www.fire-italia.org Business models for buildings performanceDario Di Santo, FIRE

International conference on Energies for Future Urban Environment 3 July 2013, Roma

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www.fire-italia.org

The Italian Federation for the Rational use of Energy is a no-profit association that promotes energy efficiency, supporting energy manager, ESCos and other companies dealing with energy.

Besides the activities directed to its nearly 500 members, FIRE operates under an implementing agreement with the Ministry of Economic Development to manage the Italian energy manager network since 1992.

In order to promote energy efficiency FIRE cooperates and deals with public authorities, energy technology and service companies, consultants, medium and large consumers, universities and associations to promote best practices and improve the legislation.

FIRE

www.fire-italia.org

EGE certification Energy Management Experts

UNI CEI 11339

www.secem.eu Gestione Energia magazine

www.fire-italia.org

FIRE activities and projects

3

www.hreii.eu/demo www.enforce-een.eu

www.ener-supply.eu

www.soltec-project.eu

www.esd-ca.eu

Among closed projects:- www.e-quem.enea.it - www.eu-greenlight.org- www.enerbuilding.eu- Eurocontract- ST-Esco

Besides to dedicated meetings, FIRE organises the Enermanagement conference, workshops, and training courses. It implements dissemination campaigns, surveys, market analysis and studies. Among the subjects with which FIRE has cooperated there are ENEA, GSE, RSE, large companies, universities, associations, agencies and trade fairs organizers.

Federazione Italiana per l’uso Razionale dell’Energia

2 di 16

EFFICIENZA ENERGETICA E BARRIERE NON ECONOMICHE

Obiettivi del documento

L’efficienza energetica è considerata la migliore soluzione per rispondere ai cambiamenti climatici,

ridurre la dipendenza energetica dall’estero, aumentare la competitività delle imprese, contenere il

problema della fuel poverty e conseguire gli obiettivi del Pacchetto clima energia dell’Unione

Europea. La ragione principale è il rapporto costi benefici, decisamente più favorevole delle fonti

rinnovabili elettriche e della carbon sequestration, come mostra la figura seguente.

Figura 1. Curva McKinsey di abbattimento della CO2.1

Per l’Italia il beneficio aumenta, considerando la nota carenza di risorse primarie – che ha portato

la dipendenza dall’estero all’85% circa – e la presenza di un’importante industria attiva nella

produzione di tecnologie per l’efficientamento energetico. Quest’ultima potrebbe trarre un doppio

vantaggio da uno sviluppo accelerato del mercato italiano, potendo unire al fatturato nazionale le

opportunità legate alle prospettive di crescita a livello mondiale.

1 Impact of the financial crysis on carbon economics – Version 2.1 of the global greenhouse gas abatement cost curve.

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Some data about buildings and energy efficiencySources: RAEE 2011 ENEA, ENEA.

4

Impieghi finali di energia per settore 2011

134,9 Mtep

-2,6 % rispetto 2010

24,2%

31,5%

34,4%

2,2% 5,1% 2,5% Industria

Trasporti

Usi civili

Agricoltura

Usi non energetici

Bunkeraggi

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Commercio Alberghi e ristoranti Credito e asssicurazioni Pubbica Amministrazione

Altri servizi cons elett/add terziario cons energ/add terziario

Rispetto al 2007 i due piani di intervento comporterebbero una riduzione di consumo complessivo di circa 6 e 17 Mtep, rispettivamente per lo scenario BAU e BAT, pari nell’ordine al 4,5% e 12,8% del consumo iniziale. Se si prende a riferimento la cosiddetta previsione “Primes 2007 Baseline”[1], che assegna all’Italia un consumo tendenziale di 162,6 Mtep al 2020, il calo di consumo è del 22,4% nello scenario BAU e del 29,1% per lo scenario BAT.

18,20%

11,90% 14,20%

16,90% 17,00%

11,10%

6,80% 3,90%

Distribuzione del Parco edilizio residenziale in Italia (rif. 2010) Fonte ENEA- CRESME

Stock edifici per anno di costruzione

Prima del 1919

dal 1920 al 1945

dal 1946 al 1961

dal 1962 al 1971

dal 1972 al 1981

dal 1982 al 1991

dal 1992 al 2001

dal 2002 al 2008

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

20,1%

9,1% 11,1% 12,2% 10,8%

Edifici costruiti prima della Legge 373/76

Edifici costruiti dopo della Legge 373/76

Edifici a priorità di intervento

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

ante 1920 1920/1945 1946/1971 1972/1991 1992/oggi

Incidenza percentuale per fasce di costruzioneNORDCENTROSUD+ISOLE

Some data about Italy:Residential buildings: 12 MillionsOffices: 65.000Schools: 52.000Hotels: 6.000around 65% was built before 1980...

Civil uses: 34,5%

Continuos growth of energy consumption in the tertiary sector with scarce energy efficiency

Good performance of energy efficiency solution in the McKinsey GHG abatement cost curve

0"

5.000"

10.000"

15.000"

20.000"

25.000"

30.000"

35.000"

40.000"

0:00"

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6:00"

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10:00"

12:00"

14:00"

16:00"

18:00"

20:00"

22:00"

MW#

giovedì#+#16/5/2013#

Pompaggio"

Eolico"

Termo"

PV"

Idro"

Geo"

(da>"Terna,"elaborazione"FIRE)"

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

5

The evolution of the energy s y s t e m , i n c l u d i n g n e w resources wor ldwide and geopolit ical and structural changes, makes the prices volatile and difficult to predict.The rush towards a new (and smarter) energy infrastructure shall overcome the friction b e t w e e n t r a d i t i o n a l a n d renewable energy sources, cen t ra l i zed and d i f f used generation, and energy waste against energy efficiency.

2001: demand 52-19 GW supply 71 GW (49 GW available) fuel quota 40 €/MWh system charges 0 €/MWh

2011: demand 56-22 GW supply 118 GW (76 GW from

thermoelectric) fuel quota 80 €/MWh system charges 24 €/MWh

Data sources: Terna, AEEG.

A new energy market

0"

5.000"

10.000"

15.000"

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30.000"

35.000"

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0:00"

2:00"

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6:00"

8:00"

10:00"

12:00"

14:00"

16:00"

18:00"

20:00"

22:00"

MW#

martedì#+#4/5/2010#

Pompaggio"

Eolico"

Termo"

PV"

Idro"

Geo"

(dati Terna, elaborazione FIRE)

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Energy efficiency in three steps

Energy efficiency

No waste of energy

Improved technologies

Renewable and localized energy

sources

Low costBehavioural change

Limited effect per client

Can be costlyNo core business

Effect per client varies

Usually costlyNPV of produced energy?

Limited specific power

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Energy efficiency within a formula

cash flow => ex ante energy bill - ex post energy bill

Lack of M&V and KPI

Linked to building uses and weather

Linked to building uses and weather

Linked to project and design

Linked to management

The direct connection between the cash flows related to energy saving and end-use makes it difficult to assess and manage the risks. Some points:

metering and good design and management (technical part and skills); distribution of risks on numerous projects (financial part); smart regulations and guarantee fund (policy).

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

A multiplicity of solutions with different sizes and type

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Financing: a question of size

Small: credit through bank agencies, no project financing; need for a diffused commercial and technical structure; request for turnkey and full service solutions.

Medium: agency or corporate banking; more ordinary commercial and technical structure; request mainly for turnkey and full service solutions.

Large: corporate o project financing; need for a structure capable to manage large projects; customized solutions.

Good opportunities for innovative business models, such as cooperatives, crowdfunding, investment funds, European Investment Bank programs, clustering of small operators and management of diffused partners.

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Different solutions and approaches for different users

Energy efficiency project

Energy intensive industry

No energy intensive industry

Tertiary

Public administration

Residential

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

To develop energy efficiency the following aspects are to be considered:

Energy audits and, even better, the energy management systems are essential to have reliable baseline data on which to build credible business plan. They are also needed to access some incentives schemes (e.g. white certificates).

Energy efficiency is made in the territory in favor of the territory and of the system. However, there is a lack of structures capable of operating in a distributed manner on small projects (or capable of aggregating them in favor of larger operators).

ESCOs represent an opportunity, especially for the civil sector and the buildings, but usually there is no adequate development (in term of capitalization, balance sheet, history, etc.) and no adequate risk management for single business case.

Energy efficiency in buildings is facilitated by the standardization and the replicability of the available solutions, and by a minor attention to the pay back period of the investments (if compared to industry), but some solutions are not so cost-effective (e.g. building envelope interventions) and require some form of support.

Many opportunities are dropped for lack of information or qualified operators. It is essential that the policy makers support actions to overcome these issues in the interest of the market and the users.

No business model grows well in a system where the rules change frequently and with lack of coherence.

Considerations

Nevertheless some interesting business model are beginning to arise, both on private initiative and based on public support.

Some background

Energy efficiency

Business models

Considerations

ENEL-FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

The project aims at analyzing innovative skills, business models and public policy support for the promotion of energy efficiency in the public building sector by means of the development of the ESCO model, also by linking such enhancement to the design of an industrial policy consistent with the Green Growth Strategy.

The project will look at:

the level of integration of available technologies, the required skills and competences necessary to manage such integration and the interaction among different actors and stakeholders (public and private).

the barriers (financial, administrative and legal) hindering the massive diffusion of efficient technologies for the building sector on a larger scale, preventing an integrated and holistic approach – instead of fragmented and sectoral one – to take off.

the concrete implementation of innovative and successful business models to enhance energy efficiency in the public building sector (e.g. ESCOs, utilities, green banks, etc).

The project will focus on the Italian situation in this phase and the document will be ready at the beginning of 2014.

The ENEL Foundation - FIRE study

www.fire-italia.org

Contact: disanto@fire-italia.org

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