Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Ali Shakouri

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009

Can Renewables Save the World?Ali Shakouri

Baskin School of EngineeringUniversity of California Santa Cruz

http://quantum.soe.ucsc.edu/

UCSC Silicon Valley Center/NASA Ames; 11 February 2009

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34%

8%

28%

6%

Share of WorldTotal

24%38%

26%

23%

7%

6%

2DOE Energy Information Administration (2007)

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type 1980-2030

13TW

2050: 25-30TW

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009US Energy Consumption

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Martin Green, UNSW

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PV

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

100

80

60

40

20

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

Cost of Renewable EnergyLevelized cents/kWh in constant $2000

Wind

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

40

30

20

10

0

10

8

6

4

2

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h Geothermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Source: NREL Energy Analysis OfficeThese graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data.Updated: October 2002

Biomass

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

15

12

9

6

3

0

CO

E c

ents

/kW

hSolar thermal

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

706050403020100

CO

E c

ents

/kW

h

Keith Wipke, NREL

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1,000,0001,000,000

100,000100,000

10,00010,000

1,0001,000

1010

100100

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1 Billion 1 Billion TransistorsTransistors

808680868028680286

i386i386i486i486

PentiumPentium®®

KK

PentiumPentium®® IIII

’’7575 ’’8080 ’’8585 ’’9090 ’’9595 ’’0000 ’’0505 ’’1010

PentiumPentium®® IIIIIIPentiumPentium®® 44

’’1515

Microprocessor Evolution

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McMasters & Cummings, Journal of Aircraft, Jan-Feb 2002

Airplane Speed/Efficiency Evolution

US Energy Intensity (MJ) per available seat km@ 160kg payload/seat

NLR-CR-2005-669;Peeters P.M., MiddelJ., Hoolhorst A.

Airplane Speed

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Vaclav Smil,Energy at the Crossroads, 2005

Felix’s forecasts of US energy consumption in year 2000 (early 1970’s)

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009A. Shakouri 11/25/2008

Nate Lewis, Caltech

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Amount of land needed for 20 TW at 1% efficiency:

9% of land

Chris Somerville, UC Berkeley

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Dan Kammen, Berkeley

Biofuels

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009Solar Energy Potential

12 TW

6.0-6.9

4.0-4.9

2.0-2.9

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Specific Energy (Wh/kg)

Spe

cific

Pow

er (W

/kg)

Combustion Engine

Energy Storage Options

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Vaclav SmilEnergy at the

Crossroads

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RejectedEnergy 61%

Lawrence Livermore National Lab., http://eed.llnl.gov/flow

Power ~3.3TW

1.3TW


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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• Fossil fuels have excellent energy characteristics. • Wind/ geothermal are among the cheapest of

renewables. There is potential for significant growth but they can not solve our energy problem.

• Solar energy has the potential to provide all our energy needs.– Currently expensive; it is intermittent.

• Currently no clear options for large scale energy storage

• Biomass has the potential to provide part of transportation energy needs – Cellulosic biofuels and algaes are interesting but they

have not demonstrated large scale/long term potential. One has to consider the full ecosystem impact (water, food, etc.).

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John Bowers, UCSB

World Average

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009Can Renewables Save the World?• If our goal is to have a planet where everybody has

a level of life similar to developed countries, energy need is enormous and it is not clear if we can do this by working on the supply side alone.

• Energy efficiency is helpful but it is not enough.• We need to consider changes in lifestyle, city

planning and social structure (transportation, lodging, grid).

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A. Shakouri 2/11/2009Plan B for EnergySeptember 2006; Scientific American; W. Wayt Gibbs

• WAVES AND TIDES (Reality factor 5)

• HIGH-ALTITUDE WIND (Reality factor 4)

• NANOTECH SOLAR CELLS (Reality factor 4)

• DESIGNER MICROBES (Reality factor 4)

• NUCLEAR FUSION (Reality factor 3)

• SPACE-BASED SOLAR (Reality factor 3)

• A GLOBAL SUPERGRID (Reality factor 2)

• SCI-FI SOLUTIONS (Reality factor 1)

– Cold Fusion and Bubble Fusion– Matter-Antimatter Reactors

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EE80J Renewable Energy SourcesSpring 2009, Also Summer 2009• Energy, power and thermodynamics• Home energy audit• Power plants, nuclear power• Solar energy • Wind energy, hydropower, geothermal • Biomass, hydrogen, fuel cells • Economics, Environmental and

Societal Impacts

CA/Denmark summer school (UCSC, UC Davis, UC Merced, Techn. Univ. Denmark, Roskilde)

EE181J Renewable Energies in Practice (July-August 2009)

UCSC Courses

Technology

Baskin UCSC Panel Feb 18 2009 Ali Shakouri