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This Climate Action Tracker update re-evaluates the required level of global and regional levels of ambition for 2020, 2025 and 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C, based on a new analysis of the IPCC AR5 emissions database. The update also looks at past and current global decarbonisation trends and related to that at recent policy developments in the USA, which have announced to reduce emissions from the electricity sector. This presentation was held during a side event of the UNFCCC session in Bonn, June 2014.
Citation preview
Below 2°C or 1.5°C degrees
depends on rapid action from both
Annex I and Non-Annex I countries Side-event: Bonn, 7 June 2014
Outline
▶ 1.5°C and 2°C emissions pathways
Michiel Schaeffer, Climate Analytics
▶ Decarbonisation
Marie Lindberg, Climate Analytics
▶ Effort-sharing
Hanna Fekete, Ecofys
▶ Country Updates
Hanna Fekete, Ecofys and Louise Jeffery, PIK
What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C?
• New analysis of scenarios assessed by IPCC WGIII AR5, including
those in the WGIII scenario database
• Analyse emissions reductions required to meet climate goals
• Scenario analysis method:
• Ensure emissions fall within historical limits up to 2010
• This excludes a few studies whose emissions diverge
significantly below or above historic emissions
• Limit below 2°C with high probability
• 85% or greater likelihood
• IPCC based on 430-480 ppm CO2eq range
• Most (90% of total) likely (>66%) probability of below 2°C
• This scenario is the same that reduces warming to at, or below,
1.5°C in 2100 with about 50% probability
What does it take to keep warming below 2°C and 1.5°C?
• Total GHG emissions would need to be zero between 2060 and
2080, and likely negative thereafter
• About one in ten chance of exceeding 2°C
• Contrast with IPCC WGIII 430-480 ppm CO2eq scenario range
where GHG emissions eventually have to decline towards zero by
2100
• One in three or greater chance of exceeding 2°C
What does it take to keep warming below 2° C and 1.5°
C?
• The IPCC AR5 warns that “Delays in mitigation through 2030 or
beyond could substantially increase mitigation costs in the decades
that follow and the second-half of the century”
• Delay of reductions to 2020 in ‘likely’ 2°C pathway increases costs
by roughly 40% over 2030-2100 (AR5)
• High-probability 2°C and 1.5°C pathways require low energy
demand and immediate action – lack of data on possibility and
implications of delay
Timeline for global GHG emissions to peak and decline
towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
Timeline for global CO2 emissions to peak and decline
towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
• ‘Likely below’ (>66% probability) 2°C pathway
requires full decarbonisation of energy sector by
around 2060
• High probability 2°C pathway, has zero CO2
emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industry
early as 2045 and no later than 2065
• Negative thereafter
Global CO2 emissions decline towards zero by mid-
century for high probability 2°C pathway and 1.5°C
Reversal of current recarbonisation is critical
From 2000-2010, the energy sector saw a reversal of the decarbonisation trend
that took place over the preceding 30 years from 1970 - 2000.
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IEA 2012
Carbon intensity for likely 2°C pathway
Carbon intensity rates will have to decrease rapidly in the coming decades:
Decreasing by -3% annually in the 2030s and close to this level through the
2040s, before gradually alleviating and decreasing by -1.6% annually in the 2050s.
-
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
MTC
O2\EJ
CarbonIntensity
Historical-2000-2011
MedianValues
5thPercen le
95thPercen le
Linear(Historical-2000-2011)
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based on numbers from IPCC AR5
Renewable energy: good news for decarbonisation
• Remarkable trend seen in renewable energy the last two
years
• In 2012, renewables made up just over half of total net
additions to electric generating capacity from all sources in
2012.
• The effect on global GHG emissions from increased
renewables is still leveled out by increased use of coal and
rising energy consumption.
• Still, this could be the start of a new positive trend paving
the way to a full decarbonisation of the energy sector
Example: Carbon intensity for the USA
• Over the past ten years, there has been a substantial
decline in CO2 emissions in the US energy sector.
• The decline corresponds to a 15% decrease in carbon
intensity from 2002 to 2012 (about 1.4% per annum
improvement),
• primarily as a result of a fuel switch from coal to gas.
• The new policy implies an economy-wide decarbonisation
rate of about 0.9% per annum, significantly lower than that
achieved in the last decade.
• This is not as fast as is needed for a 2°C decarbonisation
pathway, and could therefore mean an actual
deterioration of the current decarbonisation rate
Example: Carbon intensity for the USA historically
and under different scenario projections
Source: Climate Action Tracker calculation based Cat update 2013
Global GHG emissions towards zero for 2°C and 1.5°C
~ -30%
Sharing the reductions in 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org
~ -30%
GH
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mis
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-100%
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0%
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Annex I Non - Annex I
OECD 1990 EITs LAM MAF ASIA
Sharing the reductions in 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org
-100%
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Sharing the reductions in 2030
www.climateactiontracker.org
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www.climateactiontracker.org
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www.climateactiontracker.org
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Non-
Sharing the reductions - Summary
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Annex I countries will need to reduce emissions beyond global average, for some
approaches significantly
• Trading of emission allowances necessary as expected developed country emission
reductions of developed countries go beyond mitigation potentials
China: substantial emission increase even with potential
absolute cap
• Personal statement by high level official on absolute caps starting in 2016, 20-25%
non-fossil energy and peaking emissions at 11 Gt in 2030.
• Potential emission targets follow current ambition trends
• Non-fossil energy target may go beyond this
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
20
02
20
05
20
08
20
11
20
14
20
17
20
20
20
23
20
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20
29To
tal G
HG
em
issi
on
s [M
tCO
2e/
a]
Current policy projections(CAT assessment)high/low
Peaking in 2030
25% non-fossil in 2030
Pledge pathway (45%,CAT assessment)
Historic emissions, incl.LULUCF
US: New regulation important but insufficient step
• New regulation aims to reduce GHG emissions from the electricity sector by 30% below
2005 by 2030
• First comprehensive federal regulation of power sector and positive development beyond
current emissions projections
• Not sufficient to reach 2020 pledge, nor compatible with US’ long-term target or 2°C
Mexico: New RE target as step to 2024 objectives
• Target for 2024 (35% of electricity generation) in General Law on Climate Change
• Interim target for 2018 to increase RE to 33% of total capacity
• Implies relevant reduction below baseline and stabilizes current emission levels of
electricity sector, more needed to achieve pledge
0
200
400
600
800
1000
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1400
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
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20
02
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08
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11
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14
20
17
20
20
20
23
20
26
20
29
Tota
l GH
G e
mis
sio
ns
[MtC
O2
e/a]
Reference level for pledge accordingto National Strategy
Pledge pathway (CAT assessment)
2013 current policy projections (CATassessment, low)
Updated current policy projectionsincluding RE targets (CAT assessment)
Historic emissions, incl. LULUCF
Japan: Future energy-mix still uncertain
• New ‘Strategic Energy Plan’ released in April 2014
• Nuclear energy supply will be restarted when given approval by nuclear regulation
authority, subject to local vote
• All energy supply options still under consideration; coal is “now being re-evaluated as
an important base-load power supply”
Australia: Recommended to increase ambition by CCA
www.climateactiontracker.org
• Current government continuing with repeal of existing climate legislation
• Funds reserved for Direct Action Plan are insufficient to achieve 5%
reduction target (Source: Reputex)
• Australian Climate Change Authority recommends:
• Raising ambition of the 2020 target to a 15% reduction below 2000
by 2020.
• Setting a 40-60% reduction target by 2030
• Using surplus from CP1 to increase 2020 target by another 4%
• Renewable Energy Target
• Current target: ~20% electricity from renewables by 2020
• Currently under review (due mid-2014)
• Likely to be reduced or cut
Australia: CCA recommendations
BACKGROUND SLIDES
www.climateactiontracker.org
Global emissions pathway to 2°C and 1.5°C
for 2020, 2025, 2030, 2050 and 2100