CCA Annual Convention Keynote: Quenching the Thirst for Mobile Broadband by Mike Schabel

COPYRIGHT © 2011 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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Quenching the Thirst for Data: Maximizing Your Most Precious Asset, Spectrum Mike Schabel Sept. 17th, 2013


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Nokia N90 2 megapixel

DEVICE CAPABILITY TRENDS MORE MEGAPIXELS, LARGER SCREENS, FASTER PROCESSORS

2011 2012 2013 2007 2005 2002

Sanyo SCP 5300 0.3 megapixel

Nokia N95 5 megapixel

HTC EVO 3D 5 megapixel – 3D!

Nokia Lumia 1020 41 megapixel

Samsung S4 16 megapixel iPhone 5

8 megapixel iPhone 5s, 16 megapixel

64-bit software, 40x faster then original iPhone


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ADOPTION RATE OF MOBILE “COMPUTERS” DRIVE THE NEED FOR A WIRELESS ULTRABROADBAND NETWROK

TABLETS DRIVE A WHOLESALE SHIFT TO CLOUD SERVICES (AND WIRELESS ULTRA BROADBAND)


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Quarters After Launch

25

30

15

20

35

10

5

0

40

6 5 4 3 2 1 0

iPod

iPhone

iPad

Glo

bal sh

ipm

ents

(m

m)

CAGR 2012-2015 Smartphones = 22%

Tablets = 35%

10 Blackberries = 1 iPhone

3 iPhones = 1 iPad

3 iPads = 1 data card

DEVICE PENETRATION TRAFFIC BY DEVICE TRAFFIC BY TYPE

Source: Bell Labs modeling, 2012

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Tra

ffic

(EB/m

onth

)

‘16 ‘15 ‘14 ‘13 ‘12 ‘11 ‘16 ‘15 ‘14 ‘13 ‘12 ‘11

M2M

Dongle/Tablet

Smartphone

Feature phone

All other

File transfer

Video comms

Audio stream

Video stream

4.2

2.8

1.7

1.0

0.5 0.2

45x – 85x growth in mobile traffic

CONSUMER MARKET TRENDS MOBILE DEVICE CAPABILITIES DRIVE CONSUMPTION


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• EXPONENTIAL DATA

TRAFFIC GROWTH

• EXPONENTIAL CAPEX

EXPENSE GROWTH

• RELATIVELY FLAT DATA

ARPU GROWTH

WHERE DOES YOUR PROFITABILITY END? HISTORICAL SERVICE PROVIDER ECONOMICS

LOWER PER BIT COST

SOLUTIONS NEED TO BE

DEPLOYED IF PROFITABILITY

IS TO BE MAINTAINED

Source: Bell Labs Analysis

0

5

10

15

20

25

35

40

45

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$/s

ub/m

onth

0

200

400

600

1000

1400

1600

Mb/d

ata

pla

n s

ub/m

onth

DATA ARPU CAPEX DATA TRAFFIC

30

800

1200

1800

DATA ARPU

CAPEX

DATA

TRAFFIC


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2x

>10x

1.5-2x

MORE SPECTRUM

(Hz)

MORE SPECTRAL

EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)

MORE SPATIAL

EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub)

INCREASE CAPACITY

THREE METHODS TO MAXIMIZE SPECTRUM ADDRESSING THE THIRST FOR DATA


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INDUSTRY RESPONSE – MORE/FREE SPECTRUM AT&T Wi-Fi MOBILITY CASE STUDY

"All of our smartphones are sold with Wi-Fi capability. We know that our users are aware of the Wi-Fi availability and the AT&T brand on our hotspots. We know demand is coming from our customers. They

appreciate just being able to connect everywhere." Aaron Coleman, director of product management, AT&T Wi-Fi Services

OVER 32K HOTSPOTS

IN THE US

OVER 402K HOTSPOTS

WORLDWIDE

HOTSPOTS IN MORE

THAN 100 COUNTRIES

2.7 B CONNECTIONS

IN 2012

80%

CONNECTIONS MADE BY AT&T MOBILITY CUSTOMERS

Source: AT&T 2013

1 2

3

DEPLOY WI-FI IN HOTSPOTS FORM INTERNATIONAL

ROAMING AGREEMENTS

ENCOURAGE CELLULAR SUBSCRIBERS TO USE WI-FI

FREE

FREE, UNLIMITED

ACCESS

AUTOMATIC

CONNECTIONS DOES NOT COUNT AGAINST

MOBILE DATA PLAN

4 THE RESULTS

MORE SPECTRUM


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CARRIER GRADE Wi-Fi HOTSPOT 2.0 & ANDSF

Wi-Fi@Home

Homespots

Private Hotspots

Metro Hotspots

Citynets

Mi-Fi

Carrier Cloud

Internet IP edge

WLAN

Gateway

Wireless packet core

• Wi-Fi TO Wi-Fi & Wi-Fi TO 3G/4G INTERWORKING

• DEVICE SELECTS BEST Wi-Fi

• ACCESS BASED ON SIM – NO USER INTERVENTION

• AUTOMATICALLY DETECT ROAMING RELATIONSHIPS

MORE SPECTRUM


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WHAT IS LTE

WHAT IS LTE & WHO IS DEPLOYING MARKET HAS MOVED – LAGGARDS WON’T BE REWARDED

SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY

LTE INCREASES CAPACITY, PEAK RATES & COVERAGE

• Increased link capacity

• Multiple-input, multiple-output UL & DL

• Collaborative MIMO (UL)

• Overcome multi-path interference

FLAT IP, SCALABLE

MIMO

INCREASED SPECTRAL

EFFICIENCY

• OFDMA (DL) / SC-FDMA (UL)

• Simplified Rx design, Cheaper UE

• Scalable - go beyond 5 MHz limitation

• Reduction in number of logical nodes

• Separation of user plane and control plane

• Backhaul based on IP / MPLS transport

FROM AN ERLANG TO BIT MODEL

WHO HAS DEPLOYED LTE IN NA


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Source: Alcatel-Lucent

20% Volume

increase/day

Throughput (kbps)

Latency (ms)

Packet Loss (%)

3G

LTE

iPhone 5 Performance 3G vs LTE

347%

-53%

-40%

LTE PERFORMANCE IMPROVED CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE

SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY


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MIGRATION TO LTE IS PAYING OFF DATA ARPU GROWING

LTE SUBSCRIBERS SPENDING MORE ON MOBILE DATA DRIVING HIGHER ARPU

Source: Mobidata

Average Usage by Technology

45%

23%

37%

60%

32%

45%

Japan South Korea US

Data ARPU as % of Total ARPU

2011 2013

Source: Alcatel-Lucent

Data Led

ARPU

Growth

SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY


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DEPLOYING LTE WHY OVERLAY IS BETTER THEN CRAN

Overlay minimizes potentially costly disruptions

Overlay: better RF coverage, BBU capacity, less SW complexity, and greater flexibility in terms of coverage

NEED DEDICATED PERFORMANCE

CAP INVESTMENT IN 2G/3G

AVOID DISRUPTION OF

2G/3G NETWORKS

SPEED TO MARKET

Interoperability with other vendor equipment AVOID VENDOR

LOCK-IN

Respond quickly to market competition. Overlay is faster and easier to deploy than CRAN.

Cap 2G/3G spend and refarm spectrum towards a more cost effective 4G LTE network

SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY


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VoLTE DEPLOYMENT CREATE A SINGLE NETWORK (4G) – SUNSET 2G/3G

Robust Header Control (RoHC) and Transmission Time Interval (TTI) bundling boost UE power at the cell edge.

VoLTE’s wide band enables HD voice with background noise filtration. Deposition OTTs.

HIGHER QoE (HD VOICE)

SIMULTANEOUS 4G VOICE AND DATA

BETTER CELL EDGE PERFORMANCE

GREATER SPECTRAL

EFFICIENCY

For a 10 MHz band, VoLTE offers as much as a 700% capacity gain vs. GSM CS voice.

Single antenna, lower cost, better battery life. No need to “fall back” to 3G speed.

REDUCE 2G/3G INVESTMENT BY OFFERING 4G VOICE & VIDEO OVER LTE - REFARM THE SPECTRUM

MORE SPECTRUM


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CARRIER AGGREGATION FOR COMBINING MULTIPLE LTE CARRIERS

20 MHz

FREQ

CO-ORDINATED MULTI-POINT (COMP)

INTERFERENCE AVOIDANCE NETWORK MIMO

DL 300 Mb/s UL 75 Mb/s 20MHz 4x4 MIMO

DL 3 Gb/s

UL 1.5 Gb/s 100 MHz (CA) 8x8 MIMO

TARGETS FOR PEAK RATE

SON & HetNet ENHANCEMENTS (eICIC, Cov/Cap Optimization)

MIMO ENHANCEMENTS (MU, SU uplink and downlink)

REL 10, 11

LTE LTE-ADVANCED

20 MHz

SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: LTE-ADVANCED HIGHER THROUGHPUT, PEAK RATE, SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY

GREATER EXPERIENCE AND GREATER NETWORK EFFICIENCIES

SPECTRAL EFFICIENCY


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SPECTRUM MAXIMIZATION: SMALL CELLS GREATER SPATIAL EFFICIENCY

RESIDENTIAL ENTERPRISE METRO

HOMES OFFICES PUBLIC PLACES

CONSUMER OWNED BUSINESS OWNED OPERATOR OWNED

PRIVATE INDOOR USE PRIVATE/PUBLIC INDOOR USE PUBLIC INDOOR/OUTDOOR USE

• UTILIZES EXISTING SPECTRUM

• COVERAGE & CAPACITY

• RAPIDLY DEPLOYABLE (PLUG

AND PLAY)

• IMPROVED CUSTOMER

LOYALTY

• LOWER COST TO SERVE

• INNOVATIVE APPLICATIONS

• PROVEN – COMMERCIALLY

DEPLOYED GLOBALLY

SPATIAL EFFICIENCY


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2x

>10x

1.5-2x

MORE SPECTRUM

(Hz)

MORE SPECTRAL

EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz)

MORE SPATIAL

EFFICIENCY (Bits/Sec/Hz/Sub)

INCREASE CAPACITY

QUENCHING THE MOBILE DATA THIRST

• Wi-Fi

• HOTSPOT 2.0 / ANDSF

• VoLTE (REFARM 2G/3G)

• AUCTIONS

• LTE

• LTE-ADVANCED

• VoLTE

• SMALL CELLS


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