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Bear River Area Economic Update, September 2012. For more information, please visit http://jobs.utah.gov
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Bear River Area
Economic Update
By: Ivy Austria
Northern Regional Economist
Utah Department of Workforce Services
September 5th, 2012
Agenda
• Executive Summary
• Outlook for the Bear River Area
• National and Statewide
Employment
• Employment & Unemployment, and
Other Economic Indicators for: Box
Elder, Cache and Rich
Executive Summary
• As of July 2012, The U.S has an unemployment rate
of 8.3% and the State of Utah has a unemployment
rate of 6.0%. Box Elder county is 7.1%, Cache county
is 4.3%, and Rich County is 3.9%.
• Economic recovery within Bear River ESA has been
mixed, the overall outlook is slowly getting better.
• The latest quarterly employment data (first quarter
2012) shows that year-over change in employment
for the Bear River area is on the verge of
experiencing some growth, after eight consecutive
months of employment contraction.
Executive Summary
• Cache county employment has been a relatively
positive picture during the first quarter of 2012, Box
Elder is still struggling to recover from the massive
job losses in manufacturing that occurred between
2009 and 2011.
• Year-over-year employment changes in Rich County
show an improving trend that is likely to go positive at
some point between now and the end of the year.
Building activity is still slow in the region as are
taxable sales.
National and Statewide
Employment
Total Employment and Unemployment
Rates
U.S. and Utah Unemployment Rates:
2001 to 2012
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Utah US
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Statewide Employment (Seasonally
Adjusted): 2000 to 2012
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; May 2012
Utah Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric
Change July 2011-2012)
-900
300
500
800
1200
1800
1900
2300
4300
5000
7300 Professional and Business
Manufacturing
Education and Health
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
Information
Government
Natural Resources
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Construction
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Monthly Unemployment Rates*: 1976
to 2012
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
*Seasonally adjusted.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Disparity between Utah and the U.S.
Unemployment Rate
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 1980 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 1980
10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0
0 - 4
5- 9
10 - 14
15- 19
2 0 - 2 4
2 5- 2 9
3 0 - 3 4
3 5- 3 9
4 0 - 4 4
4 5- 4 9
50 - 54
55- 59
6 0 - 6 4
6 5- 6 9
70 - 74
75- 79
8 0 - 8 4
8 5+
Population
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0 - 4
5- 9
10 - 14
15- 19
2 0 - 2 4
2 5- 2 9
3 0 - 3 4
3 5- 3 9
4 0 - 4 4
4 5- 4 9
50 - 54
55- 59
6 0 - 6 4
6 5- 6 9
70 - 74
75- 79
8 0 - 8 4
8 5+
Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Dominating the Labor Force
Disparity between Utah and the U.S.
Unemployment Rate (Continued)
Utah’s Population by Age and Sex: 2005 U.S. Population by Age and Sex: 2005
150 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 0 50 ,0 0 0 10 0 ,0 0 0 150 ,0 0 0
0 - 4
5- 9
10 - 14
15- 19
2 0 - 2 4
2 5- 2 9
3 0 - 3 4
3 5- 3 9
4 0 - 4 4
4 5- 4 9
50 - 54
55- 59
6 0 - 6 4
6 5- 6 9
70 - 74
75- 79
8 0 - 8 4
8 5+
Population
15 10 5 0 5 10 15
0 - 4
5- 9
10 - 14
15- 19
2 0 - 2 4
2 5- 2 9
3 0 - 3 4
3 5- 3 9
4 0 - 4 4
4 5- 4 9
50 - 54
55- 59
6 0 - 6 4
6 5- 6 9
70 - 74
75- 79
8 0 - 8 4
8 5+
Population
Dominating the Labor Force
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Employment &
Unemployment
-16.9% -11.7%
-10.2% -6.2%
-5.0% -4.9%
-4.4% -4.3%
-3.7% -2.6%
-0.9% -0.8% -0.7% -0.3%
0.5% 0.6%
1.2% 1.7%
2.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8%
5.4% 7.3% 7.3%
14.8%
WayneEmery
PiuteDaggettMorgan
RichBox Elder
MillardBeaver
San JuanTooele
JuabKane
IronCarbonSevierCache
SummitWeber
StatewideSalt Lake
GarfieldDavis
Utah CountyWasatchSanpete
WashingtonGrandUintah
Duchesne
Year-Over Percent Change in Nonfarm Jobs By County:2011 to 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Box Elder County
Box Elder County Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates: 2009 - 2012
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Box Elder Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Box Elder County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 - 2012
-14.0%
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Box Elder Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Box Elder County Year - Over Job Change
by Industry: March 2011 to March 2012
-960
-300
-22
-4
7
8
14
51
62
218
229
Manufacturing
Government
Mining
Information
Other Services
Financial Activities
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Leisure/Hospitality
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Construction
Professional/Business Svcs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Box Elder County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
12.7%
3.0%
1.0%
3.3%
4.9%
3.5%
1.0%
2.9%
3.7%
4.2%
6.7%
5.0%
-66.7%
-17.9%
-11.7%
-4.2%
-4.0%
0.4%
2.2%
2.5%
4.0%
4.2%
24.5%
35.4%
Mining
Manufacturing
Government
Total
Information
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Financial Activities
Other Services
Leisure/Hospitality
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Construction
Professional/Business Svcs
Box Elder Utah
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Box Elder County Total Employment by
Industry: January – March 2012
28.4%
21.7%
14.7%
10.2% 8.3%
6.2% 5.6%
2.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.1%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Box Elder County Year-Over Manufacturing
Job Growth Rates: 2007 to 2012
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011* 2012
Total Nonfarm Employment Manufacturing
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
*2011 4th quarter data is preliminary
Box Elder County 4-Week Moving Average of
Initial Unemployment Claims: 2007 to 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
39.5 16.5 24.75 20.75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Box Elder County Weekly Average of 2nd
Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012
17 19
33
62
46
38
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Box Elder County Percent Change in
Permitted Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
17%
-12%
28%
-38.7%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1stQtr
Box Elder Utah
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Box Elder County Percent Change in Total
Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012
130.2% 113.4%
-18.8%
-48.6% -51.1%
93.4%
-51.3%
-27.9%
29.0% 13.0%
-6.0% -35.0% -26.0%
-4.0%
16.0%
-11.0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*YTD Apr
Box Elder Utah
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Box Elder County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2009 to 2012 (Quarterly)
17.0%
-12.0%
28.0%
-38.7%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr
Box Elder Utah
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Cache County
Cache County Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates: 2009 to 2012
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Cache Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cache County Year-Over Payroll Jobs by
Industry: 2009 to 2012
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Cache Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Cache County Year - Over Job Change by
Industry: March 2011 to March 2012
-54
-116
-67
4
21
70
74
79
149
210
241
Other Services
Construction
Professional/Business Svcs
Mining
Financial Activities
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Government
Information
Manufacturing
Leisure/Hospitality
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Cache County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
6.7%
2.9%
5.0%
1.0%
3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
1.0%
3.1%
3.7%
4.9%
12.7%
-6.0%
-5.3%
-1.3%
0.6%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
4.3%
5.5%
12.5%
66.7%
Construction
Other Services
Professional/Business Svcs
Government
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Total
Manufacturing
Financial Activities
Education/Health/Social Svcs
Leisure/Hospitality
Information
Mining
Cache Utah
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Cache County Total Employment by
Industry: January – March 2012
25.5%
21.0%
14.3%
11.5% 10.2%
7.8%
3.5% 2.8% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Cache County 4- Week Moving Average of
Initial Unemployment Claims: 2008 to 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
56.25 23.5 27.5 55.75
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Jan Apr Jul Oct
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Cache County Weekly Average of 2nd
Quarter Initial Claims: 2006 to 2012
32 31
47
90 91
79
57
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Cache County Percent Change in Permitted
Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
-21%
-11%
-1%
-43%
-5%
28%
-38%
74%
16%
-7%
-22%
-48% -1%
-11%
-3%
24%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr
Cache Utah
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Cache County Percent Change in Total Permit-
Authorized Construction Values: 2005 to 2012
-2.0%
29.3%
-4.0%
-42.8%
-12.6%
12.0%
-9.5%
-29.1%
28.7%
12.5%
-5.6% -34.5%
-26.1%
-2.7%
15.6%
-10.8%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cache Utah
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Cache County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2006 – 2012 (Quarterly)
10.5%
9.3% 9.8%
-2.7%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1stQtr
Cache Utah
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Rich County
Rich County Seasonally Adjusted
Unemployment Rates
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Rich Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Rich County Year-Over Payroll Jobs By Industry: 2009 to 2012
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012
Rich Utah U.S.
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Rich County Percent Change in Nonfarm
Jobs by Industry: March 2011 to 2012
2.9%
6.7%
3.5%
4.9%
1.0%
3.3%
3.1%
1.0%
3.7%
3.0%
5.0%
12.7%
-33%
-20%
-19%
-8%
-5%
-4%
0%
0%
4%
4%
15%
19%
Other Services
Construction
Trade/Transportation/Utilities
Information
Government
Total
Education/Health Social Svcs
Financial Actitivities
Leisure/Hospitality
Manufacturing
Professional/Business Svcs
Mining
Rich Utah
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Rich County Total Employment by Industry:
January – March 2012
47.6%
14.8% 11.6%
7.0% 5.9% 4.9% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Rich County Percent Change in Permitted
Dwelling Units: 2005 to 2012
62.5%
94.9%
-38.2%
-8.5% 0.0%
33.3%
-59.6%
-8.7%
-100.0%
6.4% 16.4%
-6.9%
-22.0%
-48.4%
-1.1%
-11.0% -3.4%
24.3%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr
Rich Utah
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Rich County Percent Change in Total
Permit-Authorized Construction Values: 2004 to 2012
73.7%
156.3%
-142.1%
218.8%
120.0%
-28.3% -44.1%
15.6%
-83.7%
12.2% 28.7%
12.5%
-5.6%
-34.5%
-2.6% -3.6%
15.6%
-10.8%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012YTD* Apr
Rich Utah
*January to April 2012 compared to January to April 2012
Source: Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research
Rich County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales: 2006 to 2012 (Quarterly)
29.7%
-3.8%
20.4% 6.1%
-1.9%
45.4%
-24.5% -2.6%
60.7%
1.1%
523.6%
442.0%
-37.1%
-91.8%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1st Qtr
Rich Utah
Source: Utah State Tax Commission
Q&A
For More Information:
Ivy Austria
Northern Region Economist
Department of Workforce Services
(801) 526-9467