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Presentation introduces the concept of Climate Scenarios and Analogues. This was during a training held in Nairobi in late 2013. Presenters were David Arango and Edward Jones who work for CCAFS - CIAT. Find out more about the work of CCAFS in East Africa: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/regions/east-africa
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Climate Analogues Nairobi, Kenya
David Arango and Edward Jones
Researchers CCAFS-CIAT
18th November 2013
1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013
1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013
What is the Climate Analogues approach?
The Climate Analogues approach identifies areas where the climate today is similar
(analogous) to the future projected climate of another area.
• Jointly developed by the Walker Institude (University of Reading, UK) and the program “Decision and Policy Analysis” (DAPA) at CIAT
• Financed by CCAFS theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change
• In colaboration with other contributing people and institutions
What is the Climate Analogues approach?
Definition of a Climate Analogue
• The term climate analogues describes two sites that share similar climatic conditions.
• The two sites may be separated geographically and/or temporally (i.e. similar climatic conditions experienced at different periods of time) as climatic conditions change and migrate.
• Compares locations based on similarity in precipitation and temperature but it is also flexible to incorporate other input variables (e.g. soils, infrastructure, social and economic conditions).
Concept of a Climate Analogues
Possible analogues
BACKWARD
• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?
MY SITE (future)
OTHER SITE (s) (current)
Possible analogues
FORWARD
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the future?
MY SITE (current)
OTHER SITE (s) (future)
Possible analogues
NONE
• Where can I find the present climate of my site in the world currently?
MY SITE (current)
OTHER SITE (s) (current)
The climate data use by analogues
Present climate: WorldClim
= interpolated data set of climatic observations , between the years 1950-2000
Future climate:
- downsaclaed projected conditions for the decade 2030 (i.e. 2020-2049)
- scenarios: A1B, A2,B1
- there are 24 GCMs and also an “Ensemble” option which is the mean of all GCMS
-30.1
30.5
Mean annual
temperature (ºC)
0
12084
Annual
precipitation (mm)
Emissions scenarios
• The emissions scenarios are the results of models used to simulate the future production of greenhouse gases (GHGs) with global development following different socio-economic focus points. (i.e. introduction of renewable energy vs. continued dependence on fossil fuels).
• The different scenarios forecast different GHGs levels in the atmosphere which then translate into variations in future predicted climatic conditions.
How do you calculate climatic similiarity?
Climatic similarity is calculated as a vector in n dimensional space. n = number of input parameters
Climatic Distance CCAFS Similarity Index
How do you calculate climatic similarity?
m: number of time periods (in months, days) v: number of variables V: variable (temperature, precipitation) W: weight f: scenario at reference site (future climate) p: scenario in search range (present climate)
Climatic Distance CCAFS Similarity Index
Input Parameters Growing season of interest
- Entire year - Growing season of a specific crop - Rainy season -… Seasonal variability
Input Parameters Climate models
• You may choose between any of the 24 GCMs
• Or the average of all 24 GCMs = Ensemble Reduces uncertainty from using a single model
Input Parameters Climatic variables
Combinations of bioclimatic
variables also available
Temperature only
Temperature and precipitation
Precipitation only
When using multiple variables it is possible to vary the weight of each
depending on the importance that you want it to have in the overall analysis
• Climate Analogues is available for use through:
• Functional in Firefox, Google Chrome and IE
After an analysis…
• Visually investigate the results
• Rerun with different variables
• Download results and information
• Download the code to use in R
• …Validate results with other data sources
Lets look at an example from the online tool
1. What is the Climate Analogues approach?
2. Applications of the Climate Analogues approach
18th November 2013
What are the application of Climate Analogues?
-Explain differences in crop yields - Identification of crops and varieties that are adapted to specific growing conditions
- Evaluation of crop growth models - Farms of the Future -Exchange of genetic material and collaborative research
Farms of the Future
Identification of sites to hold an interchange between agriculturalist and share climate adaptation techniques and experiences
The Climate Analogues concept in the field
Possible analogues
BACKWARD
• Where can I find the future climate of my site today?
MY SITE (future)
OTHER SITE (s) (current)
– Different combinations of variables
• Temperature and precipitation
• Temperature only
• Precipitation only
• Combinations with bioclimatic variables
(Rainfall total, temperature of hottest month…)
– Growing period of interest: entire year, specific growing season, rainy season…
– Thresholds and GCM agreement: i.e the closest 5/10/15 and where 60/70/80 % of GCMs agree
– Before selecting a final site we also need to consider socio-economic parameters, infrastructure, cultural boundaries,
soils etc.
Identifying exchange sites for FOTF
“Which other places currently experience the future projected climate of a reference
site, and from which we can transfer climate adaptation and management
techniques?
Farms of the Future- Tanzania
Reference site: Yamba, Tanzania
Lushoto CCAFS site
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Njombe
Nyombo
Mbinga
Farms of the Future in Tanzania Analogue site map
Graphs comparing the future climate at the reference site (Yamba) and the current climate at potential exchange sites
The best analogue sites are those that have a current climate more similar to the future projected climate of the reference site Producers are taken from the reference site to investigate the selected analogue sites.
Lushoto Mbuzii Yamba
Morogoro
Mwitikilwa
Nyombo
Njombe
Mbinga
Kinole
Journey through analogue sites Village visits Starting point
Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and
water conservation technique
-Coffee nursery
-Stoves
Masasi Village: -Water source
-Fish pond
-Biogas
Mtama Village: - Bee keeping
-Market value chain social
enterprise visit
- Input supply Stockists
-Weather station visit
- Bean trial visit
- Tree nursery visit
Farms of the Future in Tanzania A journey to possible future conditions of Yamba
Exchange of genetic resources
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Senahú, Guatemala (Longitude= -89.779, Latitude= 15.477) Banana: all year round Backward analysis: Where can I find my future climatic conditions currently?
Share the benefits of genetic resources?
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Rwanda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441) Banana: all year round Backward analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?
How to apply the Climate Analogues approach for the implementation of the TIRFAA project?
Rubaya, Rwanda (Longitude= 30.675, Latitude= -0.441) Banana: all year round Backward analysis: Where can I find my current climatic conditions in the future?
- Helps to improve the selection of future plant varieties and identify which varieties have proven to be most adaptable to the given climatic conditions. - Construct scenarios for users to observe the opportunities to improve access to genetic materials from outside of their country. - Identify which plant varieties may be most useful for other parts of the world to fulfil the needs to adapt to changing climatic conditions. - Identify areas where there is urgent need to conserve specific genetic materials.
Climate Analogues & TIRFAA
A few more words… • There still exists significant uncertainty in future climate projections
and their impacts on agricultural systems, especially at the local level.
• Until now, the adaptation capacity of communities has been a factor that has rarely been taken into account in global policies
The use of Climate Analogues significantly improves knowledge of possible
management techniques under changing climatic
conditions, and supports the identification of appropriate
adaptation strategies.
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change 1 one
>> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
Gracias!
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Contactanos !
– David Arango
– Edward Jones
