Prof Amos Majule

Module Three

September 2011

Introduction to the module Objectives Definition of key concepts Climate change and agriculture Why focus on agriculture? Global and regional impacts on agriculture Adaptation and coping strategies Agricultural innovations and innovation systems

Suggested reading materials

Introduction to the module

Understand concepts of climate change, climate change impacts, vulnerability, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, agricultural innovations and innovation systems

Learn about the impacts of climate change on agriculture and understand the implications for human livelihoods

Understand agricultural innovations and innovation systems for adaptation and mitigation and factors that enable and impede these innovations

Definition of key concepts

A shift of climatic conditions in a directional incremental mode with values of climatic elements changing significantly and as long-term weather patterns that describe a region

Evidence of climate change could be detected over several

decades It is documented as one of the most challenging emerging

problems facing the world in the 21st century (IPCC 2007)

Cited changes indicate; -warming of temperatures during the 20th century -changes in precipitation across the globe -changes in sea level and ice and snow extent (Boko et al., 2007 and IPCC, 2001 & 2007) e.g., since 1978 annual average Arctic sea ice extent has

shrunk by 2.7% per decade Mt Kilimanjaro-reduction of ice cap

There may be both positive and negative effects of observed climate related parametres

-droughts, floods, heat waves Both direct and indirect -direct-increased heat by increased temperature -indirect-increase in malaria incidence Compounded by interactions with non-climatic stresses such

as socio-economic, political, cultural

Negative impacts of climate change are likely to hit the poorest people in the poorest countries hardest

Low income countries’ vulnerability tends to increase

Women are disproportionately vulnerable to the effects of climate change because of gender differences (Kyomuhendo & Muhanguzi, 2008 and Nelson & Sthathers, 2009).

The ability or inability of individuals and social groupings to respond to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and wellbeing (Kelly & Adger 2000)

High degree of exposure to risk, shocks and stress and

proneness to food insecurity (Ellis 2000) Varies widely across people in the same or different places

the likelihood that an individual or a group of individuals will be exposed to and adversely affected by dreadful conditions (Cutter, 2001).

Ability to absorb shocks and trends

Measure the magnitude of impacts

This is a function of four major factors; ◦ Environment ◦ Economic ◦ Social ◦ Institutional set up

Adaptation is usually distinguished from coping , which is conceptualised as a short term mechanism of dealing with immediate shocks

Coping begins when a household is forced to mobilize

resources to respond to crises Also responses to declining food availability and entitlements

in abnormal seasons or years

Adaptation includes responses and adjustments to actual or potential impacts of changing climatic conditions

Positive actions to change frequency or intensity of impacts (Adger et. al 2003)

The outcome of a process of considering simultaneously a wide variety of stressors—including, climatic factors (Reid & Vogel 2006)

Adjustment in the system in response to actual or expected stress factor (climate) and its impacts.

Long term measures suitable for a particular social or environment ◦ Suitable soil and water management practices ◦ Appropriate seed sowing methods ◦ Appropriate food storage facilities ◦ Appropriate crop types and seeds ◦ Appropriate building structures ets

The degree to which adjustments are possible in practices or structures of systems to projected or actual changes of climate

This is largely influenced by resilience within the system/community

(UNFCCC, 2002 and Reid & Vogel, 2006)

It is also the ability of farmers to respond successfully and make adjustments to climate change

This is done by drawing on resources and technologies

Adaptive capacity is the ability to ameliorate the negative consequences of climate change and take advantage of positive changes

Adaptive capacity is determined by technological ability, economic resources and human, political and social capital (Tol et al., 2004)

Potential or the ability of a system region or communities to adapt to the effects or impacts of a stressor

Developed countries Vs Developing countries

Within countries (Low and High Favoured areas)

Within communities (The rich, the middle and the poor)

Gender, age, health etc (at family level)

Human capital ◦ Knowledge on climate (scientific and local) ◦ Technical and political ◦ Education level/perceptions/health status

Information and technology ◦ Communication network (radio, TV, etc) ◦ Freedom of expression ◦ Technology transfer and packaging of information ◦ Innovative systems and capacity ◦ Early warning systems

Organisation and social capital ◦ State of CSO relationships ◦ Local coping networks (SACCOS, borrowing and lending

institutions) ◦ Social mobilization ◦ Density of institutional network

Material resource and infrastructure ◦ Transport system ◦ Water infrastructure ◦ Sanitation ◦ Energy supply and management

Political capital ◦ Modes of governance ◦ Leadership legitimacy ◦ Participation in decision making ◦ Decision and management capacity ◦ Sovereignty (trans boundary water course)

Wealth and financial capital ◦ Income and wealth distribution ◦ Economic marginalization ◦ Availability/accessing credits ◦ Fiscal incentives for risk management

Climate change and agriculture

Climate change directly affects agricultural production

Agriculture is inherently sensitive to climatic conditions

It is one of the most vulnerable sectors to risks and

Climate exerts significant pressure on the economic development of Africa, particularly for agriculture and water-resources

(Boko et al. 2007)

Agriculture is a mainstay of local livelihoods and national GDP in some countries in Africa

Climate change could exacerbate socio-economic instability for agro-based countries

Disruptions in food and water systems adversely affect development and livelihoods and add to the already existing challenges for poverty eradication

Agriculture is a vital source of food and the prevailing way of life in Africa

An average of 70% of the world population lives by farming,

and 40% of all exports are earned from agricultural products (WRI, 1996)

In this regard, agricultural and economic growth must rise in

order to realize basic development goals.

Negative climate change impacts on

agriculture

A drop in crop yields was the strongest negative deviation from the long-term trend in Europe in the last 43 years

A Heat wave in 2003 and a long period with low or no

precipitation led to droughts in large parts of Europe Greece, Portugal, France, Italy and Austria, suffered from yield

drops of up to 30% in this period

Tick increases are attributed to temperature increases in past decades-1980s

- Baltic countries; Sweden, Finland, Poland, Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania were heavily affected, including

-Central European countries; Switzerland, Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia

(Lindgren et al., 2000 )

Africa is under pressure from climate stresses and is highly vulnerable to their impacts

Estimates show one third of African people already live in

drought-prone areas and 220 million are exposed to drought each year (UNFCCC, 2007)

IPCC predicts that by 2020, yields from rain-fed agriculture in

some countries could be halved and agricultural production and access to food may be severely compromised.

(Vermuelen et al., 2008).

The ENSO floods in 1998 in East Africa resulted in human suffering and deaths, as well as extensive damage to infrastructure and crops in Kenya (Magadza, 2000)

Droughts in the Southern Africa region in 1991–1992 and

1997–1998 affected livelihoods and economies

The impacts of the 1991–1992 droughts in Zimbabwe are estimated to have been 9% of GDP (Benson & Clay, 1998)

Past trends on droughts and floods and poor harvests in 2005

caused hunger in most parts of the Tanzania (WHO, 2007)

In higher altitude and latitude regions, livestock are exposed to winter temperatures below their optimum

Increased precipitation as a consequence of climate change

could increase the risk of infections in livestock and people (Baylis & Githeko, 2006)

El Nino, an outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in 1997-1998 in

Somalia and Northern Kenya killed as much as 80% of the livestock and many cases were reported in Tanzania

The RVF was linked to flooding (WHO, 1998b) Heat stress and drought have negative impacts on animal

health and production of dairy products

In northwest Kenya, recurring droughts have led to increased competition for grazing resources, livestock losses and conflict

In 2005/6 drought, the Maasai communities in the Kajiando

district in Kenya lost 95% of their livestock and became food insecure (IDRC/CCAA 2009; SEI 2008)

The snow and glaciers of Mount Kilimanjaro, Ruwenzori in

Uganda and Mount Kenya are under threat

(IDRC/CCAA 2009).

Climate change does not only affect crops and livestock, but also the socio-economic context and human health

There are both direct and

structural impacts on agriculture

Positive climate change

impacts on agriculture

Heat wave 2003-Denmark and Finland profited from higher temperatures and lower rainfall

Earlier sowing date for certain crops due to an earlier start

Longer duration of the vegetation period

Model simulations suggest net effects of studied climate scenarios in agriculture in the USA’s economy over the 21st century are generally positive

Most commercial crops in the USA; wheat, rice, barley, oats, potatoes, and most vegetable crops, tend to respond favourably to increased CO2

A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to yield increases in the range of 15- 20%

(NAST 200)

Negative effects are overwhelming but climate change sometimes may have a positive impact

Mostly on structural changes in local economies and livelihood patterns under certain circumstances- localised benefits

-in a study done in Southern Zambia farmers became more enterprising than before due to climate induced hardships

-opportunity to cultivate crops in winter season after flood episodes (Mubaya 2010)

There may also be a few positive impacts (localised benefits) that can be capitalised on to improve the livelihoods of farmers all districts

(small scale farmers

continue to irrigate crops due to overflowing dams after floods in Zambia)

Organic agriculture through conservation farming

Lowering the need for slash and burn cropping

Postponing harvests

Reducing burning

Conversion of agricultural land to forestry

(Alig 2003)

Biofuel production by smallholder farmers and ‘out-grower’ or local contracted farmer arrangements (Sulle & Nelson 2009

Coping and adaptation

strategies

Desperate strategies that farmers take to cope in the immediate term and cannot sustain the household for long

Examples of coping strategies include;

-consuming crops before maturity due to hunger,

-borrowing money or food

-disposal of key productive assets

Examples of documented adaptation to climate change in Africa include;

-crop diversification - Irrigation - construction of water reservoirs - accumulating food surpluses - use of drought resistant varieties (Boko et al. 2007; Adger et al. 2007; Cooper et al. 2006)

Identify a case study in a country of your choice

1. What climate change issue/s are farmers faced with

2. List impacts from these climate changes

3. What response strategies do these farmers employ

4. Categorize each strategy under either coping or adaptation and give reasons why

THANK YOU