Complexity, context and collaboration from manufacturing software to creating a service relationship by Dave Snowden

Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201

EVERY CORPSE ON EVEREST WAS ONCE AN EXTREMELY MOTIVATED PERSON, HIGHLY ENGAGED WITH INSPIRED LEADERS


COMPLEXITY, CONTEXT & COLLABORATION

AGILE BOSNIA 2016

"THATCHERISM WREAKED THE MOST HEINOUS, SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND SPIRITUAL DAMAGE UPON THIS COUNTRY”

GLENDA JACKSON MP 11TH APRIL 2013

http://www.mirror.co.uk/all-about/margaret-thatcher-policies

Material in this presentation is either Copyright © 2016 Bangor University or Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd.. All Rights Reserved. Protected in part by copyright, patent and trademark and other law

THE CYNEFIN CENTRE: NAVIGATING COMPLEXITY IN SOCIAL SYSTEMS

CONSTRAINTS, COHERENCE & FRACTAL REPRESENTATION▸ Constraints can contain or couple

identities and 'objects'

▸ Context free & context specific

▸ They can be rigid, elastic, loose, permeable, mutating or 'dark'

▸ Coherence is a key concept in philosophy of science linked to my definition of sense-making ...

▸ ... how do we make sense of the world so that we can act in it



CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK

ComplicatedGoverning constraints sense-analyse-respond

Good Practice

ObviousRigid constraints

sense-categorise-respond Best Practice

ChaoticAbsence of constraints

act-sense-respond Novel Practice

ComplexEnabling constraints

probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice

Making sense of the world in order to act in it

We can map dispositions and propensities


TO THE ABSTRACT & SYMBOLIC …

MAKING SENSE OF THE WORLD IN ORDER TO ACT IN IT



HIGH ABSTRACTION, HUMAN METADATA DESCRIPTIVE NOT EVALUATIVE SOURCE DATA

Acting intuitively, instantly

The situation was analysed

logically

People thought deeply and made decisions based on principles



FITNESS LANDSCAPES FOR DISCOVERY & SEARCH

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Doing it Right

Wel

l def

ined

pro

cess

es a

nd p

roce

dure

s



FRACTAL INSIGHT & THE SEE-ATTEND-ACT PRINCIPLE

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

2040

6080

100

Over the top stressful

Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m m

anag

emen

t

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

020

4060

80100


Pre

ssur

e fro

m s

elf

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Self Imposed

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Freedom too far

Dea

dlin

es to

o fa

r

24 radiologists were asked to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task.

A picture of a gorilla, 48 times larger than the average nodule, was inserted in the last case.

83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla.

Eye-tracking showed that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at it

Drew, Vo & Wolfe Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853



REAL TIME DECISION SUPPORT AND NEED IDENTIFICATION

20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80

Doing it Right

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve

0 20 40 60 80 100

020

4060

80100

Self Imposed

An

inte

nse

driv

e to

ach

ieve



CYNEFIN A SENSE-MAKING FRAMEWORK

Most techniques are coherent in context

Emergent URC, mutation etc

ScrumTimeboxes, backlog, release protocols etc.

Waterfall modified

Anticipatory alerts to initiate crisis prevention

... but some are plain wrong ...

... and a few are pyramid selling schemes

CONFERENCE SPONSORS

GOLD

SILVER

BRONZE

MEDIA PARTNERS


Technology

Complexity, context and collaboration from manufacturing software to creating a service relationship by Dave Snowden