Connected Verticals: Opportunities in Transport and Energy

Connected Verticals

Opportunities in Transport and Energy

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Introduction

Telecom innovation – such as M2M, LTE, Ethernet and cloud computing - is triggering the emergence new business models, revenue streams and powerful efficiencies across many industries.

Informa Telecoms & Media’s Enterprise Verticals Intelligence Centre delivers go-to-market intelligence on monetizable opportunities, taking advantage of the multi-disciplinary resources of Informa plc, one of the world’s largest information services firms.

Connected verticals are industries where telecom innovation can achieve deep transformation in efficiency and business model. Nine out of 10 telecom firms expect to generate top-line growth from targeting opportunities in industries such as energy and utilities, health and transportation, according to Informa’s 2011 Vertical Markets Survey. Six out of 10 telecom firms are already building vertical teams, and a further 20% plan to do so. But how should telecom firms engage with connected verticals? Which sales models – sell to, sell with or sell

through – are most appropriate? Not least, how can telecom firms build trust?

Three connected verticals opportunities are profiled in this report:• TheconnecTedTrain:Connected

train services use wireless broadband to deliver Internet access for passengers, alongside ancillary services such as e-ticketing and security features such as CCTV.

• TheconnecTedship:The global shipping industry handles 90% of goods traded worldwide, requiring fail-safe ship-shore connectivity to meet regulatory requirements and boost efficiency.

• smarTmeTering: Smart metering is a critical factor in the development of the 21st Century utility, changing the dynamics of energy supply and demand.

Camille MendlerPrincipal Analyst | Head of Enterprise VerticalsInforma Telecoms & Media

Email: [email protected]: +44 (0)7766 131 528

Contents

04TheconnecTedTrainopporTuniTy: PaSSENgER SERVICES

06smarTmeTering: CoNNECTIVITy TRENDS

08TheconnecTedshipseTssail

latestresearch

• TheConnectedTrain:OpportunityReviewofFast-GrowingEconomies

• TheConnectedTrain:OpportunityReviewofPassengerServices• SmartMetering:ConnectivityTrends• SmartMetering:OpportunityReview• SmartMetering:GlobalForecast2010-2016

• TheConnectedShip:OpportunityReviewofShipping• 2011InformaLloyd’sListConnectedShipSurvey• InformaTelecomCloudMonitor:TheRiseofVerticalClouds• M2OCity:Orange’sSmartWaterMeteringJV• 2011InformaVerticalMarketsSurvey


For more information on our research please contact us on: +44 (0)20 7017 4994 or email: [email protected] or visit: www.informatandm.com

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The Connected Train Opportunity: passengerservices

“Half of the world’s top-20 passenger train operator companies have yet to provide broadband wireless Internet access for their passengers. The combined track infrastructure of this addressable market would circle the equator more than five times.”

The ‘connected train’ is thundering into view as evolving wireless-broadband technology presents train operator companies (ToCs) with a reliable, cost-effective alternative to satellite.

ToCs in competitive markets are seeking to lure passengers away from road and air, as well as from rival rail companies. The ability to access the Internet on the move is the most commonly requested value-added service, according to passenger surveys.ground-train communications based on satellite, 3g and 4g technologies provide enough capacity for Internet access, online gaming, reliable voice service, and ancillary retail services, such as e-ticketing and security CCTV (see fig. 1). a market is therefore developing for vendors, MNos and specialized systems integrators to overcome the technological challenges and fit out whole fleets of rolling stock.

The connected train opportunity

Half of the world’s top-20 passenger train operator companies have yet to provide broadband wireless Internet access for their customers. The combined track infrastructure of this addressable market would circle the equator more than five times.

In a series of reports, Informa Telecoms & Media is investigating ‘connected train’ opportunities, starting with passenger services. The analysis is based

on an examination of 300 existing and proposed fast and high-speed rail routes in 45 countries, as well as interviews with connectivity providers. also integrated is Informa’s global database of LTE rollouts by country and frequency band and forecasts of global mobile broadband demand. The output is a decision tool to help connectivity providers identify and validate connected train opportunities.

Market trends

• Broadbandpassengerserviceswillbecome commonplace on long-distance and commuter rail in developed markets. Train operators in competitive markets must add value to their travel service in order to seize market share from air and road transportation. Internet access on the move is not only for business-class passengers on the latest bullet trains. With the growing proliferation of smart consumer devices,

travelers of all kinds are reluctant to be offline for any prolonged period.

• investmentinrailinfrastructureinfast-growing economies will drive selective connected train rollouts. Public hot-spots are less common in China, India and Brazil, although mobile operators are embarking on mass network deployments. on-train Internet access will appear predominantly on flagship intercity services that carry a high proportion of business travelers and smartphone users between centers of commerce.

• macroeconomic,politicalandenvironmental forces are the prime drivers of investment in fast and high-speed rail (see fig. 2). Public funding for a flagship passenger-rail service relies on broad political support and social approval. Flagship projects are expected to achieve operational breakeven, but price inelasticity limits the premium that can be charged for simply delivering passengers to their destination more

Fig 1 Typical connected-train architecture

Sheridan Nye

Senior Analyst

[email protected]

Twitter: @sheridannye

Satellite ground station

Aggregationpoint

Accesspoint

Base station Base station Base station Base station

Train access point Train access point Train access point

Accesspoint

Internet

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, D. Fokum & V. Frost (2010)

quickly. ToCs are therefore emphasizing quality of customer experience more than ever, offering such perks as gourmet food, Internet access and entertainment.

passenger-servicesbusinessmodels

In developed markets, consumers are accustomed to free Internet access in cafes, hotels and other commercial locations. Informa estimates that paid-for, on-train hot-spot services have seen only a modest take-up of 3-5%. However, the rate will increase as connections become faster and more reliable, more passengers carry smartphones and ToCs become sufficiently confident in the quality of the offering to promote the service more prominently. • Tocsmustsustainapaid-formodelin

order to cover costs and give cellular operators an incentive to invest in reliable coverage. Free service can be offered for a short period after launch in order to promote the service and iron

out any technical wrinkles. Thereafter, a per-hour or similar fee is necessary on intercity routes where most passengers are occasional. Regular commuters will require a subscription deal for daily, short-period use.

• hot-spotproviderswillseekexclusiverights to retain service revenue. Rather than rely solely on per-use revenue share, many ToCs offer ‘free’ unmetered access as an inducement to upgrade to first-class travel, which Informa’s sample analysis indicates costs an average of 60% above standard. For example, since introducing free Internet access, fast-train operator SJ of Sweden reports a 4% increase in first-class ticket sales and 25% take-up of the service among these travelers.

• hot-spotfeesandashareofrevenuesare only part of the opportunity. ToCs are learning to innovate in content- and advertising-led business models. Locally stored pay-per-view films and TV shows are feasible if journey time allows, and travel services, such as taxi booking, are

a revenue-share opportunity. on-board ticketing is another connectivity-enabled service that helps drive repeat business. Italy’s Frecciarossa, for example, offers news, film footage, music, video games and information services from on-board media servers.

• content-ledservicesareanewdeparture for large train companies. ToC marketing is traditionally focused on scheduling and pricing. Vendors have an important role to play in encouraging ToCs to develop their skills in buying content and selling sponsorship and media space.

Conclusions

· Smartphones and tablets will drive demand for broadband passenger services.

· Business models must give MNos an incentive to optimize rail route coverage.

· Coverage will remain patchy for at least the next five years.

· LTE will offer a lower-cost alternative to satellite at very high train speeds. However, coverage will remain for at least the next five years.

This is an extract of Informa research on transportation. More information is available to clients through the Enterprise Verticals practice on the Intelligence Centre.

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Fig 2STEEP analysis of external environment for investment in fast rail and HSR

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media

Social

Technological

Environmental

Economic

US$

Political and regulatory

VOTE!VOTE!

Globalization of business; migration and leisure travel; large-scale religious, cultural and sporting events; scarcity of work time

Resistance to land-use change; loss of housing and amenities; environmental damage; noise

Opportunities Risks

Faster trains; standardization of rail infrastructure

Di�erences in gauge between routes and countries hampers interoperability

Electric trains have smaller carbon footprint than diesel rail, road and air

Targets to reduce transport use; less commuting due to rise in home working and video conferencing

Economic growth; increasing competitiveness of rail; introduction of carbon charging; rise in energy prices

Competitiveness of air and road; doubtful return on capital investment in HSR

Policy support and investment for transport-harmonization, social-cohesion and carbon-reduction commitments; anticongestion measures

Political uncertainty weakens conditions for private investment

06

Smart Metering: Connectivity Trends

Smart meter replacement programs are viewed as a major opportunity for mobile operators to generate revenues by connecting millions of homes to energy utilities’ back-end systems.

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts that 356 million smart meters will be in operation in homes globally by 2016, a CagR of 34% from 2010. Driving the majority of this growth are specific regulatory targets in the European Union and aggressive targets in China.

But the use of cellular connectivity for smart metering is not a foregone conclusion, according to Informa’s analysis of 59 active deployments in 15 countries in asia, Europe and North america (see figs. 1 and 2): • Fewerthanhalfoftheutilitiesare

deploying cellular connectivity in the backhaul;

• Lessthanoneinfiveutilitiesusecellularconnectivity between meters and aggregation points (see fig. 1);

• Electricityutilitiesprefertodeployandoperate their own communications networks.

Connectivity zones

Smart-metering connectivity can be divided into three zones: The Home area Network (HaN), Neighborhood area Network (NaN) encompassing homes and buildings in a locality, and Wide area Network (WaN), essentially the backhaul from the data aggregation point.

The HaN is currently the site of intense competition to establish a de facto standard for connection of electronics and appliances in the home. among leading contenders for the connected home are proprietary technologies ZigBee and Z-Wave; Motorola

Mobility’s 4Home; and google’s android@Home. Broadband powerline, which uses the data-carrying capacities of electricity cabling, has also established a small space in this market.

For many home energy-saving applications, a compatible home hub and Internet connection is all that is needed to aggregate and Web-enable the display of data and device control functionality. However, to meet privacy and security requirements, metering data must leave the home on a dedicated channel – either a second DSL or other fixed line, or one of various wireless options.

NAN optionsChoice of NaN connectivity depends on local conditions, notably the distance between the home and the backhaul aggregation point and the density of homes per transformer.

Cellular options to connect meters tend to fill in where alternatives are unavailable

– RF modules for 3g, gPRS and gSM/SMS modules are offered alongside non-cellular options by the leading meter manufacturers. The UK approach is an exception, largely due to the separation in its energy market between retail suppliers and the distributors that own and run the infrastructure. as the retailers have no cabling to leverage, PLC is a less attractive option.

The vision of an all-IP smart grid will introduce LTE into the utility network to integrate grid monitoring and control with metering. Smart grids require near real-time response and extremely high reliability that LTE should be better able to satisfy.

WAN optionsCellular wireless options are more prominent in the WaN – around half the utilities that Informa Telecoms & Media analyzed use cellular backhaul to some extent . Informa identifies four principal connectivity models, defined by the predominant choice of technology in the NaN (see fig. 3). • powerlinecommunications(plc):

Fig 1Proportion of utilities, by connectivity method (NaN)

Fig 2Proportion of utilities, by connectivity method (WaN)


Note: Based on sample of 26 smart-metering deployments, totaling 129 million meters. Utilities don’t always declare all WaN/backhaul methods. Many also use own fiber and microwave.

Sheridan Nye

Senior Analyst

[email protected]

Twitter: @sheridannye

NAN CONNECTIVITY

DSL ............................. 2%

Zigbee ..................... 12%

gSM ........................... 7%

gPRS .......................... 7%

3g ............................... 2%

PLC ........................... 26%

WiFi ............................ 2%

WiMaX .................... 12%

Long-range radio .. 7%

RF Mesh .................. 23%

WAN/bACkhAul CONNECTIVITY

Fiber ........................... 9%

PSTN .......................... 3%

CDMa ........................ 3%

gSM ......................... 12%

gPRS ........................ 26%

3g ............................... 3%

LTE .............................. 3%

WiMaX .................... 15%

Long-range radio .. 3%

other ....................... 24%

07

Electricity cabling in home and to aggregation point

• nanmetermesh: Each meter is an independent node using ZigBee, RF mesh or similar

• directaccess:Cellular, WiMaX, long-range RF to connect directly from each individual meter to the aggregation point

• homehub:Combination of IP meter, communications hub and home broadband

The choice of model depends on a combination of factors: the utility’s assets

and ability to manage them; its coverage needs; the availability of spectrum; the pricing offered and the perceived reliability of commercial third-party connectivity choices. Fig. 3 shows that ‘direct access’ is the most popular configuration (37%); in our sample of 26 smart-metering deployments, totaling 129 million meters.

Utilities have the luxury of a range of options to suit their particular conditions – white space cognitive radio is the latest contender to emerge. For cellular operators, connectivity for smart metering is a high-volume, relatively-low-margin revenue opportunity – albeit with a very low marginal cost of supply. Per-SIM/per-month connectivity prices are low and Informa’s research indicates the prevailing trend is downward. The bigger opportunity lies in integrating metering with the smart grid, where the need for end-to-end visibility, managed services and security of thousands of elements plays to the communications specialists’ strengths.

Structural factors

Structural factors can reinforce the cellular business case, or act against it. Regulated utilities may receive direct subsidy for capex projects, or are allowed to recover costs by raising prices. The US federal government has injected billions of dollars of stimulus funding into smart metering/grid initiatives. The result is to encourage a verticalized, build-your-own strategy and limit external investment in connectivity.

The complexity of managing multiple communications technologies will persuade some utilities to outsource and concentrate on their core business of delivering power. The introduction of smart grids adds complexity to the utility’s power operations

as thousands more grid elements are automated than have ever been connected before. For some utilities, outsourcing the smart metering operation, from connectivity through to data management and billing, will be a sensible option.

Public announcements show operators partnering with home-energy and appliance-control firms and meter-reading and data-management specialists and integrators. Meanwhile, utilities are driving interoperability standards for PLC and lobbying for dedicated spectrum in order to retain internal control over their communications networks.

Conclusions

Commercial connectivity providers must be able to guarantee: · Congestion-free connectivity:

Commercial cellular networks are perceived as being subject to congestion and outages.

· Manageable upgrades: Wireless standards evolve at a rapid pace, but meter lifecycles are typically 10-15 years.

· privacyandsecurity: National standards for securing power consumers’ data can be higher than for cellular users.

This is an extract of Informa research on energy and utilities. More information is available to clients through the Enterprise Verticals practice on the Intelligence Centre.


Fig 3Smart metering: Four connectivity models

Note: Based on sample of 26 smart-metering deployments, totaling 129 million meters.

Home hub ............................................................................ 5% IP meter to home communications hub

Meter mesh ....................................................................... 29% Metering mesh with backhaul from access point (eg: Zigbee, RF mesh)

Direct access ..................................................................... 37% Cellular, wireless, broadband or RF from meter to access point (eg: GSM/GPRS SIM, long range radio, WiMAX)

Powerline ........................................................................... 29% PLC/BPL to utility’s transformer access point, then backhaul


08

The Connected Ship Sets Sail

The global shipping industry needs safe harbors in changing times. More than 90% of goods traded worldwide transit by sea for onward delivery. This involves complex handoffs in ports, increasingly stringent regulatory requirements and tough efficiency targets to protect profit margins in a highly-competitive industry. Not least, piracy continues to be a hazard to seafarers worldwide.

Can telecom innovation make a quantifiable difference to this centuries-old, but still dynamic industry? Informa Telecoms & Media believes that it can – but first, trust needs to be earned.• Almostaquarterofshippingfirmssay

their current communications technology supplier is unreliable

• Costofship-shoreconnectivityisthenumber one communications headache

• Fewerthanathirdofshippingfirmsthink communications technology is a competitive differentiator

These are headline findings of a unique cross-industry collaboration between Informa Telecoms & Media and Informa sister company Lloyd’s List, the leading global source for maritime intelligence.

Conducted worldwide, the Informa Lloyd’s List Connected Ship Survey uncovered key business challenges and investment priorities among cargo and passenger ship owners, cargo ship managers, surveyors and other shipping industry stakeholders.

Shipping challenges

The price of a barrel of oil controls the fate of many participants in the global shipping industry (see fig. 1).

Fuel is a major operational cost. Inter-dependencies between shipping and the oil and gas industry are also relevant for tankers transporting oil and liquefied natural gas, as well as surveyor ships which map seas and oceans for new resources.

globally, price pressures are growing at a time when the shipping industry is suffering a dearth of qualified staff to work in often challenging conditions.

Consequently, Informa recommends that, to be successful in the global shipping industry, communications technology suppliers must deliver:• Solutionsthatloweroperationalcosts• Solutionsthatrequirelittleornotraining• Solutionsthatincreaseautomation

The Connected Ship

The connected ship is a vision of the future of shipping. and Informa believes that telecom innovation is available today to make it a reality.

The connected ship is tracked globally, and its route is minutely adjusted to balance speed and fuel efficiency. Its cargo is also monitored across the supply chain, with customs clearances performed automatically when coming into port. The crew of the connected ship communicates with head office like any other branch office; off-shift, they call and IM friends at home and watch videos.

That’s the theory – but today’s reality is rather different for most shipping firms (see fig. 2).

The cost of connectivity – typically narrowband satellite – is a serious cost for shipping firms. Equally important, it is no longer proving fit for purpose. Communications needs are not ad-hoc or intermittent in shipping; ships must be integrated into the corporate network for unified communications, and routine reporting.

In addition, there’s the problem of maintenance. Technology in use at sea

Camille Mendler

Principal Analyst

[email protected]

Twitter: @cmendler

Fig 1Key challenges in global shipping

Insurance costs

Other regulation

On-shore staff skills

Environmental regulation

Staff recruitment & retention

Security / Piracy

On-ship staff skills

Price pressure

Fuel costs

6%

9%

10%

19%

21%

27%

30%

32%

45%

Source: Informa Lloyd’s List Connected Ship Survey

WhAT ArE ThE bIggEST ChAllENgES FOr ThE glObAl ShIppINg INduSTrY?

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must be robust, and easy to fix remotely. With skills lacking on board, fixing and maintaining technology at sea often means sending out a technical expert via helicopter.

Technology priorities

What technologies can drive positive change? The Informa Lloyd’s List Connected Ship Survey identifies both push and pull in technology investment priorities (see fig. 3).

Shipping firms are more likely to see communications technology as a necessary cost. Fewer than a third see technology as a tool for competitive differentiation. That’s a perception that communications technology suppliers must address.

Nevertheless, communications investment is growing: Despite fuel costs and other price pressures, more than 40% of shipping firms are increasing their communications budgets, according to the Informa Lloyd’s List Connected Ship Survey.

• Broadbandsatellitewillbecomeshipping’s workhorse service: The attraction isn’t just bandwidth availability, but new consumption and pricing models.

• machinetomachine(m2m)andsensortechnologies have powerful potential: They can optimize navigation, track cargo and environmental conditions for greater efficiency.

• regulationwilltriggerchange: Mandated ship tracking, automated ship and port processes will require new technology investment.

Conclusions

For shipping firms: Expect more for less.• demandclarityinbroadbandsatellite

pricing: Competition is increasingly keen, but pricing bundles can confuse and often hide varying quality levels.

• seekmulti-skilledsuppliers: Work with those that listen and understand your specific business needs and can provide a

holistic solution on ship and on shore.• consolidatesuppliers: Reduce

management overhead and increase your negotiating power.

For communications technology suppliers: Clean up your act.• competeonquality,notjustcost: Focus

on service-level improvements and be proactive.

• understandtheirbusiness: The relevance and type of communications technology need varies by shipping segment; one size does not fit all.

• sellmorethanconnectivity: Simplicity, automation and remote management are key needs where M2M, unified communications and cloud computing could bring powerful benefits.

This is an extract of Informa research on transportation. More information is available to clients through the Enterprise Verticals practice on the Intelligence Centre.


Fig 2Top communications headaches in global shipping

Cost of data storage

Cost of communications hardware

Crew technical skills

Security of data

Reliability of external suppliers

Rising bandwidth needs

Cost of maintenance

Quality of ship-shore connectivity

Cost of connectivity

1%

7%

18%

18%

23%

26%

27%

29%

52%


Fig 3Key technologies in global shipping

Cloud computing

Software as a service

Least cost routing

ECDIS

Machinery monitoring & sensors (M2M/RFID)

Broadband satellite

10.4%

27.4%

32.1%

35.8%

48.1%

80.2%


WhICh TEChNOlOgIES ArE MOST CrITICAl FOr ThE glObAl ShIppINg INduSTrY?WhAT ArE YOur TOp COMMuNICATIONS hEAdAChES?

Camille MendlerPrincipal AnalystInforma Telecoms & MediaEmail: [email protected]: +44 (0)7766 131 528Twitter: @cmendler

Camille advises clients on top-line growth opportunities at the intersection of telecom and communications-intensive industries. She identifies and validates sales engagement models, focusing in particular on the monetization of cloud computing, Ethernet, mobility and M2M technologies in verticalized contexts.

Camille is an accomplished consultant and team manager, having delivered more than 70 expert engagements to clients in asia, Europe and North america during her career. Previously, Camille was a vice president at yankee group, where she spearheaded research and consulting in telecom industry transformation, with specific competences in cloud computing and managed services.

Camille is a frequent public speaker and media commentator on global ICT trends, and serves as a judge for the Total Telecom World Vendor awards and MEF Service Provider awards. She has also held operational roles in strategic marketing and fiber infrastructure development in European operators, and served as an advisor to the Soros Foundations and the International Telecommunication Union.

Camille is a research fellow of the Russian area Studies Master’s Program at georgetown University in Washington, DC and holds a BSJ with a minor in Russian from Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois. She is a member of Women in Telecoms and Technology.

sheridannyeSenior AnalystInforma Telecoms & MediaEmail: [email protected] Tel: +44 (0)20 7017 4046Twitter: @sheridannye

Sheridan analyses developments in telecom networks and services to identify emerging demand for industry-specific solutions. She follows developments across multiple enterprise sectors, requiring an understanding of technological, economic, political and social forces that drive demand for communications. Her current recent research interests include the use of telecom technology to drive efficiency in energy supply, high-speed rail transport and machine-to-machine applications.

Sheridan joined Informa after pursuing doctoral research in telecoms and climate change at the Science Policy Research Unit of the University of Sussex. From 2000-2004 she was a telecom industry analyst at oSS observer and RHK Inc in the United States and from 1997-2000 a journalist with Total Telecom and Communications Week International in London. She began her career as a Broadcast Engineer for BBC News, UK.

Sheridan holds a Masters degree in Public Policy for Science, Technology and Innovation; an Honours degree in Media Studies and a Higher National Diploma in Broadcast Engineering. She is a member of the Institute of Telecommunications Professionals and has a working knowledge of Spanish.

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What’s your move? Telecom innovation can transform entire industries. Make it happen with pragmatic guidance, data-rich intelligence and incisive analysis.

The Enterprise Verticals research practice of Informa Telecoms & Media is your trusted guide in connected verticals.

access custom and syndicated decision support services on communications-intensive industries.

For more information about Informa Telecoms & Media’s Enterprise Verticals research practice, contact your Informa account manager or Camille Mendler:

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