http://hde.osu.edu/

Dr. Erik C. Nisbet

School Communication

Department of Political Science

The Ohio State University

Communicating About Climate

Change

Today’s Agenda

• Trends and explanations for public opinion about climate change

• Emerging strategies for communicating about climate change

Is Climate Change Happening?

But are we the cause???

Climate Change Not Priority

Climate Change Not a Threat Now

In Sum• Belief that CG is happening has rebounded

• Presently 2/3 of Americans believe CG is occurring but divided about▫ Whether humans are the cause▫ The amount of scientific consensus about the

cause

• Most Americans also…▫ Do not believe it is an immediate threat▫ Do not believe it will impact them personally▫ Rank it low compared to other environmental

concerns

Possible Explanations for Opinion

• Economic Trends

• Media Coverage of Climate Change

• Knowledge

• Ideology/Values

Environment vs. Economy

BP Spill

Great Recession

But economy slowly rebounding….

Low media attention – driven by events

Excerpted from American University Climate Shift Report, 2011

False Balance Declining

Excerpted from American University Climate Shift Report, 2011

Though Cable News and…

Excerpted from Feldman, 2011

Online continues to debate science

Climate Gate 2009 American Geophysical Union 2010

Political and Media “Disaster” Frames

Hyperbole of News?

Though that may be evolving…

Role of Knowledge

• Classic explanation for public opinion about science issues is the “scientific deficit” model▫ Assumes increasing citizen knowledge will lead

the public to adopt policy attitudes in line with scientific consensus

▫ Works with a small percentage (10-15%) of the public

▫ Ignores the complexity of opinion formation

Knowledge of Climate Change

Based on Answers to 81 Factual Questions from 2,030 Adults

Excerpted from Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, 2010

Cognitive Misers

• Most people lack a) motivation and b) ability to systematically and deliberatively process large amounts of information about a complex issue or topic

• Instead, we employ a range of heuristics, mental shortcuts, to make decisions about complex issues, ex. Ideology, Trust

Motivated Reasoning

• We “work backward” from our strongly held pre-existing beliefs and values to reduce affective and emotional distress – reason effused with emotion

• Values and ideology act as “perceptual screens” through processes such as…

▫ Selective Exposure, Attention, Recall

▫ Counter-arguing

▫ Source Degradation

Knowledge and Ideology

Binomial Logistic Regression; controlling for education, age, income, race, gender, ideology, political interest, television

exposure, newspaper exposure, knowledge, attention to political news, attention to science and environmental news; Model explains

29.7% of Pseudo R-square (Nagelkerke)

Ideologically Driven Misperceptions• Liberal Misperceptions

▫ Hole in ozone layer is primary cause of global warming.

▫ Reducing fossil fuel reliance now would immediately decrease CO2 in atmosphere

▫ Earth's climate is warmest it has ever been

• Conservative Misperceptions▫ Record cold and snowstorms prove that global warming

is not happening

▫ Climate often changes from year to year.

▫ Great deal of disagreement among scientists about global warming happening or not.

Misperceptions increase as news attention increases

The Challenge of Ideology

• Hart and Nisbet, 2012

▫ Participant read a brief news article about the potential health impacts of climate change on farmers

▫ Manipulated the perceived social distance of potential victims from participant (in-group vs. out-group)

▫ Tested whether political partisanship moderated perceived social distance

Boomerang Effect

• Democrats supported climate mitigation efforts regardless of which group featured

• Republicans in the out-group message became MORE opposed to climate mitigation than Republicans who received no message.

• Messaging activated ideology = increased opposition

Emerging Communication Approaches

• Framing▫ Aligning CG policies with ideology/values

▫ Reduce motivated reasoning with consensus issues like health

• Reducing Psychological Distance

• Focus on Climate Change Adaptation

Communicating Context and Values

• Framing as means of making sense of complex issues: “Perception is reference dependent”

• Framing is about creating and communicating interpretive packages that select or present a subset of considerations or attributes about a topic

• Frames influence opinions by suggesting or reinforcing specific problem definitions causal interpretations moral evaluations recommendations and solutions likely outcomes

Communication Strategy

• Recognize own ideological/value biases

• Identify Audience Segments

• Connect Communication to Values

• Reduce Motivated Reasoning

Recognize own biases…

Excerpted from

American

University Climate

Shift Report, 2011

Audience Segmentation

Match Messages with Audiences

Matching Values & Message

• Yale/George Mason Experiment:

▫ Over 60% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supported action on climate change when presented value-consistent frames

Value Frames• “Free Market /Accountability”

▫ Our free-enterprise economy only works properly when individuals and companies are held accountable for harm that their actions cause to un-consenting people or the country as a whole. Companies that release heat-trapping pollution into the air should be accountable for those costs.“

• “Moral Purity”

▫ Carbon pollution is fouling our air and our water, and harming our health. We should take steps to maintain the purity of our air and water. As Benjamin Franklin said, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

Framing CG Impacts

Global warming’s impact on our national security

Global warming’s impact on our health

Global warming’s impact on our environment

Health = Personal & Emotional

“We need to… convince the world that humanity

really is the most important species endangered by

climate change.”

—Margaret Chan, MD, Director-General, World

Health Organization

“Climate change is one of the most serious public

health threats facing our nation. Yet few

Americans are aware of the very real

consequences of climate change on the health of

our communities, our families and our children.”

—Georges Benjamin, MD,

Executive Director

American Public Health Association

Health Elicits Positive Response Among

Disengaged & Skeptics

Myers et. al., 2012 Climatic Change Letters

Communicate Local, NOT Global• Construal Level Theory

▫ People who think about a problem in abstract terms, compared to concrete terms, perceive less risk

• Perceived psychological distance influences construal level – the challenges:

• Among people who believe CG is happening they believe impacts will happen far away to other people

CG is Happening CG is not happening

Spatial Temporal

Social Hypothetical

Talking about climate adaptation

• Turn conversation to climate adaptation rather than mitigation:

▫ How can individuals and communities adapt to changing climate conditions at local level?

• Do not use the term “adaptation” – reduces urgency and is abstract/technical

• Sensitize people to possible local risks/impacts with focus on prevention, capacity-building, community resilience

Example Project• NSF Funded Project: How to address long-term

impacts of climate change on agricultural runoff in Maumee Watershed and health of Lake Erie

▫ Large focus on general public and stakeholder attitudes and behaviors

▫ Climate change will increase runoff due to Longer growing seasons Variable & Extreme weather events Overall greater precipitation

▫ Increased runoff = algal blooms in Lake Erie

▫ How can agricultural practices adapt to changing climate conditions in ways that reduce farm runoff and water pollution?

Some Online Resources

• http://climatechangecommunication.org

• http://climateshiftproject.org

• http://thebreakthrough.org

• http://www.pewresearch.org

• http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com