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Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Farming Futures meeting
Climate changeMike May
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Agenda
• Welcome – Clare Wyatt & Mike May
• Climate change
- Mike May - introduction
- Eric Ober – water use
- Mark Stevens – crop protection
• Farm Walk
• Summing up discussion with coffee
• 16.45 finish
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Climate change
• Range of changes include
• Drier and warmer(?) summers
• Wetter winters
• More extreme weather events (wind, rain,
temperature
• These affect most aspects of farming –
e.g. cropping/land use, agronomy,
rotations, energy, biodiversity.
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Crop Protection under a
changing climate
Dr Mark Stevens
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Effects of climate change (1)
• Increased pest / disease survival
• Changes in predator survival
• Synchrony between pest & predator
• Increase diseases in spring
• More generations of pests per season.
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Effects of climate change (2)
• See more warm climate diseases/pests
• Earlier incidence of current pests/diseases
• Faster crop & weed growth
• Increased risk of root rots
• Harvest in wetter autumns?
• Storage under warmer conditions?
Warmer springs & summers (1)
• More generations of Beet Cyst Nematodes
• Multiplication/season increases
• Actions
- Increase rotation length / avoid host crops
- Consider trap crops in summer?
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Warmer springs & summers (2)
Silver Y moth
• Overwinter nearer UK
• Actions
- Greater vigilance
- Treat if threshold reached
- Action across host crops.
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Warmer springs & summers (3)
Red spider mite
• Likes hot weather (>25°C)
• Actions
- Able to consider varietal tolerance.
Warmer springs & summers (5)
Rhizomania
Distribution of rhizomania
in Europe
1952 Italy
1971 Yugoslavia
1972 Greece
1973 France
1974 Germany
1978 Czechoslovakia
1979 Austria
1979 Romania
1982 Hungary
1983 Switzerland
1983 Bulgaria
1983 Netherlands
1984 Belgium
1987 UK
1988 Spain
1997 Sweden
2000 Denmark
2002 Poland
19601950 1970 1980 1990 2000
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Climate change on rhizomania
• Warmer springs & summers
• Rhizomania inoculum levels in soils increase
• Need to:-
- Use tolerant varieties on infected or high risk
fields (build up less on tolerant varieties)
- Maintain adequate rotation
- Control weed beet
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Peach-potato aphid
(Myzus persicae)
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Warmer wetter winters (1)
• Increased aphid survival
• Increase in virus levels
• Actions
- Use seed treatments
(new ones better persistence)
- Ensure good hygiene
(e.g. cleaner loader clamps, set-
aside).
Comparison of predicted incidence of
virus yellows with actual in East: 1965-2005
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
0
20
40
60
80
100 With pest management
Without pest management
Pe
rce
nt
cro
ps
in
fec
ted
wit
h v
iru
s y
ell
ow
s
Year
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Myzus persicae at Rothamsted 1965 - 2007
Jan - Feb mean screen temperature °C
April
May
June
July
Fir
st
su
cti
on
tra
p r
eco
rd
r 2 = 0.793
P < 0.001
(2007 is shown in red)
Richard Harrington RRES
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Total numbers of Myzus persicae caught in
water traps
May June July Aug
Week number
Nu
mb
er o
f M
. p
ers
ica
e
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Virus Yellows - effects on yield
0
10
20
30
40
50
BYV BMYV BChV
Early June infection
Yie
ld d
ecre
ase (
%)
Beet yellows virus
Beet mild yellowing virus
Beet chlorosis virus
Broom’s Barn Research Centre
Warmer springs & winters
• Further actions- Seed treatments work
- BUT need to protect them
- Stewardship across crops
- Rotate insecticides in rotation
(e.g. potatoes, brassicas)
- Reduce infection by good hygiene.
Broom’s Barn Research Centre