 50 100 0 100 100Rolling Average 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100