Collective Mind:Perspective froma Futurist

Aziz (Mehdi) Alizadeh

What is the Future Study?

Phenomenology in the time dimension. The power of distinguishing the Possible,

Plausible, Probable and Preferable Futures. to harness the Anticipatory Thinking power of

human for dealing with uncertainty. To perceive the reality and getting close enough

to truth.

Phenomenology in the time dimension. The power of distinguishing the Possible,

Plausible, Probable and Preferable Futures. to harness the Anticipatory Thinking power of

human for dealing with uncertainty. To perceive the reality and getting close enough

to truth.

Do our Anticipatory Thinking power can distinguish all possible futures? How manyof them can be identified? Can we be sure about it?

Anticipatory thinking includes active attention management, focusing attention on likelysources of critical information.

Aziz Alizadeh

Paradox of Uncertainty

The Paradox of Uncertainty is that it isimpossible not to choose. Even the non-

choice is a way of choosing.

Aziz Alizadeh

How are we going to take action in front of thefuture uncertainty?

What is the main human capability for dealingwith future uncertainty?

Aziz Alizadeh

The Mind is an Imperfect Time Machine.

Mental Time Travel comprises themental reconstruction of personalevents from the past (EpisodicMemory) and the mentalconstruction of possible events in thefuture.

Critical ingredient of mental timetravel is dissociation, or the ability tomaintain different mental statessimultaneously.

Mental Time Travel comprises themental reconstruction of personalevents from the past (EpisodicMemory) and the mentalconstruction of possible events in thefuture.

Critical ingredient of mental timetravel is dissociation, or the ability tomaintain different mental statessimultaneously.

Aziz Alizadeh

Varieties of Anticipatory Thinking

Three common forms are pattern matching, trajectory tracking, andconditional.

With pattern matching the circumstances of the present situationbring out similar events and clusters of cues in the past.

Sometimes anticipatory thinking requires people to get “ahead ofthe curve.” The curve is the trajectory of events, and getting aheadof the curve means preparing yourself for how the events areunfolding and how long it will take you to react.

The conditional form of anticipatory thinking is how we noticeconnections—events whose significance is conditioned by eachother.

With pattern matching the circumstances of the present situationbring out similar events and clusters of cues in the past.

Sometimes anticipatory thinking requires people to get “ahead ofthe curve.” The curve is the trajectory of events, and getting aheadof the curve means preparing yourself for how the events areunfolding and how long it will take you to react.

The conditional form of anticipatory thinking is how we noticeconnections—events whose significance is conditioned by eachother.

Aziz Alizadeh

Importance of Pattern Recognition

Humans use patterns to order the world and make sense of things in complex situations.

"To understand is to perceive patterns" - Isaiah Berlin

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What is the purpose of mental time travel orAnticipatory thinking ?

What is the purpose of mental time travel orAnticipatory thinking ?

Aziz Alizadeh

Memories of the Future• Rehearsing and storing many images of possible future

• Increasing capacity to respond to change

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Concept of Mental Model

• Mental Models serve critical function in thinking asthey allow individuals to give meaning to, and thusefficiently process, what otherwise would be morassof data. But they can cause us to overlook, reject, orforget important incoming information that is not inaccord with our assumptions and expectations.

• Mental models are resistant to change, even in theface of changing external circumstances.

• In analyzing complex problems, individuals rely on“what has worked before” and rarely updateframeworks (mental models) even when they can nolonger explain new data.

• Mental Models serve critical function in thinking asthey allow individuals to give meaning to, and thusefficiently process, what otherwise would be morassof data. But they can cause us to overlook, reject, orforget important incoming information that is not inaccord with our assumptions and expectations.

• Mental models are resistant to change, even in theface of changing external circumstances.

• In analyzing complex problems, individuals rely on“what has worked before” and rarely updateframeworks (mental models) even when they can nolonger explain new data.

Aziz Alizadeh

Importance of Mental (Patterns) Models

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Time Paths And Perceiving The Change Signals

• Human brain does not engage inpredictions; it engage in possible futures,in terms of “if that happens then I willtake this action.” these are Time Pathsinto an anticipated future.

Dr. David Ingvar

1924-2000These possible time paths are stored in human“memory of future”

Dr. David Ingvar

1924-2000These possible time paths are stored in human“memory of future”

If a particular information signal receivedfrom environment is relevant to TimePaths, data gets meaning and informationbecomes knowledge, otherwise it will beignored.

Aziz Alizadeh

Future Study is somehow knowing the anatomyof human ignorance.

Future Study is somehow knowing the anatomyof human ignorance.

Aziz Alizadeh

Knowing

“Knowing” improves your ability to“Knowing” improves your ability todevelop real discernment, greaterdevelop real discernment, greaterassociations, wise insightassociations, wise insightand better decision making.and better decision making.

ScanningScanning

PatterningPatterningIntegratingIntegrating

NoticingNoticing

SensingSensing

PatterningPatterningIntegratingIntegrating

IntuitingIntuiting

ValuingValuing

JudgingJudging

Self as agentSelf as agentof changeof change

VisualizingVisualizing

CognitiveCognitiveProcessesProcesses

CognitiveCognitiveCapabilitiesCapabilities

Aziz Alizadeh

Cognitive Capabilities ofKnowing

• Noticing– Attention and Focus– Things and Systems– Relationships– Relevance

• Scanning– Environmental “speed reading”– Early indicators– Filtering and amplifying– Environmental noise

• Patterning– Connections– Flow and Trends– Rhythm– Randomness

SS

II PP

SS

NN

SensingSensing–– External and internal sensorsExternal and internal sensors–– Openness and receptivityOpenness and receptivity–– ListeningListening–– Discernment and DiscretionDiscernment and Discretion

IntegratingIntegrating–– SensemakingSensemaking–– NetworkingNetworking–– Systems thinkingSystems thinking–– Spatial abilitySpatial ability

• Noticing– Attention and Focus– Things and Systems– Relationships– Relevance

• Scanning– Environmental “speed reading”– Early indicators– Filtering and amplifying– Environmental noise

• Patterning– Connections– Flow and Trends– Rhythm– Randomness

SensingSensing–– External and internal sensorsExternal and internal sensors–– Openness and receptivityOpenness and receptivity–– ListeningListening–– Discernment and DiscretionDiscernment and Discretion

IntegratingIntegrating–– SensemakingSensemaking–– NetworkingNetworking–– Systems thinkingSystems thinking–– Spatial abilitySpatial ability

Aziz Alizadeh

Cognitive Processes ofKnowing

• Visualizing– Power of thought

– Perspectives and Assumptions:(Individual, team andorganization)

– Creating focus

– Imagining

– Visualizing success

• Intuiting– Access to non-conscious mind

– Empathy

– Emotional Intelligence

– Trial and error

– Mindmapping

• Valuing– Alignment to vision,

mission, goals

– Building meaning

– Ambiguity and Uncertainty

– Unknown unknowns

• Judging– Frames of Reference

– Metaknowing

– Verication

– Heuristics

VV

VVII

JJ

• Visualizing– Power of thought

– Perspectives and Assumptions:(Individual, team andorganization)

– Creating focus

– Imagining

– Visualizing success

• Intuiting– Access to non-conscious mind

– Empathy

– Emotional Intelligence

– Trial and error

– Mindmapping

• Valuing– Alignment to vision,

mission, goals

– Building meaning

– Ambiguity and Uncertainty

– Unknown unknowns

• Judging– Frames of Reference

– Metaknowing

– Verication

– Heuristics

Aziz Alizadeh

Self as agent of change

• Know thyself

• Mental models

• Emotional Intelligence

• Learning and forgetting

• Mental defenses

• Modeling behaviors

• Knowledge sharing

• Dialogue

• Storytelling

• The Art of Persuasion

Internal:Internal: External:External:

Self as agentSelf as agentof changeof change

• Know thyself

• Mental models

• Emotional Intelligence

• Learning and forgetting

• Mental defenses

• Modeling behaviors

• Knowledge sharing

• Dialogue

• Storytelling

• The Art of Persuasion

“Knowing” is doing.Knowers are attentive, focused and ready to act.

Aziz Alizadeh

The self is a center of narrative gravity, a verbal autobiography.

Daniel C. Dennet

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The Important Role of Language

The ability to generate an infinite variety of combinations from a finite vocabularyis what characterizes human language, and sets it apart from the communicationsystems of all other species. Chomsky

Aziz Alizadeh

Language , Reality and Perception

Without a connection to the real world viaperception, a language system cannot know what itis talking about.

Language plays an important role in guiding ordirecting attention and in providing explanations viaanalogy or via connections which are not directlyaccessible to sensory perception.

Without a connection to the real world viaperception, a language system cannot know what itis talking about.

Language plays an important role in guiding ordirecting attention and in providing explanations viaanalogy or via connections which are not directlyaccessible to sensory perception.

Aziz Alizadeh

Importance of Complete Cognition in Future Study

Truth is a function of complete cognition based on holistic perception. Perceptionof reality is naturally holistic. Incomplete cognition is seeing the details but not the whole, seeing the tress but

not the forest.

Aziz Alizadeh

What is the Future Study then?

Future Study focus on the cognitive capabilities of observing andperceiving a situation, the cognitive processing that must occur tounderstand the external world and make maximum use of ourinternal thinking capabilities, and mechanism fro creating deepknowledge and acting on that knowledge.

Aziz Alizadeh

Cognition: Individual or Social Phenomena?

Cognition is a continuously evolvingprocess which relates presentperceptions via internal states topotential further perceptions andactions.

Cognition is not limited to the mind ofan individual agent, but involvesinteractions with other minds.

Cognition is a continuously evolvingprocess which relates presentperceptions via internal states topotential further perceptions andactions.

Cognition is not limited to the mind ofan individual agent, but involvesinteractions with other minds.

Aziz Alizadeh

Back to the Mental Model

Psycholinguists discovered that mental models are constructed from the meaningsof sentences, general knowledge, and knowledge of human communication.

Aziz Alizadeh

Extended Mind

Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere abstract realmof ideas, but must be part of an interaction loop, viaperception and action, with a concrete environment.

The environment supports cognition not just passively—by merely representing itself, but actively—by registeringand storing agent activities for future use, and thusfunctioning like an external memory.

The extended mind thesis could then be seen as theinterlinking of multiple brains, forming kinds ofassociative engines where their environmentalinteractions are iterations of series of simple patterncompleting- or pattern-creating real world actions(computations).

Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mere abstract realmof ideas, but must be part of an interaction loop, viaperception and action, with a concrete environment.

The environment supports cognition not just passively—by merely representing itself, but actively—by registeringand storing agent activities for future use, and thusfunctioning like an external memory.

The extended mind thesis could then be seen as theinterlinking of multiple brains, forming kinds ofassociative engines where their environmentalinteractions are iterations of series of simple patterncompleting- or pattern-creating real world actions(computations).

Aziz Alizadeh

Distributed Cognition

Distributed cognition means using network intelligence. Small things are more adaptable than big things. Networks adapt faster than hierarchies. Efficient organization means that the right activities are delegated to the right agents at

the right time.

Aziz Alizadeh

Social Construction of Reality: Towards Collective Mind

Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mereabstract realm of ideas, but must be part of aninteraction loop, via perception and action,with a concrete environment.The environment supports cognition not justpassively—by merely representing itself, butactively—by registering and storing agentactivities for future use, and thus functioninglike an external memory.

Social Constructivism suggests that the individual construct his or her world in thehead but with categories supplied by social relationships.

Cognition or mind cannot exist in a mereabstract realm of ideas, but must be part of aninteraction loop, via perception and action,with a concrete environment.The environment supports cognition not justpassively—by merely representing itself, butactively—by registering and storing agentactivities for future use, and thus functioninglike an external memory.

Aziz Alizadeh

Collective Mind from a Futurist Perspective

Futurists trying to study the ability of humans and humansystems to construct reality through language and the co-evolution of language with practice.

Futurists believe that different forms of network havedifferent cognitive consequences. Some network forms mayproduce ignorance, tunnel vision, and normalizing, whereasother forms may produce novel insights, original syntheses,and unexpected diagnoses.

Futurists are being aware that self-organization potentiallyproduces emergent cognitive capabilities that do not exist atthe individual level.

Futurists trying to study the ability of humans and humansystems to construct reality through language and the co-evolution of language with practice.

Futurists believe that different forms of network havedifferent cognitive consequences. Some network forms mayproduce ignorance, tunnel vision, and normalizing, whereasother forms may produce novel insights, original syntheses,and unexpected diagnoses.

Futurists are being aware that self-organization potentiallyproduces emergent cognitive capabilities that do not exist atthe individual level.

Aziz Alizadeh

Conclusion

Language is constitute of reality and that socialconstruction in language and in everyday practices of aparticular events or category, privileges certain interests.

Modes of knowing correspond with levels ofconsciousness, and since reality is a particular mode ofknowing, Reality is a level of consciousness.

knowledge, action and reality are not separate fromeach other.

Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Science andFuture Study are intertwined to each other.

Language is constitute of reality and that socialconstruction in language and in everyday practices of aparticular events or category, privileges certain interests.

Modes of knowing correspond with levels ofconsciousness, and since reality is a particular mode ofknowing, Reality is a level of consciousness.

knowledge, action and reality are not separate fromeach other.

Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Science andFuture Study are intertwined to each other.

Aziz Alizadeh

Thank You Very Much for Your Attention