The Importance of Technology to Future Generations

[Lessons from Protecting the Ozone Layer]

Stephen O. Andersen, PhD Future Generations Consulting

Presentation Outline The Montreal Protocol protects the Earth against the harmful effects of ultraviolet radiation Pragmatic technology assessment by respected and influential experts overcame conflict and bias of policy makers and the public and successfully protected the ozone layer and is helping protect the climate Creating a prosperous economy for future generations requires breakthrough technology in low-carbon energy supply and carbon sequestration

The Climate is in Peril Climate change is jeopardizing prosperity and environmental quality; the question is where first, when and with what wrath 350 parts-per-million (PPM) is considered the safe atmospheric CO2limit, Earth is now at 400+ ppm – higher than any time in human history The strategy is to: Rapidly phase-down use of short-lived greenhouse gases Move intelligently toward low-carbon energy sources Increase photosynthesis and CO2 capture from power plants Drastically increase energy efficiency

Each Generation Builds for the Next

The affordable electricity we enjoy today results from electric utility investment long since paid for The affordable electricity and quality of life of future generations depends on investments made for cleaner and lower carbon power plants

Gigantic Projects Often Prove Essential to the Quality of Life

Canals, Railroads, Highways, and Aerospace Trams, Ferries, Bridges, and Tunnels Industrial and Residential Electrification and Natural Gas Distribution Clean Water and Clean Air Infrastructure Ozone Layer and Climate Protection

Ozone Protection was Daunting

When 24 countries signed the Montreal Protocol in 1987 there were few alternatives for the 240 sectors that used ozone-depleting substances (ODSs)

Weapons systems, refrigeration, air conditioning, thermal and safety foam, electronics, aerospace, medicine, sterilization, fire protection, pest control, and more

Today every country has joined the Montreal Protocol and 98% of ozone-depleting substances are phased out with alternatives so available that few citizens even noticed the market transformation

7  Stephen  Montzka,  NOAA/ESRL,  2006  

The  Montreal  Protocol  Phaseout    

Of  Ozone-­‐Depleting  Substances  (ODSs)  

The  Montreal  Protocol  has  slowed  

and  reversed  the  accumulation  of  

ozone  depleting  substances  (ODSs)  

in  the  stratosphere  as  measured  by  

effective  stratospheric  chlorine  

amounts.  

 

The  ODS  phaseout  reduced  net  

GWP-­‐weighted  emissions  from  ODSs  

in  2010  by  5-­‐6  times  the  reduction  

target  of  the  first  commitment  

period  (2008-­‐2012)  of  the  Kyoto  

Protocol.  

Technology Protects Environment

Science inspires international treaties and national policy But the truth is, it is engineering and technology that gets the job done Breakthrough technology is rarely easy, usually developed inside the industry, often controversial, and typically not appreciated for years to come

Billion Dollar Investments Protected the Ozone Layer

Chemical Companies Half a dozen companies built world-scale plants to produce CFC substitutes before toxicity testing was complete and customers were committed

Automobile Manufacturers Within six years of the signing of the Montreal Protocol CFCs were recovered and recycled from automobiles and an ozone safe refrigerant was implemented worldwide

Asthma and COPD Drug Companies Medicine delivered in more precise dose, with less drug interaction, and with more reliable prescription for each patient

Lessons from the Montreal Protocol

Companies whose chemicals threatened the ozone layer produce the chemicals that saved the ozone layer Breakthrough technology to replace ozone-depleting substances had priceless technical and economic side-benefits Companies that saved the ozone layer earned profits for stockholders, savings for customers, and a better life for everyone and everything

Lessons from the Montreal Protocol

Work Together—governments, companies and citizens transforming markets Performance not Prescription—using electricity carbon intensity, not fuel source, as the environmental metric Invest in the Future—recognizing that quality of life for future generations is worth the extra capital investment today Learn by Doing—building full-scale plants that demonstrate the power of engineering genius to protect environment at affordable costs

How is Kemper Like the Technology That Protects the Ozone Layer?

Already knew how to generate cleaner power Learned from operating the world’s most sophisticated carbon sequestration test center Perfected technology capable of burning low-ranked coal as cleanly as high-ranked coal and natural gas! Sought out the best lignite location Scaled up from proven pilot-scale projects Integrating the plant in a grid with diversified fuel choices continuously optimized for economy and environment

Thank You!

Dr. Stephen O. Andersen soliverandersen@aol.com